Future predictions of futurists. A futurologist is a predictor of the future

Futurology(from lat. Futurum- the future and the Greek. Λόγος - doctrine) - forecasting the future, including by extrapolating existing technological, economic or social trends or trying to predict future trends.

THE FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS is a futurological long-term forecast of the development of intelligent life. So far, we can only consider the example of one civilization known to us - our own. But what will happen to us all in 100, 1000 or in a million years? What do we know about the future of the super-developed civilization? Certainly - nothing! In principle, we cannot know what will be interesting and what tasks the people of the distant future will set themselves. We should take this into account before we recall all the existing futurological forecasts, otherwise we risk becoming like those who wrote ridiculous forecasts about life in the twentieth century just a hundred or two hundred years ago, while attributing to us, today, all our own character traits and habits ... In turn, the forecasts of our futurologists sin in the same way. To be precise, our scientists first thought about the problems of the ultra-distant future of mankind only after they began a serious search for traces of other civilizations within the framework of the international SETI program. It was then that the question was posed: what happens to a civilization when it becomes "adult" by cosmic standards? And although we did not have the slightest idea of ​​what kind of civilizations were inhabited (and whether they were in general) other stellar systems, scientists unwittingly equated them with our own civilization of the "model of the third millennium." And so it happened that the questions "What are they?", "What will we be?" and "What would we like to be?" our official science gives almost the same answers. What can you do - there is not enough factual material for generalizations, and apart from UFOs, then Humanity is the only one known to us of all civilizations. Let's ask the question differently: How would we like to see ourselves in the third millennium? From science fiction films and stories, it turns out that our descendants, as settlers of the Wild West, are simply obliged to pour into the vast expanses of the Universe. Of course, people should go out into the intergalactic spaces, but not as nomadic tribes or locust-like herds of barbarians. Modern humanist scientists unanimously assert that we will carry only peace and goodness into space. But who knows, perhaps many star systems by that time will already be inhabited by representatives of other civilizations? What if they don't like our desire for expansion (see "Stellar Expansion")? Of course, in science fiction stories, "good" earthlings always defeat "non-humanoid aliens". But are we sure that aliens will not turn out to be an older and more militarily powerful civilization? And won't we be wrong in such conflicts? Where to look for arbitrators? Futurologists modestly bypass this question, as if taking it for granted that everywhere they will wait for us only with outstretched hands (paws, claws, limbs). Although the logic of all historical events on our planet seems to say the opposite. Will we have to participate in world star wars and great crusades to free the Milky Way? Humanists and pacifists in this case have every chance to find confirmation of their ideals. Indeed, the same logic dictates that if there were at least several civilizations older than ours in the Universe (and the theory of probability claims this), then their representatives would have been on Earth many times (fast interstellar flights after some time and for we will cease to be a problem). But if different civilizations visit Earth (of course - in UFOs?), Then where is the battle for the planet and the war for the spheres of influence ?! If it is true that humanism prevails in space, then we will have to be humane too. In any case, having entered the vastness of the Universe (probably not the first), we will simply have to reckon with the old traditions of non-interference. In any case, for the first time, until our strength grows stronger ... Well, when our weight in the intergalactic arena increases, we can hope that our bloody habits and ancient instincts, as well as the scenarios of the Hollywood "Star Wars", will be forgotten by that time. .. Let's try to list all possible options for the development of Mankind starting from the foreseeable future (ie, from the beginning of the XXI century), considering that we have already begun our expansion into the Universe: , or another catastrophe, associated, for example, with the radiation of a supernova or an asteroid fall, is unlikely, because after the colonization of other planets (there is hope that we will have time to carry it out), civilization automatically insures itself against complete extinction. True, the silence of space in the radio range and the suspicion that all civilizations (and we too!) Do not live up to "maturity" forced some astronomers to accept a new hypothesis: According to calculations, the probability that civilization, as a result of its technogenic development, will enter a dead end, which is destructive for itself, is approximately 10%. During the Cold War, a nuclear war was considered the most likely such a dead end, followed by ecology, overpopulation, the emergence of man-made viruses, and chemical and radiation disasters. In the future, regional conflicts and even seemingly harmless physical experiments may become dangerous for the entire civilization ... there are simply no free planets left. We will have to be content with only our native Earth and the role of a stellar backwater, naturally, the risk of self-destruction in this case will increase many times, and colonies on the Moon and in outer space can potentially not provide the proper revival of the human race in the event of a global catastrophe on Earth. Considering that Humanity will be able to settle and spread in the future not only in the space of our 3-dimensional world, but also in other dimensions of Space-Time, it can be considered simply unworthy of mentioning the option when we have absolutely nowhere to go in the endless expanses of Universes and Times. The question must be posed as follows: do we have enough desire and means to master what the older civilizations neglected? 4. Scenario of ALIENATION: if the entire Universe has long been divided into spheres of influence between the old supercivilizations, then we risk being left alone with our desires and ambitions. Astneighbors do not need us any more than, say, a clan of supermillionaires - a poor ill-mannered relative, naively waiting for reciprocal loud declarations of love and sympathy. But these are also "flowers". It will be worse if the "clan" unexpectedly still likes in a poor relative precisely the bad manners and inherent belligerence ... 