Lesson summary "numbers and natural population growth." Presentation on the topic "Number and natural growth of the population of Russia." Population of Russia

Population is a continuously renewed population in the process of reproduction of people living on the earth as a whole or within any part of it.

The number and trends in its change are the result of natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Natural population movement (reproduction)- a set of processes of fertility, mortality, natural increase or natural decline. The natural movement of the population is ensured by the reproduction regime.

Under reproduction population understand the continuous renewal and change of human generations (depending on the ratio of fertility and mortality, population reproduction can be expanded, simple or narrowed). Complex demographic processes determined by the historical development and demographic characteristics of the nation, as well as the socio-economic living conditions of people, have a decisive impact on population reproduction.

Mechanical movement- migration processes or movement of population from one area to another.

Natural and mechanical motion are usually measured in special units - ppm (or unit per thousand).

The most accurate data on the number and characteristics of the inhabitants of a particular country are provided by general population censuses. At the same time, for each resident of the country, a questionnaire is filled out containing a wide range of questions (gender, age, level of education, nationality, religion, employment, living conditions, etc.). On the territory of Russia, general population censuses were carried out in 1897, 1926, 1937, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010.

During most population censuses, the actual population (found in any territory at the time of the census) was also determined. and permanent(living in this territory most of the year). On a national scale, the size of the current and permanent population is almost the same. But for specific areas the differences can be significant. In large cities with a migration influx, as a rule, the actual population is larger than the permanent one, while in small towns and rural areas the permanent population is usually larger than the actual one. In resort areas during the holiday season, the actual population can exceed the permanent one several times.

In the period between general censuses, current population records are kept, in which for each annual period the number of births and deaths is recorded, as well as the number of people who arrived and left for a particular territory. Accordingly, information on the population of the country and its individual parts can be obtained for each year (at its beginning or on average for the year), but this will be generalized data without disclosing most of the individual characteristics of the inhabitants (ethnic composition, level of education, etc.).

The territory that is part of the Russian Federation today was inhabited by people 10-12 thousand years ago. But the population there grew very slowly throughout almost this entire period. only by the beginning of the 18th century. The population on the territory of modern Russia reached 10 million people, and by the end of this century exceeded 20 million people. In the 19th century population growth has accelerated somewhat. By the middle of the century, the population was about 40 million people, and by the time of the first general census (1897) - 67.5 million people out of 124.6 million people living in the Russian Empire at that time.

Particularly rapid population growth was observed in the first decade of the 20th century. In 1913, the population on the territory of modern Russia reached 90 million people, i.e. the annual growth rate during that period was about 2%. The First World War and the Civil War, as well as the economic devastation, famine and epidemics they caused, led to a decline in the country's population. By 1920, fewer people lived on the territory of Russia than in 1913 - about 88 million people (i.e., depopulation occurred). This period became the first demographic crisis on the territory of the country in the twentieth century.

During the existence of the USSR, the country's population gradually grew, but with a slowdown and new demographic crises. The overall slowdown in population growth (from an annual 1.5% in the 20s and 30s to 0.7% in the 80s) is associated with the demographic transition that the country experienced in the first half of the 20th century. At the same time, there was no “demographic explosion” (multiple and rapid increase in population), currently characteristic of developing countries, which is explained by the presence of several demographic crises. The second demographic crisis in Russia broke out in the early 30s. Its peak occurred in 1933 and 1934. The crisis was caused by a massive famine that followed the forced collectivization of the country's agriculture. The third demographic crisis occurred during the Great Patriotic War. By its beginning (in 1941), about 111 million people lived on the territory of modern Russia, and in 1946 - only 98 million people. Natural population growth over 5 years was at least 5 million people. That is, losses during the war years amount to more than 18 million people. Thus, without demographic crises, the population of Russia by the 90s could have been more than 200 million people. In reality the numbers were significantly lower. Independent Russia, formed after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, became the sixth most populous country on Earth (148.7 million people at the beginning of 1992) after China, India, the USA, Indonesia and Brazil. At the beginning of the 21st century. Pakistan and Bangladesh have also overtaken Russia in terms of population.

Since 1993, the country's population began to decline, fourth in the twentieth century. demographic crisis, which continues to this day. Depopulation affected almost the entire territory of the Russian Federation. By the beginning of 2006, the country's population had dropped to 142.8 million people. The reduction occurred due to a very significant natural decline - the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births . The migration outflow from the country is insignificant and is offset by the influx of population from the former Soviet republics

The situation began to change only in the early 2000s. The natural population growth in Russia in 2014 was 33.7 thousand people, in 2013 this figure was 19.1 thousand people. In 2014, for the first time in the modern history of Russia, 1.947 million children were born in the country.

