The withdrawal of troops from Syria is a year old. The Russian group has begun withdrawing troops from Syria

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption Putin announced the withdrawal of troops at the Khmeimim airbase

Vladimir Putin ordered the withdrawal of the Russian group of troops from Syria. To make this statement, the Russian President flew to this country for the first time during the war.

He announced the withdrawal of troops at the Khmeimim air base, standing next to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of the Russian military group Sergei Surovikin.

This is not the first time the Kremlin has declared a victorious end to its Syrian campaign. The BBC Russian Service asked military experts whether Russia will really withdraw all its troops from Syria this time?

• Putin flew to Syria and ordered the withdrawal of troops
• Two years of operation in Syria: what Russia has achieved and at what cost
• Russia announced the liberation of Syria. But the troops will not be withdrawn
• Iraq announces end to war with Islamic State

Igor Sutyagin, Senior Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies

Igor Sutyagin: Nothing will change, he is not going to bring anything out. The withdrawal of the Russian group - however, two bases will remain, the forces necessary to ensure the security of these bases, the forces necessary for the functioning of these bases... The group will remain as it was. They'll take it out a little, and they'll throw something new in there. That's all.

What is Russia doing there? It supports the Syrian regime, which supports Russia's ability to base itself in the Middle East. They don’t even really need the Syrian regime itself. A year ago they said: “We don’t mind if Bashar al-Assad leaves, let someone else come in - the main thing is that he guarantees that our two bases will remain there: air and sea. And everything else doesn’t matter to us.”

What is Russia doing there? It supports the Syrian regime, which supports Russian opportunities to be based in the Middle East. Igor Sutyagin, military expert

“We need our interests, our interests are to have two bases in the Mediterranean,” they say. Therefore, they are not going to take them out.

BBC: Will the Syrian army cope without the Russian group?

Igor Sutyagin: There is no Syrian army as such. There is the Iranian army, there are semi-partisan troops, the so-called militias - pro-Iranian militias, and severely demoralized troops, which are called the Syrian Arab Army. But it works very poorly.

This Syrian army does not have sufficient firepower, there is no artillery, there is no aviation, and the one that does exist does not fly normally or cannot hit the target.

They fly, but alone. They can be easily identified - if one plane arrives, it is definitely not Russian.

BBC: How Do you think the Islamic State (an organization banned in Russia) has been defeated?

Igor Sutyagin: It cannot be broken. It's like an abscess. Well, is Wahhabism broken in Chechnya or not? If we see that everything in Chechnya has been cleared, and all around is Dagestan... We just pressed on this abscess and all the pus flowed in the other direction.

The same goes for IS. Well, yes, it was possible to deprive him of his territory, but... You see, now they are coming to London, are they defeated or not? Terrorist attacks that are increasing in frequency and scale throughout Europe - are they defeated or not? As a state - yes, although it was their mistake by and large, but this is ideology.

Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Arsenal of the Fatherland"

Victor Murakhovsky: The group’s command headquarters, the Russian center for reconciliation of the parties, the Russian demining center, the air defense of the Khmeimim and Tartus air base, the ground security and defense forces of these facilities will most definitely remain, and part of the air group will remain to ensure current activities and carry out unexpected tasks. The military police who are stationed at checkpoints in de-escalation zones will remain. Regarding the special operations forces: probably some will leave, but some group will still remain.

We did not intend to withdraw completely. We have an agreement on the presence of an airbase, according to logistics, in Tartus. We are not leaving there, we are reducing the group, but not withdrawing it. Viktor Murakhovsky, military expert

We did not intend to completely withdraw [the group] - we have an agreement on the presence of an air base, according to logistics in Tartus. We are not leaving there; we reduce the grouping, but do not remove it.

BBC: But Putin ordered a conclusion to be made, how does this work out, adjusted for circumstances?