5. The role of the "FOOT IN ANOTHER'S GAME" is disgusting if we do not know the true goals of this game. I don't really want to be in the role of the Papuans of Oceania, who, during World War II, having changed their spear and bow to an automatic rifle, with great pleasure went to fight both in the Japanese army and in the US army, seeing absolutely no difference for themselves. Perhaps, to some extent, all young civilizations pass through the role of "Papuans-mercenaries", and this development scenario can be considered as the most probable, especially since ... if you believe the numerous stories of contactees, then UFO pilots are already using us with might and main. for their unknown purposes. Of course, we would also like to play an important role in the interstellar arena, but in fact, all of the above and below listed options for the development of Mankind could be reduced to just one question: how independent will we be in our choice of policy in the future? At the same time, not implying that independence is preferable. In practice, it always turns out the other way around: “street kids” either resign themselves to social rules and become respected citizens, or become social outcasts with all the ensuing consequences. 6. The "STAR WARRIORS" option with an independently pursued mature military policy is possible in all scenarios. The principles of humanity say that bloody politics should be abandoned, but experience suggests that you need to be ready for aggression at any moment. The same experience, unfortunately, tells us that very often, in the absence of external enemies, internal enemies are quickly found. No one will guarantee that without finding enemies in other galaxies, independent colonies will not start enmity among themselves. It follows that we always need to be ready for the news that we are the only civilization ... 7. The LONELINESS scenario is highly unlikely. According to Kardashev's estimates, only zero percent is estimated the chance that there is no one else in the incredibly large Universe except us. From the fact that this illogical case is very common in science fiction, it can be concluded that subconsciously people strive for leadership even at the interstellar level. True, the option is not excluded that, without competition in space, the United Mankind will quickly grow cold to the search for new endless colonies and then ... 8. The "STALL" option is possible in all scenarios. An example of the eternal existence of civilizations in a state of complete indifference to everything is taken seriously by many astronomers as an explanation for the radio silence of the cosmos, but practice shows that stagnation in a potentially healthy society does not drag on for a long time, is it worth then seriously considering this episode? 9. The "GREAT RING" scenario is, perhaps, the most optimistic of all conceivable options, in which tens and hundreds of different civilizations, mature and barely out on interstellar routes, begin to "make friends with families." The humane and tolerant attitude towards each other of representatives of different galaxies is described in many fantastic works, so you should not go into too much detail, especially since this option is also quite satisfying for scientists working on the SETI program. Even the probabilities of the entry of some hypothetical civilization, similar to ours, into an intragalactic union (about 10%), into an intergalactic union (20%) and even into a union of civilizations, occupying a noticeable part (about 1 - 10 billion light years) of the size the visible part of the Metagalaxy (already more than 60%)! It should be noted that in the case of the existence of other civilizations, the expansion of any of them with the help of global panspermia could have the most catastrophic consequences for the already inhabited planets. 10. The "HIERARCHICAL LADDER" scenario is essentially just a variant of the previous scenario, but an even more probable variant (again, relying on our logic!). Different civilizations, in principle, should be different in their development. But how do you classify them? Usually, when referring to the degree of development of a society, they refer to the SETI classification, in which hypothetical civilizations are divided according to the degree of power availability: civilizations can in total consume as much electricity as light falls on the surface of their home planet; a more advanced civilization spends almost all the energy of its native star for its needs; and later - all the energy of the native galaxy. The full use of the energy falling on the planet was supposed to be achieved with the help of orbital solar batteries and energy converters, and the full use of the entire star - with the help of a solid sphere built around the star (the author of this idea is F. Dyson) or shells of several astronomical units in size. It is not yet clear from a technical point of view how to trap and use all the light emanating from the galaxy, and whether it is possible from a legal point of view to intercept this energy if, in addition to our civilization, there is someone else in the galaxy ... Although in scientific works the topic of hierarchies in space it is not found anywhere in its pure form, nevertheless, many astronomers wrote about it in one way or another between the lines. Indeed, no one particularly objects to the fact that after the beginning of the era of starfaring and contact with neighbors, our civilization is waiting for something like a qualitative leap in development, but who can guarantee that this leap will be the last in our history !? Let us recall that K. Tsiolkovsky and other scientists wrote that in billions of years (or earlier?) People will turn into incorporeal ethereal beings; modern observations of some types of UFOs and research conducted by academician V. Kaznacheyev both directly and indirectly confirm the existence of such a field form of life. It may happen that after millions of years, as a result of natural (or unnatural) evolution, a person will lose not only his usual appearance, but also the previous properties of the physical organism. Even if people are already accustomed to that time with the reality of frequent space flights and flights in Time, all the same, after this, a new break in habits and characters, a change in priorities, goals, space friends, etc., is inevitable. The transition to each new qualitative level for humanity will mean, first of all, a kind of new discovery of the Universe. How many times will there be qualitative leaps in the development of Mankind, and what a man of the field and post-field forms of life will be like at least approximately - it is now even impossible to even imagine this! (Another option - to imagine - you have to look again at some types of UFOs). Billions of years will pass, in the ideal case, post-field Humanity will completely master Space-Time, and if for some reason the triumphal procession of people is not interrupted, then someday our descendants will reach such heights that in our minds they will simply become Gods .. ...

Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has already changed our world by discovering how computers can read printed words, recognize human speech, and synthesize music that is no different from musicians who play real violins and cellos. But these are small things compared to what he sees in the future - when machines can think like people and even better.

We will live in floating cities

Back in 2007, a report from the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development showed that by 2070, sea level rise due to climate change could have devastating impacts on coastal cities around the world. 150 million people could be at risk and flee flooded cities. We could have prevented this catastrophic scenario by lowering greenhouse gas emissions, but time is short and no one wants to move. This means that people will have no choice but to build tall dams or move.

There is also another option. In 2008, Belgian architect Vincent Callebo proposed an alternative. What if, instead of fleeing sea level rise, you just build new cities that float? In 2008, Kallebo unveiled the design of the Lilypad, a 50,000-person floating city with a fully self-sustaining system, water gardens, seawater desalination plants and solar, wind and water power generation.

What do you think will definitely become a reality from this within the specified time frame, and what will not?

There is such a rare profession - a futurologist. This is a specialist who is able to predict the future. The people believe that this is possible only with the help of clairvoyance or fortune-telling cards. A futurologist is not a palmist or any other expert adventurer. The specialty is quite serious, and the predictions of such an analyst are trustworthy. Let's figure out who is called a futurist, what these people are doing, why their words are worthy of attention.

Futurology is a science

There are several challenges facing modern scientists. They need to comprehensively study the phenomenon and describe its development over time. Futurology is a science that predicts social development based on causal relationships and established laws. Agree, this is a prediction of the future. The subject of the study of futurology is very distant horizons. The specialist studies history, delves into the traditions of peoples and tries to understand where the social process is heading. In fact, a futurologist is an analyst who needs to link the achievements of several related branches of science. He must have a broad outlook, a serious knowledge base. It would seem that the process of development of society is influenced by such trifles as habits formed in childhood, common ways of interaction between individuals, images imposed by the media, and the like. That is, a futurologist is a specialist, so to speak, of a broad profile with encyclopedic knowledge.