By the end of 2014 in Russia, the mortality rate among children under five decreased by three times compared to 1990, and maternal mortality decreased by 4.5 times compared to 1990. According to operational data from Rosstat, in August 2015 there was an increase in the value of natural increase in the Russian Federation compared to August last year by 3,481 people. The Central Federal District demonstrates a positive growth value (in the Central Federal District, a positive monthly growth was recorded in July 2015, for the first time since 1991). A decrease in natural growth was demonstrated only by the North Caucasus and Crimean Federal Districts.

According to Rosstat, in 2014 the average life expectancy in Russia is 71 years: 65.6 years for men and 77.2 years for women. After a serious drawdown in the nineties, it returned to the indicators of the late USSR and in 2010 exceeded them. In the 2010s, Russia entered the top five countries with the greatest increase in life expectancy - the periods from 1990 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2013 were compared. In Russia, the increase in life expectancy for men was more than +7.3 years, and +6.5 years were added to the healthy life span. At the moment, Russia is in 4th place in terms of increase in life expectancy. It should be noted that today there is no unambiguous scientific explanation for such a difference in the average life expectancy of men and women in Russia.

Whether the long-term trend of population decline has been reversed or only temporarily disrupted remains to be seen. Now it can be noted that the population of Russia reached its greatest size - almost 148.6 million people - by the beginning of 1993. In 1993, population decline was recorded for the first time. After a slight increase in 1994, it became stable - the population of Russia was declining until 2009, by the beginning of which its number had dropped to 142.7 million people (5.8 million people less than in 1993). Already in 2008, the decline decreased significantly, and in 2009-2013 the number of Russians increased by almost 929 thousand people. As a result, by the beginning of 2014, the population of Russia approximately corresponded to the level of the mid-1980s (Fig. 3.1).

Figure 3.1 Resident population of Russia, 1960-2014, millions of people at the beginning of the year*

* according to current accounting data – as of January 1; according to the population censuses of 1959 and 1970 - as of January 15; 1979 – on January 17; 1989 - on January 12.

However, the population is not increasing in all regions of Russia. In 2013, the population of the Volga (-1.2%) and Far Eastern (-4.0%) federal districts continued to decline, and in the Far East the population decline increased compared to 2012 (-2.3%). In the remaining federal districts, population growth was observed, but its acceleration compared to 2012 was noted only in the Central, Northwestern and, to a lesser extent, in the North Caucasus federal districts.

As for the regions-subjects of the federation, population growth was observed, as in 2012, in 29 regions-subjects of the federation, and in the remaining 54 regions the population was declining. The value of the overall growth coefficient varied from -13.6% in the Magadan region to 24.2% in the Republic of Ingushetia (in 2012 from - 13.9 to 26.9% in the same regions), and in the central half of the regions - from - 5.4% to 2.1% with a median value of -2.2% (from -5.6% to 2.4% with a median value of -2.0% in 2012). The range of variation has decreased somewhat, and a trend towards a reduction in growth has emerged.

In addition to the Republic of Ingushetia, St. Petersburg (20.5%), the Chechen Republic (16.4%), the Krasnodar Territory (13.8%), the Moscow Region (12.0%) and Moscow had high population growth in 2013 (10.7%), as well as the Tyumen region (10.1%). Population growth in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra, Novosibirsk and Leningrad regions decreased slightly compared to 2012, amounting to 7-8%. The population growth of the Kaliningrad region, on the contrary, increased slightly, although it did not exceed 9%.

In absolute terms, the most significant population growth was recorded in Moscow (128.7 thousand people), St. Petersburg (103.9), Moscow region (85.4) and Krasnodar Territory (74.0).

The most intense population decline in January-December 2013 was observed, as many times in the past, not only in Magadan, but also in the Jewish Autonomous (-13.3%) and Murmansk (-12.1%) regions. About 9-10% was the population decline in the Kurgan, Arkhangelsk, Bryansk regions and the Komi Republic.

In 2013, for the first time in 21 years, there was a small natural increase - 23 thousand people - but population growth was mainly due to migration.

