Hypothetical minimum natural birth rate. See what "natural fertility" is in other dictionaries

Lecture plan
5.1. Fertility: definition, indicators; the balance of natural and regulated births in modern society.
5.2. Reproductive behavior: definition, reproductive strategies, main trends recorded in the 21st century.
5.3. The evolution of fertility: the essence of the concept, the direction of the evolution of fertility in the transition from an industrial society to an information one.

5.1. Fertility: definition, indicators. The balance of natural and regulated births in modern society

fertility- a mass statistical process of childbearing in the aggregate of people that make up a generation, or in the aggregate of generations - in the population.
Correlation between the terms "fertility" and "fertility" Fertility as a process, is made up of a mass of individual cases of birth, but is not reduced to them.
Fertility - biological ability to the conception and birth of living children (for a woman, a man, a married couple). It is determined by the internal (biological) parameters of the health of a woman, a man, a married couple, partners in a civil marriage.
Fertility is a social process, the realization of the ability to bear children. It is determined by external factors: social, cultural, historical, economic. It obeys the action of social forces and laws, unfolds within certain, historically specific boundaries, set by the action of biological, physiological factors.
fertility range. The theoretically possible range of fertility is very wide: from infertility to 35 births in singletons over the entire reproductive period.
Average species fertility a person is 15 - 16 births per woman during the reproductive period.
However real number of births per woman in the economically developed countries of the world today is 1.5. This is almost ten times, i.e. an order of magnitude less than the biological ability to bear children. The reasons for this difference (the difference between the biological ability to bear children and the realization of this ability in practice) lie in the conditions of social life and reflect the transition from natural models of childbearing to artificial (regulated). This transition is due to the historical and economic stage in the development of modern society and is an objective pattern.
reproductive period- the time interval from menarche, which in modern conditions occurs at 12-14 years, to menopause, which occurs at 45-50 years. Within the reproductive period, two time intervals are distinguished, which are important from the standpoint of social demography.
Protogenetic interval- this is the time between marriage (more precisely, the formation of a marriage union) and the birth of the first child. It is determined by biosocial factors: the moment of conception (before or after marriage) and fertility. Fertility is the frequency of pregnancy in a woman who is fertile in the first month of regular sexual intercourse, provided that contraceptives are not used. In modern women, fertility corresponds to a value of 0.2. This means that under the above conditions, pregnancy occurs in 20 out of 100 women.
Intergenetic interval is the average length of time between successive births. It depends not only and not so much on biological factors and fertility, but on socio-psychological factors, namely, the financial situation of the family, housing conditions, professional status, career prospects, the decision of the spouses regarding the number of desired children, etc. In some cases, the key importance acquires the opinion of others about the expediency of the birth of the next child, as well as the willingness of interested persons (grandparents, relatives, social workers) to support materially, financially and organizationally the birth and subsequent socialization of the second and third child in the family.
Early sexualmaturation, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), refers to the situation of the onset of menarche at 8 years of age and earlier.
It is believed that the average species fertility of a person does not exceed 15-16 births per woman for the entire reproductive period. In modern economically developed countries, about 10-15% of married couples are absolutely infertile (i.e., have zero chances of having a child) and the same number are relatively (i.e., have low fertility).
It should be emphasized that, according to age criteria, the biological ability to bear children and social readiness for birth and upbringing, i.e. socialization, children do not match completely. This pattern is valid for both the lower and upper limits of the reproductive period.
The lower limit of the reproductive period corresponds to the onset of puberty and the physiological ability to conceive. But this age does not correspond to the social maturity of the young organism. Puberty comes before the end of school education, precedes the acquisition of a profession that makes it possible to support oneself and one's offspring, comes before the marriageable age is reached, approved by moral standards, religious and ethnic traditions, permitted by law. The appearance of children in persons who are in the period between biological and social maturity is critical in terms of their subsequent successful socialization and, in the case of a mass phenomenon, aggravates the demographic burden falling on the able-bodied population of the territory.
The upper limit of the reproductive period, approaching the age of 50 for a woman, even taking into account the achievements of modern medical technologies, also seems to be problematic in terms of the subsequent socialization of newborn children. It is known that the age of 55 corresponds to the end of a woman's professional career and the acquisition of the right to retire by age. In addition, a number of professions are characterized by an earlier onset of retirement age (harmful industries, some creative specialties, length of service for medical and pedagogical workers, etc.). Even with the preservation of health and professional activity, it is more difficult for a woman in adulthood to ensure a sufficient level of income necessary for a decent maintenance of herself and her child, as well as for the child to receive the necessary upbringing and education. This thesis becomes more justified if we take into account the following circumstances. First, the complete socialization of children with their coming of age, receiving higher education and acquiring a competitive profession is a long process that lasts for 23-25 ​​years. Secondly, a woman who has given birth to a child in adulthood and is married to a man no younger than herself in age runs the risk of raising a child in an incomplete family, because the mortality rate for men is significantly different from that of women. Thus, according to 2001 data, the average life expectancy of men in the Russian Federation is 59.0 years, which is 13 years less than the average life expectancy of women and only slightly exceeds the upper limit of the reproductive period of the latter.
Consequently, the birth of "late" children, as well as "early" ones, does not contribute to the social stability of society, increases the demographic load and reduces the potential of the population to be competitive in the global labor market. Socio-demographic features of the reproductive period are schematically depicted in Figure 16.