Subject of study

The question of where humanity is heading has occupied philosophers at all times. Modern experts have not discovered anything new here. But they have perfected the method of studying the future. Do not wonder. Having understood who a futurist is, you yourself will see that this analyst is not really engaged in predictions. It is better to say right away that an analysis of the latent changes, their results and the likelihood of an impact on the processes is being carried out. The name of this science comes from the English word futurum (future in translation). It is based on a scrupulous study of social trends affecting the state of countries and peoples. In order to influence events, it is necessary to understand them, to know the laws of behavior of people and collectives. This is what futurology does. It is based on the development of mathematicians and sociologists, takes into account the achievements of economists, physicists, biologists and other industries. All this is only in order to understand how the situation will develop in one particular country and what it will give to humanity as a whole.

About the "butterfly effect"

It is impossible to understand who a futurist is, if you do not explain some of the nuances. The fact is that direct, previously used analytics is now considered outdated. as they say, it stopped working in the last century. The processes in society, of course, are influenced by simple and well-known laws, but not fully. And, by the way, they are only partly interested in futurologists. They pay more attention to "sleeping" or unmanifest factors. These are some processes or phenomena that are just maturing, not yet influencing events. They call them "slumbering gnomes." These factors can spontaneously or under the influence of certain forces be activated at any moment and affect all of humanity. There is a description of how the flapping of the wings of a butterfly in America, for example, leads to a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. This is, of course, just a model. But it perfectly characterizes how the predictions of futurists are formed. It is necessary to take into account a lot of nuances unknown to the general public, trace their interconnections and understand what the interaction processes will lead to.

Profession futurologist

Before we consider the fruits of this branch of knowledge, it is necessary to describe the people involved in forecasting and shaping the future. Who does this in real life? There are quite a few futuristic practitioners in the West. We will discuss some of them below. But not every scientist with a sufficient background will undertake such a difficult task. The specialist must have creative thinking, excellent imagination, the ability to form unusual ideas on the verge of the possible. In addition, they have to be separated from outright fiction. Often, futurists, by the way, draw their brilliant projects from literature. They make full use of the fruits of human genius, both past and present. The latter, in order to advance in this profession, it is necessary to be able to rise above the ordinary, to go beyond the generally accepted rules. And this, believe me, is more difficult than mastering science.

How the forecast is formed

Let's give a diagram of the work of a futurologist. Let's say right away that it will be primitive, but it will give an understanding of the activities of such a specialist. Nowadays there is a lot of talk about the Third World War. Naturally, the topic did not pass by the attention of specialists. How do you know what exactly might happen? To do this, you need to collect information about:

• likely participants;
• current potential;
• trends in new developments;
• traditions of peoples and political systems;
• estimated resources;
• the personalities of the leaders of the opponents.

The above is a common base used by the military. The futurologist also takes into account an unknown factor. For our topic, this can be, for example, the unexpected death of the leader of a country, for the influence on which probable opponents are fighting. Or an uprising in any backward state where an important resource is located (a plant, a mining enterprise). Factors that are less obvious and visible to the average person in the media are also taken into account. Having collected all the possible, the specialist begins to analyze them, playing the situation. The conclusions, of course, will be multiple, limited by the theory of probability.

Ian Pearson

The most famous futurists regularly shock the public with their ideas. Many of them, by the way, use politics to attract the electorate. So, the Englishman Ian Pearson predicted at the beginning of the century that people will be able to experience the pleasures of love in the virtual space. Then the idea seemed incredible, now it no longer shocks anyone. He is also known for the forecast that a person will be able to transfer consciousness to a computer after a certain time. By the way, programmers are seriously working in this direction, as the media assure.

Predictions about solving the food problem

Many scientists are working on this serious issue. The population of the planets grows in and the resources decrease in multiples. Futurologists have suggested paying attention to the world's oceans, which have not yet been properly explored. Water, inhabited by rich flora and fauna, occupies most of the planet, and people do not really use it. Ian Pearson predicts that science will develop methods and appropriate technologies that will enable food to be obtained from the ocean. This means not only fishing, but also the processing of many types of algae, probably their industrial cultivation.

About the Third World War

The imagination of people is excited by the predictions of futurologists. It is interesting to know how our descendants will live, unless, of course, we all burn in a nuclear fire. Perhaps the most popular ideas of futurists relate to the likelihood of the Third World War. They cannot say with certainty whether it will happen or not. It depends on the politicians and the military. But what it can be, futurologists talk a lot and with pleasure. In their opinion, human participation in the upcoming fights will be minimal. The fighters will control the technical devices fighting among themselves. The military will be safe, which cannot be said about the civilians. The flame of nuclear fires will fall exactly on the heads of the ordinary population, and will completely turn their world upside down. To reassure the reader, even futurists consider the likelihood of a major war to be minimal.