The highest birth rate in recent years has been observed in women aged 25-29 years. For the first time it exceeded the birth rate in the 20-24 year old group in 2008, and in 2009-2012 the gap between them only widened. In 2012, for the first time since the 1980s, it exceeded the level of 100 births per 1000 women (106.6%). The birth rate among women 20-24 years old, after an almost two-fold decline in the second half of the 1980s and in the 1990s, remains relatively stable at about 90 births per 1000 women. The growing birth rate of women aged 30-34 is gradually approaching this level (74.2% in 2012). Compared to the mid-1990s, the birth rate of women aged 35-39 has tripled (to almost 35%). The birth rate for women under 20 years of age has stabilized at 27%. In the age group of 40-45 years, it gradually increases, but remains insignificant (about 7%). In the age group of 45-49 years, there are also signs of an increase in the birth rate, but in general it has virtually no effect on the overall birth rate, and its level is close to zero.

Population migration

The mechanical movement of the population (migration) can be both external (emigration and immigration) and internal (intraregional and interregional). In addition, there is a distinction between pendulum migration - the daily movement of the population to work or to meet social needs.

When analyzing migration processes they can be The following quantitative indicators were used:

The scale of migration (migration turnover) is the number of arrivals and departures to an area over a certain period of time (year). The difference between the number of arrivals and departures is called the migration balance. It can be positive and negative. The largest positive balance of migration with a significant scale of migration indicates a strong turnover of personnel, poor survival in a new place, that is, low efficiency of migration;

Migration efficiency is calculated as the ratio of the balance of migration to the number of arrivals (in%):

C - migration balance;

K - number of arrivals;

E - migration efficiency.

The intensity of migration is measured by the intensity coefficient, which characterizes the ratio of the size of migration to the total population in the territory under consideration.

Kig – migration intensity coefficient;

V ig - migration flows from i - territory to g - s;

S, is the population of the i -th territory.

These coefficients make it possible to estimate the intensity of migration for individual territories and are a measure suitable for comparing migrations in time and space.

Migration is relocation, movement of people between populated areas. In modern society, the degree of mobility of people (the share of people participating in migration) is constantly increasing. Accordingly, the growth of population mobility can be used to judge the overall level of development of the country. The more migrants, the more active independent people in society who quickly adapt to innovations and changes in the external conditions of their lives. In contrast, in traditional societies, residents very rarely left the boundaries of the localities in which they were born, trying to live in accordance with age-old traditions. Any innovations in such homogeneous societies were introduced with great difficulty. But they were easier to manage than modern society, consisting of a large number of social groups and individuals who are aware of and defend their interests.

Migration affects changes in the population of a particular territory not only directly, but also indirectly. Since resettlement for permanent residence usually occurs at a young age, a young age structure is formed in areas of population influx, which leads to an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. That is, the population is growing rapidly not only due to migration, but also due to high natural increase. On the contrary, in the outflow areas the old age structure of the population is formed. Over time, the mortality rate becomes greater than the birth rate, and the population decreases not only due to outflow, but also due to natural decline.

Migration also affects the homogeneity of the national (ethnic) composition of the population of a given territory. In areas of long-term outflow of population, the ethnic composition is usually homogeneous. The vast majority of residents are local natives. They are distrustful of visitors, especially if they are of a different nationality. Interethnic contacts and exchange of cultures in such areas are extremely difficult. On the contrary, in areas of population influx, the majority of residents are newcomers and they often belong to a wide variety of ethnic groups. Cultural and interethnic interaction (including interethnic marriages, adaptation to the customs of other peoples) occurs relatively easily.

The economic significance of migration lies in the redistribution of labor resources between regions of the country or different states. In this case, there is usually a movement of the population from areas of old development to areas of new development, where there are not enough workers, as well as from states with an excess of labor resources to those states where they are lacking. But during periods of economic crises, when the established territorial proportions of the economy are violated, reverse flows of migrants from areas of new development or countries that received migrants are also possible. First of all, recent migrants who have not taken root in a new place begin to return.

There are several classifications of migration, the most important of which are three.

Firstly, all migrations are divided into internal- within one country and external– movement of people between countries. External migrations, in turn, are divided into emigration(leaving the country) and immigration(entry into the country). External migrations played a decisive role in the formation of the population of some modern states (USA, Canada, etc.). But in most countries of the world, internal migration is of primary importance.

Secondly, all migrations are divided into irrevocable(relocation to permanent residence in another locality) and returnable when there is no change of permanent residence. Refundable migrations can be seasonal (most often they are associated with seasonal agricultural work), pendulum (people live and work in different localities, making daily trips) and irregular (on vacation, on a business trip, etc.). In the past, irrevocable migrations were of major importance, having a decisive influence on the human settlement of the Earth. In modern society, return migrations are the main ones.