Victor Murakhovsky: Well, of course - to the conclusion. If we remember that at the peak of our presence we had approximately 35-36 attack aircraft on Khmeimim, plus 15-16 helicopters, plus military transport aviation operated on a temporary basis, reconnaissance aircraft were based, in general, up to 40 aircraft of various types, Now there will be much less.

But even at its peak it cannot be called a super-powerful aviation group. Well, what are 36 aircraft? This is approximately an aviation regiment.

Victor Murakhovsky: If we talk about military formations, an organized military force capable of waging a field war, then yes. These formations were destroyed and defeated, they lost the lion's share of their equipment, including armored vehicles, artillery, and so on.

But IS as a terrorist organization has not ceased to exist, because it is international and has various cells of supporters in Syria and Iraq, throughout the Middle East and Europe, the CIS and Russia.

But again, not only Daesh [another name for IS] was operating in Syria. from the editor], now the heirs of Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and al-Zinki continue to operate, which are especially strong in the province of Idlib, in the north of the province of Hama, in eastern Ghouta. But nevertheless, these groups still did not represent such an organized military force as IS.

Alexander Golts, deputy editor-in-chief of "Daily Journal"

Alexander Golts: It is clear that the operation has now entered a stage where nothing can be solved by air attacks.

If we do not assume that some kind of miracle happened, then we understand that the Syrian troops have been quite drained of blood over six years of war. Alexander Golts, military expert

But we know nothing about the troops present on the ground. Therefore, the authorities are not at all obligated to take them out or demonstrate this in any way.

BBC: Will the Syrian army be able to maintain security itself? Is she combat-ready?

Alexander Golts: If we do not assume that some kind of miracle happened, then we understand that the Syrian troops have been quite drained of blood over six years of war.

Just recently, “Red Star” published a report in which it very cheerfully describes how Russian military advisers teach 40-50-year-old Syrian reservists to fight. This suggests that all resources are depleted. The recent successes of government troops from this point of view are quite difficult to explain.

Now no one hides the fact that the operations were planned by Russian advisers; it is proudly announced. Syrian troops carried out deep, multi-pass operations - this suggests that there is a certain force on the ground that was not there before.

Either these are new Iranian troops, Hezbollah, or these are mercenaries from Wagner. On the other hand, if these units remain, then, in principle, the Syrians will be able to fight further.

Vladimir's working Monday began very early. Judging by open source data, already at five minutes to eight in the morning his plane took off from Adler and 45 minutes later landed at the Khmeimim airfield in Syrian Latakia - the main base of the Russian Aerospace Forces taking part in the civil war in this country on the side and at the invitation of the country's government and personally President Assad himself, whom Putin rescued from virtually hopeless situations twice - in 2013, when the United States almost came out against him under the pretext of the inadmissibility of the use of chemical weapons, and in 2015, when the banned in Russia controlled 70% of the country's territory and had a strategic initiative - met his , probably the savior on the tarmac.

The Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation, together with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Bashar Assad, held a working inspection of the Russian contingent in Syria, after which he announced the “defeat” of the terrorists and the winding down of an operation that had lasted more than two years, and ordered “a significant part of the contingent” to prepare to be sent home. According to General Sergei Surovkin, who commanded the contingent at the final stage of the operation, during the two years of war, about 7 thousand sorties of Russian aircraft and the same number of helicopters were carried out, about 32,000 terrorists and just under 400 tanks were destroyed, and almost 1,000 settlements were liberated.

“We will never forget the sacrifices and losses we suffered in the fight against terror, both here in Syria and here in Russia,” Putin said in his speech. “But this will not force us to fold our hands and retreat; this is not in the character of our people at all.” On the contrary, this memory will give us additional strength to eradicate the absolute evil that is terrorism, no matter what guise it hides or disguises itself under.”

According to official data, more than 40 Russian armed forces personnel were killed during the operation. Among them are high-ranking commanders - lieutenant generals and Alexander Vyaznikov.