Just a few names

It is not possible to describe all the ideas and studies of futurologists in a short article. Part of their work is already being exploited with might and main by politicians in the ongoing information war. We will only name a few names so that the reader has an idea of ​​the personalities who created our present from the distant and not so past. The following futurists are considered the most famous in the expert community: Huntington, Toffler, Fukuyama. You've probably heard these names too. The activities of these people fascinate not so much with the content of forecasts, as with the genius of approaches to the analysis of events. They, of course, need to be read far from retelling. Have you yourself tried to make a probabilistic forecast for the distant or near future? Share in the comments, we will discuss it together.

Another year has passed, and we have become one step closer to dreams of tomorrow. Here are the most futuristic developments of 2016. This year we have seen the explosive growth of artificial intelligence in all areas, the green light for genetic research, the development of virtual reality and much more. Go.

Artificial intelligence finally defeated the world champion in go

In a tournament that challenged the historical significance of Deep Blue's victory over Grandmaster Garry Kasparov in a chess match in 1996, Google's AlphaGo won four of five games played against World Go Champion Lee Sedol. Before the tournament, some experts naively assumed that the machine would have no chance against a human in a game known for its complexity and intricacy.

After his loss, Sedol coyly admitted, "After my experience with AlphaGo, I had a little doubt about the classical beliefs, so I need to do more research." Sedol's defeat was a loud reminder that machines are rapidly catching up with humans in intelligence and that no human is immune from the power of AI.

Self-driving Uber cars become a reality

We knew self-driving taxis were inevitable, but when Uber deployed a fleet of autonomous vehicles in October, it came as a shock - and heralded a new era in transportation. Self-driving cars are still far from perfect and are generally prohibited in some countries, but it won't be long before they will be everywhere.

Welcomed the world's first child with three genetic parents

A controversial technique known as mitochondrial nuclear transfer was used to make a boy using genetic material from three different parents. This therapy does not allow the transmission of problematic features from mother to child - in this case, there was a debilitating Lee syndrome, leading to death and affecting the development of the nervous system. This method has not yet received approval in the United States, so Dr. John Zhang of the New Hope Fertility Center performed the procedure in Mexico, where there are no such restrictions.

The girl won the right to cryogenic freezing

A 14-year-old girl with terminal brain cancer achieved her dying wish when a British court granted her request to be frozen in a cryonics factory in the United States. The teenager's father, deprived of parental rights, initially opposed her wishes, but the court decided that the mother would better dispose of the girl's wishes in her best interests.

The teen has already died and is now frozen at the Cryonics Institute in Michigan. This precedent showed that the desire to be stored in a giant vat of liquid nitrogen cannot be challenged even by parents.

Scientists have created an artificial life form with just 473 genes

Scientists from the Institute of Synthetic Genomics and the J. Craig Institute have designed and created a "minimal" synthetic bacterial genome that is smaller than any other in nature.

The goal of the experiment was to create a basic genome that scientists could use to study life, and from it add new sets of genes. Syn3.0 is a bacterium with 473 genes that can be used to create almost any type of cell with predefined properties. This will allow scientists to create artificial life forms that can be used to produce new drugs, biochemistry, biofuels, and food.

Geneticists have used CRISPR to augment human potential

In 2015, a group of Chinese scientists were the first to use the CRISPR gene editing tool to modify the human embryo by removing the defective gene responsible for the fatal blood disease (after the experiment, the emibryos were destroyed). In April of this year, a second group of Chinese researchers used CRISPR for something more interesting: It gave human embryos improved biological capabilities.

In particular, the researchers introduced a beneficial mutation that changes the gene of immune cells and prevents HIV from entering the cells of the human immune system (as in the 2015 experiment, the embryos were later destroyed). A small fraction of the human population has this built-in immunity, but experiment has shown that CRISPR can be used to make it available to the general public.

And a research team from Sichuan University in China delivered modified immune system cells to a patient suffering from aggressive lung cancer. Scientists have used CRISPR-Cas9 to make cells more resistant to the presence of cancer, marking the first use of a powerful gene editing tool to treat a living person.