Thirdly, all migrations are divided into voluntary And forced. Voluntary migrations occur for specific reasons and may be ore(for the purpose of employment), recreational(to rest), cultural and everyday(for shopping, services), etc. Forced migrants are divided into refugees(who cannot remain in the same place due to a threat to life, health and welfare) and deportees(who are resettled forcibly). Ideally, all migration should be only voluntary, but in practice, achieving this in the foreseeable future is impossible.

On the territory of Russia, internal migrations have almost always been larger than external ones. Only three are documented period of intense external migrations.

1. The end of the 18th century. - the beginning of the 19th century, when there was active immigration of residents of Western European countries to the territory of the Russian Empire. Mostly Germans resettled, but also French, Danes, Dutch and others. Russia then invited everyone to develop empty lands in the south and east of the country. The bulk of those who arrived settled in the Lower Volga region. In total, more than 2 million people arrived, which was a significant figure for the country’s population at that time.

2. End of the 19th century. - the beginning of the twentieth century, when Russia was a country of active emigration. At the beginning of the period, mainly the rural population left Russia from the overpopulated areas of the central part of the country (the territory of the modern Central Black Earth, Central regions), but not only for economic reasons (lack of land), but also for national and religious ones - Jews and Old Believers left. Migrants went mainly to the USA and Canada, which during this period invited everyone to develop their empty lands. At the end of the period (after the outbreak of the First World War and especially after the events of 1917), the country was left mainly by representatives of the bourgeoisie, nobility, clergy, and intelligentsia, who were not satisfied with the new government. They were sent primarily to Western European countries. In total, more than 10 million people left Russia during this period.

3. The modern period, which began in the mid-80s. The territory of Russia was left by many representatives of those ethnic groups that have their own states - Jews, Germans, Greeks, and then (after the collapse of the USSR) representatives of the peoples of the new independent states - Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Moldovans, etc. Migration flows went to the corresponding countries (Israel, Germany, Greece, Kazakhstan, etc.). At the same time, Russians and representatives of other Russian peoples (Tatars, Mordovians, etc.) began to intensively return to Russia from the newly independent states. Since the second half of the 90s, representatives of many indigenous peoples of neighboring countries, attracted by job opportunities, began actively moving to Russia. Most of all, residents of Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasian states participate in such trips (mostly return migrations).

In total, several million new residents have moved to Russia over the modern period. The flow of migrants has significantly reduced the decline in the country's population, observed due to high natural decline.

Internal migrations throughout almost the entire 20th century. preserved the directions formed during previous centuries. The settlement of the northern and eastern regions of modern Russia took place, as well as the resettlement of Russians and other Russian peoples to the Soviet Union republics. True, since the 70s, Russia began to have a positive migration balance in exchange with the southern republics of the USSR, where, due to high natural growth, “demographic pressure” began on representatives of non-indigenous nationalities.

The regions of the Asian part of Russia and the European North, where new natural resources were being developed, were particularly characterized by a strong migration influx. People were attracted there by various benefits: high wages, lowering the retirement age, etc.

The Central and Northwestern regions were also characterized by a stable migration influx, but this was due to the intensive arrival of migrants to Moscow (with the Moscow region) and St. Petersburg (with the Leningrad region). There was an outflow of population from the remaining regions of these two districts. Migration played a special role in the formation of the modern population of the Kaliningrad region, whose indigenous inhabitants were taken to Germany in 1945, and in return immigrants arrived from Russia and other union republics of the former USSR.

The North Caucasus region had a relatively small migration influx, in the Russian regions of which, due to favorable natural conditions, people of retirement age who had worked in the northern regions willingly settled. The national republics of the North Caucasus, as a rule, had a negative balance of migration due to agricultural overpopulation caused by high natural increase. Territories of the Volga and Ural regions in the first half of the twentieth century. had, as a rule, a positive balance of migration, and in the second half it was close to zero or negative. The territories of the Volga-Vyatka and Central Chernozem regions were characterized by a stable migration outflow. That is why the population of these two regions by the end of the twentieth century. decreased compared to its first half.

In addition to inter-district movements, the relocation of rural residents to urban settlements was on a huge scale. In some years they amounted to more than 1 million people. The first to join them were the residents of the Central and Northwestern regions (at the end of the 19th century), then the population of other Russian regions, and by the 80s of the 20th century. - and residents of almost the entire territory of Russia.