“You return victoriously to your homes, to your loved ones, parents, wives, children, friends. The homeland is waiting for you, friends. Good luck. “Thank you for your service,” Putin summed up his speech. However, he later added that the permanent deployment points in Khmeimim and Tartus will remain and will function in full readiness.

After staying at the air base for three hours, the Russian President went further along the planned route (accompanied by Russian fighters) to Cairo. Here he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. After the overthrow of the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, who came to power in the wake of the Arab Spring, and the restoration of the secular regime in 2013, Moscow consistently built trusting relations with the military community of Egypt. One of the most important signs that mutual understanding between President Putin and Field Marshal el-Sisi could be considered was the purchase by Cairo from France of two Mistral-class helicopter carriers built for Russia after the introduction of international sanctions. Subsequently, the competition for the supply of attack helicopters for these ships was won by the Russian helicopter manufacturer Ka-52K.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and President of the Arab Republic of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi during a meeting in Cairo, December 11, 2017

The conversation, of course, was not limited to issues of military-technical cooperation. First of all, Putin, according to him, told his Egyptian colleague about some of the details of his conversation with Assad. Although Egypt is not a direct party to the Syrian conflict, in its status as a regional power it can become one of the guarantors of a peaceful post-war political settlement in the country. Moreover, some of the Islamists who were defeated in Syria have now apparently moved to Sinai and are planning to continue their activities there.

Al-Sisi, in a conversation with Putin, was also concerned about the issue of support on the conditionally second front against the Islamists in Libya. In addition, it was important for the Egyptian leader to hear the opinion of his Russian colleague on the issue of the capital of Israel. Let us recall that just the day before, the US President announced the transfer of his country’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which provoked a violent negative reaction from Arab countries, which considered this an aggressive gesture towards the Palestinian Authority.

“Russia fully supports all decisions that were made earlier on this issue. We consider any steps that prejudge the outcome of the dialogue between Palestinians and Israelis to be counterproductive. We believe that such steps are destabilizing, do not help resolve the situation, but, on the contrary, provoke a conflict,” Putin clearly but carefully outlined his position on this issue, in fact supporting the Arab side.

It is noteworthy that during joint statements, al-Sisi’s translator, whether by accident or on purpose, several times translated the Egyptian President’s address to Putin as “Your Majesty.” For the third time, such a misunderstanding caused the Russian leader to smile slightly.

From the leaders’ speeches following the meeting, it became clear that agreements were reached not only on geopolitical issues, but also on economic ones. Putin recalled that Russia is always ready to meet Egypt’s grain needs, as it has been doing for more than seven years. In addition, a ceremonial signing of the general contract for the construction of the first nuclear power plant in Egypt in the Ed-Dabaa region took place. The Russian national leader emphasized that the Egyptian side will receive not only the power plant itself, but also the corresponding technologies.

Finally, the most important issue for Russians in relations with Egypt—the restoration of direct air traffic after the terrorist attack over the Sinai in the fall of 2015—has also shown signs of a positive shift. Putin, with some reservations, said that in general Russia is ready to resume flights to the Egyptian capital Cairo.

The fact that the negotiations between al-Sisi and Putin were not only military, but also economic in nature was evidenced by the presence of the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the defense industry, the Minister of Industry and Trade, and the Minister of Finance Anatoly Siluanov at the formal speech of the Minister of Defense in charge of the defense industry.

The Russian President arrived at the next point of his route - the capital of Turkey - at about eight in the evening, where he immediately went to a gala dinner in his honor at the presidential palace of his colleague. As the press secretary of the Russian leader said during the flight, during this meeting the issue of nuclear energy was also planned to be discussed - the construction by the Russian side of the Akkuyu power plant.

As a result of the meeting, President Putin, at the insistence of Erdogan, had to once again outline his position on the status of Jerusalem and carefully align himself with Muslim countries on this issue. In addition, it was reported that final agreements had been reached on lending to Turkey for the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

The president's plane returned home to Adler just after midnight.

Today, October 12, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with judges of the Constitutional Court in Moscow.