Neural interfaces have made significant progress

It has been a big year for neural computer interfaces. A team of researchers led by Duke Health's Miguel Nicolelis has developed a wireless brain-computer interface that allows monkeys to control the movements of a robotic wheelchair using only the power of thought, while a team from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne implanted a neural device to restore movement in paralyzed primates.

Scientists from the Netherlands successfully tested a brain implant that allowed a patient with Lou Gehrig's disease in late stage to speak messages at a speed of two characters per minute, and in a similar experiment, monkeys with a neurocomputer interface were able to type 12 words per minute using the power of thought. Scientists from Johns Hopkins University demonstrated a system that allowed a person to move individual fingers of a prosthesis with the power of thought. And a group at the Battell Memorial Institute developed a brain implant that allowed a paralyzed person to play Guitar Hero with their hands, making them the first person to restore body function using brain signals.

Convincing virtual reality has finally hit the market

After a sickening level of anticipation and deception, fully immersive virtual reality headsets are finally available to consumers, albeit at a high price tag. Products like the Oculur Rift and HTC Vive have met even the highest expectations. These devices are truly amazing and provide just as much fun as people want.

Scientists have completed a plan to create a synthetic human genome from scratch

Last May, about a hundred scientists, lawyers and entrepreneurs held a secret meeting to discuss the possibility of creating a synthetic human genome. Journalists were not invited, and visitors were told to keep their mouths shut. A month later, Harvard biologist George Church said it was overkill, and the project itself - the Human Genome Project-write, a project to write the human genome - is an attempt to build and deploy a completely artificial genome in human cells for a decade.

The researchers hope to develop powerful new technologies that will allow them to connect long strands of artificial human DNA, and then display those synthetic cells in a petri dish - and that's it. At least that's what they say. And it would seem that there is nothing more to discuss, but research in this area will one day lead to the creation of artificial organisms and even designer babies.

Alternative energy sources are growing faster than anyone else

In October, a report from the International Energy Agency showed that renewable energy capacity growth is at an all-time high, reaching 153 GW (roughly all of Canada's energy production). Much of this growth is due to new offshore wind and solar projects (about half a million solar panels were installed daily around the world last year).

The IEA says that for the first time, "renewables account for more than half of the net annual power additions and have caught up with coal in terms of the world's total installed capacity." Technically speaking, we hit this milestone in 2015, but didn't realize it until October 2016.

"Lost" algorithm collapses the British pound

On October 7, the British pound suffered from a "sudden glitch", falling 6% against the dollar in six minutes. Experts point to high-frequency stock trading as the culprit - and perhaps one algorithm that reacted to comments from French President François Hollande, who called for tougher Brexit negotiations. This case points to our dependence and the growing power of bots and algorithms, which are becoming increasingly difficult to control.

By using a chemical compound to turn a rabbit's brain into a glassy state and then cool it down to liquid nitrogen temperature, scientists at 21CM have shown that near-perfect long-term structural preservation of intact mammalian brains can be achieved.

The new method will allow scientists to study the brain in unprecedented detail, and can also be applied to cryonics, the practice of keeping a person cold in the hope that one day they will come back to life. This method essentially turns the brain into an inert piece of plastic, destroying all biological components in the process.

We have taken a big step towards nuclear fusion

In February, German scientists used an experimental nuclear fusion device to produce hydrogen plasma. During the experiment, a 2-megawatt pulse of microwave energy detonated a cloud of hydrogen gas, turning it into an extremely low density hydrogen plasma.

It lasted only a fraction of a second, but reached a temperature of 80 million degrees, similar to that of the sun. It will be some time before we get to safe, stable and contained nuclear fusion, but this experiment was an important step in that direction.

In Kiev, a well-known popularizer of science, Professor Michio Kaku from the United States gave a lecture on the topic "Physics of the Future", in which he described his own vision of how the world will develop over the next hundred years. Michio became famous for his work on the Discovery.Science TV channel, is the author of many books on the topic of futurology.

The value of his predictions lies in the fact that Mr. Kaku is a physicist. That is, not only describes the technologies of the future, but also talks about the ways to achieve them. Each forecast is based on existing scientific advances, which it extrapolates for years to come.