In the 90s, the directions of internal migration changed to almost the opposite. In the context of the socio-economic crisis, “northern” benefits lost their significance, and a massive outflow of population from the northern and eastern parts of the country began. Former outflow regions in the old developed areas of the country, on the contrary, began to have a significant positive balance of migration (with the exception of the North Caucasus republics, where outflow due to agricultural overpopulation and complex interethnic relations remained). Mostly people who had previously left for the northern and eastern regions of the country began to return to them. For several years (1992-1994), there was also an outflow of urban residents to rural areas, but then the migration balance of urban settlements again became positive. The overall mobility of the population has decreased as a result of the socio-economic crisis.

According to rough estimates, more than 20 million employed and students in Russia participate in daily commuting. They are especially developed within urban agglomerations, where flows of commuting migrants move mainly between the suburban area and the central city. Thus, about 800 thousand people come to Moscow from the suburban zone of the capital agglomeration every day to work or study, and to meet them, about 100 thousand people leave Moscow for suburban settlements.

Classic seasonal migrations in Russia are developed in the very north - in the tundra and forest-tundra zones, as well as in the mountainous and foothill regions of the south of the country. In both cases, they are associated with the specifics of pasture animal husbandry (reindeer husbandry or sheep husbandry), when there are winter and summer pastures remote from each other, to which seasonally inhabited settlements are attached. Reindeer herders live in the north in the summer - in the tundra, and in the winter in the south - in the forest-tundra. Sheep farmers live in the mountains in the summer, where summer pastures are located, and in the winter in the foothills near the winter pastures. With some degree of convention, seasonal migrations include the widespread summer trips of city dwellers to the countryside in the 90s - to their summer cottages and gardens or to visit rural relatives. At the same time, city residents provide themselves with some types of food and relax, and rural residents receive the labor assistance they need during the summer harvest.

Forced migrations occur on a significant scale in Russia. They received great development back in the 19th century, when, after the end of the Caucasian wars, many representatives of the Muslim North Caucasian peoples left their homeland: Adygeans, Circassians, Shapsugs, Abazas. They were forced to leave for the Ottoman Empire, which was close to them in religion - mainly to the territory of modern Turkey. But at the same time, during this period, Orthodox South Slavs and Greeks, who settled in the Black Sea regions of the country, as well as Armenians, fled to Russia from the Ottoman Empire. Sakhalin, which until 1917 served as a place of hard labor, was populated by exiled settlers.

Forced migrations (deportations) became especially widespread in the 30s and 40s of the 20th century. Initially, “dispossessed” peasants and other “enemies of the people” (former nobles, clergy, members of pre-revolutionary parties and other groups) were deported, who were sent to the North, to Siberia, to semi-desert regions of the country, including to large construction projects of the first Soviet five-year plans ( White Sea-Baltic Canal, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur, etc.). Then, as part of the preparation for the theater of military operations, the resettlement of entire “unreliable” peoples began. In 1937, Koreans from the Primorsky Territory were taken to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. In 1939, Poles were deported from the newly annexed regions of western Ukraine and Belarus to Siberia. In 1941, the Germans, who lived mainly in the Volga region, were resettled to Siberia and Kazakhstan.

The deportation of peoples reached its greatest scale in 1943-1944, when Kalmyks (from the Volga region), Chechens, Ingush, Karachais and Balkars (from the North Caucasus), Crimean Tatars (from Crimea), Turks- Meskhetians (from Georgia), Greeks (from the Black Sea region) and a number of other peoples. These forced relocations were accompanied by large losses (up to 30% of all deportees died or only in the first time after the resettlement) and still have a negative impact on interethnic relations in the country. At the end of the 50s, the Kalmyks and peoples of the North Caucasus were returned to their homeland, but it was not possible to completely restore the previous situation, since neighboring peoples were resettled to the lands of the deportees.

A new surge in forced migration has been observed since the late 80s, when, as a result of regional wars and armed conflicts, numerous flows of refugees and internally displaced persons appeared on the territory of the former USSR. The largest masses of forced migrants (citizens of Russia) and refugees (citizens of other countries) resulted from the wars: Karabakh (in Azerbaijan), Transnistria (in Moldova), Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian (in Georgia), inter-Tajik (in Tajikistan), Chechen ( in the Chechen Republic), as well as armed conflicts: Ossetian-Ingush (in the Republic of North Ossetia), Uzbek-Meskhetian (in Uzbekistan), Kyrgyz-Uzbek (in Kyrgyzstan). In many cases, flows of refugees and internally displaced persons went from neighboring countries to the territory of Russia, and in case of conflicts within Russia, to neighboring regions. The highest concentration of refugees and internally displaced persons is observed in the republics of North Ossetia-Alania and Ingushetia - up to 10% of the local population. In addition, the Krasnodar and Altai territories have a large number of refugees and internally displaced persons (more than 30 thousand people each).