Such a complex and dynamic schedule forces us to assume that the main candidate in the 2018 presidential elections is already in full swing with his campaign and is actually demonstrating his main achievements in the Middle East - virtually all independent leaders in the region recognize his (albeit not absolute) role as an arbiter.

Previously, a Gazeta.Ru source close to the Kremlin claimed that the foreign policy emphasis of the campaign would be focused specifically on successes in Syria and “normal relations with countries and countries.” All other international affairs are “not a topic that should be discussed.” Therefore, now that the foreign policy card has been played so clearly, we can assume that the main candidate’s election campaign will continue to focus on the domestic agenda.

The political scientist believes that Putin makes statements such as the withdrawal of troops from Syria and the resumption of air traffic with Egypt based on a request for change, which has already reached high levels in society and continues to grow stronger.

“The Kremlin needs to demonstrate changes wherever possible: in personnel policy, in working with the opposition, in international relations. Once the opportunity arose to change the agenda in Syria and Egypt, the authorities decided to take advantage of it,” the expert explains the pragmatic way of thinking of the authorities.

According to Gallyamov, people are starting to get tired of confrontation in all directions, so now they are trying to show them that the situation is normalizing. The Kremlin can soften its rhetoric in other areas, including in relation to Western countries, but it will not seek peace at any cost.

The political scientist is sure that Putin is most concerned with looking like a winner, not a loser. This means that he will never take a step that could be perceived as giving up positions.

“But they won’t climb into the barrel anymore either. The situation with the Olympics is an example. They made some noise and made some noise, and then went under a neutral flag,” the expert states.

Russian President Vladimir Putin personally arrived at the Khmeimim air base and gave the order to withdraw a significant part of the Russian troops from Syria. Russians on social networks welcome the victorious return of military personnel.

The Russian leader unexpectedly flew to Syria on December 11 on his way to Egypt. Putin met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, he was accompanied by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the commander of the Russian Armed Forces in the SAR, Sergei Surovikin. Speaking to Russian military personnel at the Khmeimim base, Putin announced the defeat of terrorists in Syria and the victorious return of a significant part of the Russian contingent to their homeland.

Vladimir Putin's announcement of victory in Syria and the news of the return of most Russian soldiers from this country were enthusiastically greeted on social networks. Users remind that at the beginning of the Syrian operation of the Russian Federation, Western and liberal experts predicted a “new Afghanistan” for Russia and declared the impossibility of defeating terrorists, but thoughtful actions, outstanding tactical planning of the command and unique modern weapons allowed the army to complete its task quickly, effectively, with minimal costs and losses.

Russian soldiers return from Syria with victory!! Russia alone did what a coalition of 68 countries led by the United States could not

Honey_cake (@elkis_07) December 11, 2017

⚡️ Putin gave the order to withdraw the Russian group from Syria

That's it, an era has passed. It’s also time to remember the cackling about the second Afghan from back in 2014.

Frispic Zalgo (@zalgovich) December 11, 2017

The Russians note that the Syrian operation allowed the Russian Federation to solve a number of key tasks: to gain a foothold in the strategically important Middle Eastern region, having received permanent airborne forces and naval bases, to demonstrate to the world the capabilities of its weapons and to break the US plans for the “color” destabilization of another country, which threatened Syria with turning into another Libya and a hotbed of international terrorism.

Putin instructed to begin the withdrawal of the Russian group of troops from Syria

Minus 1 geopolitical risk

GusevSergey |||QBF (@GusevSSergey)

ASTANA, December 13 – Sputnik, Sergey Kim. Sputnik Kazakhstan discussed the possible consequences of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria with the head of the Almaty office of the Institute of World Economy and Politics under the First President’s Foundation, Askar Nursha. The interlocutor expressed an opinion about how Putin’s order could affect the Astana negotiation process and why a large part of the Russian military is leaving Syria right now.