Interestingly, Michio Kaku's predictions made several years ago have already come true. Augmented reality glasses, driverless cars, smart homes and objects, flexible paper, internet-connected clothing - all of this is either already available or will become so in the coming years. Although the lecture in the crowded hall of the Kiev-Mohyla Academy lasted more than two hours, no one in the audience even yawned or went out for a smoke break.

A scientist with burning eyes talked about things that seem incredible today. Surely, at the beginning of the twentieth century, stories about supersonic aircraft, mobile communications, the Internet and other things familiar to us would sound no less amazing. Vesti has chosen the futurist's most impressive predictions.

FORECAST FOR 2030 - 2070

Quantum revolution

The D-Wave quantum computer is 3600 times more powerful than a regular personal computer. Photo by D-Wave

The computer revolution awaits us in the coming years. Moore's Law - doubling the power of computers every two years - will become irrelevant in a few years. The fact is that today transistors have already been brought to a size of 14 nanometers. The maximum possible theoretical limit is 10 nanometers (after which electrons will begin to leak through a layer several atoms thick) - such chips will appear around 2020. And then there will either be a catastrophe for the entire industry (and the world economy), or technologies will step further - and the era of quantum computers will begin (its performance is thousands of times higher than ordinary PCs), which will speed up computations many times over. The second scenario is more likely, because the first models of such computers are already on sale.

Avalanche of information

Substrate with ultra-small 22 nanometer chips. Intel Photo

An even more important event is the information explosion, the beginning of which we already feel. Today we are just entering the era of Big Data (accumulation and processing of an impressive amount of information). If today we are talking about exabytes of information (a million times more than a terabyte), then by 2016 we will be operating with zettabytes of data (a thousand times more than an exabyte). In recent years, humanity has accumulated more knowledge than in its entire history. And the speed of knowledge exchange has grown thousands of times and continues to grow. It is this factor that gives grounds to say that fundamental discoveries in the field of science and technology will occur in the coming decades. In terms of the degree of influence, this can be compared with the era of the great geographical discoveries.

Mixing realities

Such clues are already visible in augmented reality glasses. EON Photos

Processors will become so cheap and microscopic that they will be embedded in all household items (they will become "smart"). The world itself will be covered with a global information web, with which we will interact with the help of gadgets. It will be a strange world - a mixture of real and virtual reality. Special contact lenses will allow you to see in front of you not only the real world, but also virtual images superimposed on it. Phone, clock, MP3 player, navigator will become just icons displayed on the lens. All this will dramatically change a person's understanding of the workplace, trade, tourism, entertainment. With the help of virtual images, it will be possible to change the picture of the world in the literal sense of the word - the colors of objects, the interior and even the appearance of the street.

FORECAST FOR 2070-2100 YEARS

Medicine of the future: steps towards immortality

The British created a human biomodel in May. Photo newscom.md

Already today, high technologies are used in medicine, for example, camera capsules have been invented, which must be swallowed, and they will record everything that happens in the body. In the future, there will be programmed chemical "bombs" that will target tumors without poisoning nearby healthy tissues. A new approach to treatment is to fight diseases before they even appear. Each bathroom will have more sensors than a modern hospital, and they will be able to easily detect cancer cells several years before a tumor occurs (half of all cancers are associated with a p53 gene mutation that can be detected with diagnostic equipment). Further more. In the future, gene therapy may cure all or nearly all of the 5000 known genetic diseases. By the middle of the century, scientists will move from "simple" repairing genes to improving them. People will be designed in the image and likeness of famous athletes and action heroes, or they will begin to create new creatures with a set of ideal qualities - for example, fearless strongmen capable of developing breakneck speeds. Also, scientists will learn how to slow down the aging process using different methods: stem cell therapy, and growing "spare parts" for the human body, and gene therapy to "repair" aging genes. A person will be able to live up to 150 years and even longer. By 2100, perhaps scientists will learn how to reverse the aging process by activating the mechanisms of cell repair, and then the life expectancy of a person will increase several times. The next step is immortality. Overpopulation will not occur in this case - population growth will stop at around 9 billion people. Now families are planning no more than three children (more often two), and the richer the country, the later and less women give birth.