However, the first place in terms of attractiveness for migration in 2014 was not Moscow, but the Moscow region, where the migration increase for 8 months of 2014 amounted to 67,918 people.

Moscow was able to grow due to migration by only 22,366 people - this is the third place in Russia after St. Petersburg.

The northern capital turned out to be somewhat more attractive for visitors; the population growth during this period amounted to 23,094 people.

In fourth place in the ranking is the Krasnodar Territory with a migration increase of 31,113 people. And the Leningrad region closes the top 5 regions of Russia in terms of attractiveness for migration, where from January to August 2014 the population grew by 14,811 people due to visitors.

Among the leaders in migration growth were also:

in the North Caucasus Federal District–Stavropol Territory (+1935 people);

in the Volga Federal District–Republic of Tatarstan (+4596 people);

in the Ural Federal District– Tyumen region without auto districts (+7252 people);

in the Siberian Federal District– Novosibirsk region (+5831 people);

in the Far Eastern Federal District– Amur region (+526 people).

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Larisa Petrova

finished work for schoolchildren’s research and development work

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Introduction ……………………………………………………………………….3

Chapter I. Theoretical study of the concept of population movement

1. Natural population movement………………………………………………………5
2. Mechanical movement of the population…………………………………..6

Chapter II. Number and population growth of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory for the period 2008-2012

2.1. Planning stage of the study…………………………………………9

2.2. Practical stage of the study………………………………………………………10

2.3. The final (analytical) stage of the study………………...13

Conclusion …………………………………………………………………...15

Bibliography…………………………………………………….........18

Application

Introduction

Relevance of the research topic:One of the most important problems of demography is population movement. This is a complex social process that affects many socio-economic aspects of the life of the population. The movement changes the structure and size of the population. Currently, 347 people live in the village of Talazhanka. We believe that the demographic situation in our village remains relevant at the moment. Is it a lot or a little? How many people lived in our village 5 years ago, how did the population change during the 21st century?

We decided to find answers to our questions. To do this, they began to look for sources of information and found out that there were not so many of them. The fact is that no one has done such research. Therefore, my geography teacher and I turned to the village council for information, where we were given the opportunity to study the house-to-house book on our village.

Based on the information collected, we decided to trace how the demographic profile of our village has changed over 5 years.

Field of study:population size and growth

Subject of study:population of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory for 2008-2012.

Purpose of the study:to trace the dynamics of changes in the number and population growth of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory for the period 2008-2012.

To achieve this goal, it was necessary to solve the following tasks :

1. Study the theoretical foundations on the research topic, the formula for calculating natural population growth.
2. Conduct an analysis of the house register kept in the Talazhansky village council.
3. Analyze the birth and death rates, the population of the village. Talazhanki.
4. Compare natural population growth with. Talazhanki of the Kazachinsky district of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for 2008-2012.
5. Conduct a survey among school students.
6. Produce brochures upon completion of the study.

Research methods:

1. Analysis of statistical data.
2. Comparison of results.
3. Questioning.
4. Generalization of the research results.

Main result of the study:determining the dynamics of population size and growth, forecasting the population size for the next 5 years in the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk region.

Suggestions for the practical use of research results:We believe that our research should be of interest to the district administration and social services, which, based on our results, should build social policy in our region.

Chapter 1. Theoretical study of the concept of natural and mechanical movement of the population

1. Natural population movement

The population is understood as a socio-temporal and spatial-territorial collection of people that is formed and continuously renewed in the process of production and reproduction of life. That is, the population is the totality of people living on Earth as a whole or within any part of it (country, group of countries), the basis and subject of production and all social relations.

When considering the issue of population movement, it is customary to distinguish between natural and mechanical movement (mechanical movement is usually understood as population migration).

Natural population movement refers to demographic events that naturally affect population size. These events include births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

Natural movement can also be defined as a natural regulator of the biological process of all life on Earth, including humans, manifested through such indicators as fertility, mortality, natural growth (determined by the difference between fertility and mortality).

These indicators determine the total population of the country as a whole. In the context of individual regions, natural and mechanical growth can have different effects on changes in the total population of the country and territory. As a rule, in areas of pioneer development, mechanical influx at the initial stage of the formation of industrial hubs and territorial production complexes play a greater role than natural growth in population changes. In old industrial areas, natural growth plays a dominant role. Among the factors determining fertility and mortality are the following:

1). Sex and age structure of the population.