Sputnik / Serikzhan Kovlanbaev

The other day, Russian President Vladimir Putin, while at the Khmeimim airbase, announced the withdrawal of a significant part of the Russian military contingent from Syria. Putin's trip occurred shortly after his words about the complete defeat of the Islamic State on the territory of the republic.

- Putin gave the order to withdraw troops from Syria. Is the Syrian war coming to an end?

“I think that the Syrian crisis is far from over. I will assume that Russia is withdrawing its troops because the authorities of this country consider the assigned tasks to be completed. I think that the limited military presence necessary to maintain the military infrastructure will be maintained, and Russia will continue joint actions with Iran and Turkey, as well as with the Syrian opposition group that is participating in the Astana process.

- Could the withdrawal of Russian troops somehow affect the agenda of the Astana process?

— I would say that negotiations are currently underway between different participants in the Syrian settlement about the fate of Bashar al-Assad. And, naturally, it is important for Russia that after its departure the current regime does not collapse. Russia intervened in the conflict when opponents of the current government of Syria practically besieged Damascus and took one block after another. Therefore, there is a risk that the situation may repeat itself. Another point is that ISIS’s military resources were undermined, since it turned out to be impossible for it to conduct combat operations on several fronts against the regular army. The outcome was a foregone conclusion.

- Is there a risk of militants returning from the border areas to Syria after the withdrawal of Russian troops?

— I’m afraid that you are right, there is a risk of terrorists “flowing” from one region to other regions.

- Could the withdrawal of troops, on the contrary, prolong the conflict, including on the territory of Syria?

— The problem is that the Syrian crisis consists of several nodes. Cutting one node does not automatically cut the others. That's the problem. Conventionally, we can distinguish three “intra-Syrian” parties to the conflict: the Syrian government led by Assad, terrorists and the Syrian opposition.

With the departure of the Islamic State (banned in Kazakhstan, Russia and a number of others - approx.) - and it is still premature to talk about its final departure from the region - contradictions remain between the Syrian government and the opposition. The basic conflict - the future of Syria, the political structure - will be resolved by the government and the opposition in the absence of terrorists.

Another point is that the contradiction over the Kurdish issue has not been resolved. Until a certain period, official Damascus and the opposition acted as natural allies against ISIS, but if we talk about ISIS being removed from the scene, there is a risk that after one of the pieces on the chessboard falls, the previous lines of contradiction may be restored again - on issues control of territories on the issue of Kurds within Syria. One more point: there are contradictions along the lines of the Russia-Iran-Turkey coalition. Turkey is a member of NATO, it is aligned with Russia and Iran on some issues, but on others there may not be a unity of opinion. The Kurdish issue is contributing to the emergence of a rift between the positions of Russia and Turkey. There are also contradictions in the international coalition of Western countries and a number of Arab countries. An independent participant in the conflict is Israel, which continues to bomb the infrastructure of Syrian government forces, almost regardless of what situation unfolds in the theater of operations, and which does not want to allow the strengthening of pro-Iranian forces in Syria. Everything is not simple there either. On all other lines of conflict, the resolution has not yet arrived.

In the context of the possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the government of Bashar al-Assad and the opposition, why does Russia need to withdraw that military contingent right now?

“It seems to me that it is important for Russia here that it does not end up, like the Soviet Union, in a “second Afghanistan.” For example, the “Afghan” factor constantly hovers in the political and social space of Russia. Moscow is not bogged down in the Syrian conflict.

On the other hand, Russia did not take upon itself the responsibility to participate in all conflicts in Damascus - with the opposition, Israel, and the pro-American coalition. I think now is the most favorable moment for the withdrawal of troops, because before it was too early, and then it will be too late. But in conflicts like Syria, there is always the threat of the resurgence of terrorist groups. Because the very emergence of the Islamic State became possible due to the weakening of the power of the central government. But now this power is even weaker than it was before.

The question arises: how combat-ready are the Syrian government troops? Do they still have resources? And the second question is how the opposition will behave. All this will be decided at the sites not only of Astana, but also of Geneva.