World of robots

Androids are still capable of only primitive work. Photo CEBIT-2012

By the middle of the century, our world will be full of robots, and we will not even notice them: they will be disguised as snakes, insects and spiders performing various tasks. These will be modular robots that can change shape depending on the task, and supercomputers will control them via wireless communication. But will there be android robots like the Terminator? This question is related to the development of artificial intelligence. So far, it has not been possible to teach computers to solve two key tasks that the human brain performs automatically, without any difficulty: pattern recognition and following common sense. A more likely scenario is that people will replace body parts with mechanical ones to increase physical performance.

Controlling the power of thought

The next step is telekinesis. The foundations of this technology have already been laid, but its improvement may take many more decades. The task has two parts. First, the brain must learn to control objects in the external world, and second, the computer must learn to guess (and fulfill) the wishes of the owner. There are no problems with the first part - with the help of tomographs, doctors have learned to track brain activity and understand the direction of a person's thoughts. There is an understanding of how the second part of the task will be implemented. These are sensors embedded in objects, with the help of which the computer will perceive information. Telekinesis (moving objects by the power of thought) is still a fantasy, but over time it will become commonplace. By 2100, every person will be able, upon entering a room, to give a mental command to a computer: move furniture, tidy up a table, repair something.

IS PERFECTLY FAR: SIX FEARS

The future described by the futurist looks beautiful. But won't new problems that threaten humanity appear with the development of technology? The authoritative scientific portal Edge asked this question to people who know about the future a little more than others: scientists, futurists and experts in the main branches of human activity. We have selected the most interesting opinions.

1. The Chinese will become supermen Jeffrey Miller, an evolutionary psychologist at NYU Stern Business School and the University of New Mexico, draws attention to the fact that for more than thirty years China has been engaged in eugenics (the doctrine of human selection. - Author). And at the same time it continues to grow as a superpower. “I think this poses a threat to Western civilization,” the expert writes. Today, there is a research center in the city of Shenzhen, where more than 4,000 scientists are working to create the human of the future. “It is too early to be wary of this. But it is worth considering taking part in this process. And how we can help each other, ”Miller said.

2. The Internet Will Become a Control Tool Bruce Schneier, a computer security expert, believes that there is a risk of misuse of information technology by corporations and world governments: “They may try to remake the Web for themselves, fixing the 'flaws' that prevent widespread surveillance, censorship and money-squeezing at every turn. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the positive and negative sides of the Internet are closely intertwined. Fighting hackers, child pornography and other vices is a good reason to tighten the screws. " According to the expert, this is a question that needs to be addressed today.

3. Big Data will create information chaos Victoria Stodden, professor of statistics, draws attention to the fact that humanity has a risk of getting confused in information: “It is generally accepted that numbers do not lie and it is useless to argue with them. The problem is that it is not. The numbers can lie. Errors can be accidentally or deliberately introduced at any stage, but no one is looking for them, because critical attitude to data has not yet become a custom outside the scientific community. The pursuit of fashion does not lead to good. And the fashion for data is no exception. The realization that the quantity of data is not as important as its quality is only beginning to emerge. Hopefully it's not too late. "

4. The Internet is about to crash George Dyson, a technology historian, believes that one day we will face a catastrophic internet crash. That being said, we have no fallback to bring up a primitive, low-bandwidth emergency network in the event that the main network we used to rely on becomes unavailable. As a result, humanity, which is too dependent on technology, will become virtually paralyzed. “We need a plan of action for this case and a primitive communication network with low bandwidth and long latency, which could be built on the basis of mobile phones and laptops,” the expert believes.

5. Synthetic life threatens natural Biologist Seirian Sumner is concerned about experiments in creating new life forms. “Do we understand enough molecular rules to take the risk and release our synthetic creations into natural ecosystems? Even if everything works fine in the laboratory, and the developers of the new organism have foreseen protective mechanisms that prevent it from evolving, no one knows what will happen when a synthetic creature enters a real ecosystem, ”the expert notes. That is why genetically modified organisms need special control.

6. There will be no place for people in the world of cars Computer science expert David Dalrymple fears robots will take jobs away from humans. “Change will begin long before machines can handle any imaginable human job. Remember that the Chinese corporation Foxconn, which assembles equipment from Apple, HP, Nintendo, Google, Amazon, Sony and many other companies, is seriously considering replacing manual labor with industrial robots. Foxconn employs over a million people. If at least half of them are left without work, this is already five hundred thousand people who will become victims of that very painful transition to a new paradigm, ”he says.