2). Marriages and divorces.

3). Regional and national traditions.

4). Standards of living:

– cash income and expenses of the population;

– production of consumer goods;

– provision of permanent work;

– development of the healthcare system;

– provision of housing;

- the level of education.

5). Ecological situation.

6). Fertility.

1. Mechanical movement of population

The mechanical movement of the population implies migration. In a broad sense, migration (from the Latin migratio - relocation) is understood as any territorial movement of people.

In a narrow sense, migration is the movement of people across the borders of certain territories with a change of place of residence forever or for a more or less long time. Persons taking part in the migration movement of the population are called migrants.

A change of place of residence within the same city is not considered as population migration.

When analyzing population migration, it is classified according to a number of criteria:

1. Depending on the nature of border crossing:

1) Internal - within one country between administrative or economic-geographical regions, settlements (migration from city to city, from village to village, from city to village, from village to city).

2) External – associated with crossing the state border. External migration includes emigration and immigration.

Emigration (from Latin emigro - moving out, moving), relocation (voluntary or forced, spontaneous or organized) to another country for permanent or temporary (long-term) residence, in most cases with a change of citizenship.

Immigration (from Latin immigro - moving in), entry (moving in) into the country for permanent or temporary (usually long-term) residence of citizens of another country, mostly with the acquisition of new citizenship.

External migration can also be divided into intracontinental and intercontinental.

2. Depending on temporary signs:

1) Constant.

2) Temporary.

3) Seasonal - temporary, annual movements of people (for example, summer migration to resort areas).

4) Pendulum - regular movements of the population from one locality to another to work or study and back.

3. Classification according to forms of implementation:

1) Organized.

2) Spontaneous.

4. Depending on the nature of the reasons for migration:

1) Political.

2) Economic.

3) Social.

5. Depending on the measures taken by the state

1) Voluntary.

2) Forced (forced) – movement of people that occurs for reasons beyond their control.

Labor migration has the greatest impact on the development of society. It covers the working age population and is sometimes called labor migration.

Chapter II. Number and natural population growth of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory for the period 2008-2012

2.1. Planning stage of research

Work on our research began in September 2012.

We decided on the research topic, object, subject, purpose and objectives, selected research methods, and drew up a plan for our work:

2.2. Practical stage of research

This stage of the study implies aanalysis of documentation stored in the Talazhansky village council and generalization of the received material.

The administration of each locality has household and household books, which record all residents registered and registered in the territory of this locality. Household and household books are maintained by administration employees, making annual changes, if any. These books contain information about the number of people living in each house or apartment; they record the person’s date of birth, his occupation and place of work, and the date of death. From the books you can learn about each family’s personal subsidiary plot or household plot and much more.

To find out about changes in population between 2008 and 2012, we turned to the Talazhansky Village Council, to which our village belongs. We were given the opportunity to study the house book of the village of Talazhanka. Our village is not large, so I know many of my fellow villagers; while working with the house-to-house register, I was surprised to learn that in many houses several people are registered, but I know that they definitely do not live in the village.

From the books we studied in the village council, we can glean a lot of interesting information. For example, about the economically active population - less than half are people of working age, most of the male population are working citizens. From 2008 to 2012 men mainly work on a rotational basis outside the village. There are students, but not many.

There are a lot of people older than working age, that is, pensioners. The majority of the working-age female population does not work. This is due to the fact that there are no jobs. Some of them are on maternity leave and receive benefits. Others are registered with the employment center.

Figure 1. Population of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory for the period 2008-2012

Analyzing this diagram, I would like to note that in 2011 in our village there was a decline in the population to 324 people, by 2012 the situation changed, the population increased and became 346 people, which is 22 people more than in 2011. This jump occurred due to natural and migration growth, i.e., people who came to our village for permanent residence: 2 people were born and 20 people moved.

If we analyze the last 5 years, then from 2008 to 2012 the population of the village increased by 16 people and in 2012 the maximum population of the village in 5 years was observed, which can be seen in Figure 1.

Back in the village council, we were presented with the document “The number of permanent population of the village” for the period 2008-2012, which is included in the household ledger.

Figure 2. Fertility, mortality, natural population growth in the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory for the period 2008-2012

Analyzing this graph, we made the following conclusions:

1. The birth rate of the population (this is the blue line in Figure 2) from 2008 to 2012 was 20 people, the maximum peak occurred in 2012, over the past 2 years the birth rate of the population has been declining and is 2 people per year.
2. The mortality rate of the population (this is the pink line in Figure 2) from 2008 to 2012 was 24 people, the maximum peak occurred in 2011 and amounted to 9 people, and the lowest number of deaths was recorded in 2012 - only 1 person.
3. We calculated natural growth using the formula:

EP=R-S

NP – natural population growth

P – birth rate of the population

C – population mortality

Natural population growth (this is the yellow line in Figure 2) from 2008 to 2012 is negative (20-24), the number of deaths was 4 more than the number of births. The maximum natural increase occurred in 2009 and amounted to 2 people, in 2011 the natural increase was negative (-7), and in 2012 it was 1 person.

2.3. The final (analytical) stage of the study

We conducted a survey among schoolchildren (Appendix 1). From the analysis of the questionnaires the following can be seen:

1 question How many children would you like to have in your family?

Question 2 Prioritize your life activities

In 1st place - Family and children - 8 students, increase in well-being - 13 students, career - 9 students.

At the final stage, we summarized and systematized the collected material and drew conclusions on the research topic.

Having analyzed the overall work we have done at the practical stage, we noticed that in general in the village of Talazhanka, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory, over the period of time under study, the total population has increased by 16 people.

But if you trace the dynamics of fertility and mortality for the same period, it is not difficult to notice that mortality exceeds the birth rate by 4 people.

Consequently, the population growth in the village of Talazhanka occurs mainly only due to population migration (mechanical population growth).

Based on the tasks set at stage 1 of the study, we can draw the following conclusions:

1. We studied the theoretical foundations on the research topic, the formula for calculating natural population growth (EP=R-S).
2. We analyzed the house ledger kept in the Talazhan village council.
3. We analyzed the birth and death rates and the population of the village. Talazhanki.
4. We compared the natural population growth with. Talazhanki of the Kazachinsky district of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for 2008-2012.

Conclusion

In the course of our research, graphs were compiled “Population of the village of Talazhanki by year” and “Fertility, mortality and natural population growth of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory.”

As a result of the research, it was found that the population of the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory, is constantly declining; from the analysis of questionnaires it is clear that the younger generation plans to have a small family in the future.

Between 2008 and 2012 the population increased by 16 people. Natural population growth is currently at a negative level (-4).

The demographic situation in the village of Talazhanka, as in our entire country, is complex. Migration growth is higher than natural.

Thus, the demographic situation in the village is determined by the following: the population continues to decline; The birth rate continues to decline; mortality is rising. This is explained by the destroyed infrastructure of the village and the lack of jobs in the village. People leave for permanent residence in the city. Young people, having left for study, do not return, because... housing is not being built in the village, there is no job that would satisfy them from a financial point of view.

We tried to predict the population of our village for the next 5 years. We calculated that on average for 5 years from 2008 to 2012, 4 people were born per year and 5 people died, therefore we calculated the EP using the formula R-C, 4-5, we got -1.

Figure 3.

As for the population, therefore, it will decrease every year, according to our forecasts, by 1 person annually. Naturally, a slight error is possible, since our lives are very changeable.

Figure 4.

The government of the Russian Federation, seriously concerned about the current demographic situation in the country, has developed a system of measures to improve it. To solve this complex problem, it is necessary to improve the standard of living, create new jobs in rural areas that are attractive to young people, and introduce privileges for large families. Our generation looks to the future with hope and is confident that the residents will be able to revive their village. And we, the younger generation, will make our contribution to the development of our small homeland.

My research work is not finished yet, I want to study the gender and age composition of the population of our village, the educational level and social status of our residents.

It seems to me that the district administration and social services should be interested in my research, and based on the results I obtained, they should build social policy in our region.

References:

1. Kravchenko A.I., Pevtsova E.A. “Social studies, 6th grade.”
2. House-to-house book on the village of Talazhanki, Kazachinsky district, Krasnoyarsk Territory.
3. Borisov V.A. Demography, M., 1999;
4. Erokhina O.V.: “Migration: free and forced, socio-economic aspects, the specifics of the migration problem for Russia, the main features of modern labor migration and “brain drain”” // Internet conference on the portal http://www.auditorium .ru
5. Population of Russia//Annual demographic report. M., 1999
6. http://demoscope.ru – Magazine "Demoscope-Weekly", electronic version;
7. http://memorial.krsk.ru/Work/konkurs/13/Sopelnikov/0.htm
8. http://territory.newslab.ru/territory/663
9. http://www.capital.ru
10. http://www.gks.ru; ___place

    B) family and children

    Place

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    year

    people

    CHN

    EP

    people

    year

    2012

    2011

    2010

    2009

    2008