Rice. 16. Critical periods for childbearing in terms of their subsequent socialization

Let's summarize the above. Fertility - is the potential for childbearing, and the birth rate - the embodiment of this possibility in a real society. The presence of freedom of choice and will, the fusion of biological, psychological and social motives of behavior, the conflict of personal and public interests, and much more determine the real readiness of the population to continue themselves in offspring. This willingness, along with the actual socio-economic and financial resources for the upbringing and socialization of the younger generation, underlies the reproductive behavior of the inhabitants of the planet, individual countries and territories.
Of the socially significant problems of fertility, which reduce the level of social stability, increase the demographic burden and reduce the competitiveness of future generations, there are several main ones. This is the birth of children in minors, the mass birth of children in women of mature age, the imbalance between natural and regulated births, between responsible and irresponsible parenting.
All of the above phenomena have unidirectional social consequences. They naturally increase the demographic load of the population, increase the risk of social orphanhood and insufficient socialization of the younger generation. All this is fraught with the formation of an uncompetitive society in the medium term. To avoid such negative phenomena and their consequences, it is necessary to carry out targeted work with young people, developing in them sustainable skills of responsible behavior and conscious parenthood.
It is fundamentally important to understand that fertility patterns not only depend on the social infrastructure of society, but also change as a result of their dynamics. It is not surprising that the birth rate of the primitive, agrarian, industrial, industrial and information society is different. These differences are social in nature. They are due to the different social infrastructure of society, the different terms of socialization of young people, as well as differences in the actual needs of the population and the objective probability of full satisfaction of the latter.
For the purposes of social management, the historically increasing gap between the level of natural (natural) and artificial fertility is important, as well as the recognition of the fact that our modern society is a society of artificial (regulated) fertility. And in the regulation of the birth rate, the subjective factor plays an increasingly important role - the decision of the spouses (marriage partners) regarding the birth or refusal to have a child. Taking into account the rapid process of differentiation of Russian society according to social, economic and financial criteria, it must be emphasized that the models of birth control in different strata and social groups manifest themselves in different ways. Today, they not only reflect the level of development of the social infrastructure of society as a whole, but also the specifics of the youth subculture, the peculiarities of the stereotypes of group behavior of certain ethnic groups and socially unequal strata of the population.
Under natural fertility understand marital fertility in the absence of any interference in the reproductive cycle. This unrestricted "spontaneous" birth rate became the subject of special demographic studies in the 1960s. last century, when the French demographer L. Henri (L. Henri, 1961) proposed the term "natural fertility". However, natural fertility cannot be considered an exclusively biological phenomenon. Despite its name (natural or natural), it socially conditioned and depends on the age of marriage, the duration of breastfeeding and other behavioral factors.
The desire of mankind to measure the value of natural fertility has a longer history than the introduction of this term into the theory of demography. So, back in the 17th century, J. Graunt proposed his own algorithm for calculating the possible maximum birth rate. J. Graunt proceeded from the fact that in his contemporary society, for every 1000 inhabitants, there were 300 women of reproductive age (from 15 to 49 years old), capable of giving birth, taking into account the period of gestation and feeding, with a frequency of “one child in two calendar years”. Based on these assumptions, it is easy to calculate that the value of the total fertility rate, which will be 150 ‰, or 150 births per 1000 population per year.
Two centuries later, in the 19th century, the indicated maximum birth rate was adjusted downward, taking into account the real conditions of life in an industrial society. This was done by I. Wappeus, designating as a theoretically possible, but practically unattainable, maximum birth rate equal to 100%.
In the 20th century, efforts to find a real birth rate corridor were intensified. L. Henri proposed to titrate the birth rates, using as a standard the birth rate of some African countries, which were distinguished by particularly high birth rates at the turn of the 1950s and 1960s. the last century.
Around the same time, E. Cole substantiated a different approach to choosing a birth standard. He noted the incompatibility of the lifestyle of the African population and the population of economically developed countries in terms of such indicators as the level of socio-economic development, sanitary and hygienic culture, intrauterine and infant mortality, and sex and age birth rates. E. Cole proposed to take the birth rate of the Hutterite sect as the standard of the 20th century, whose members were characterized by a high level of socio-economic development, a high sanitary and hygienic culture, universal marriage, a complete lack of contraception, a relatively short period of breastfeeding, as well as low levels of intrauterine and infant mortality . As a result of his work, E. Cowell considered it necessary to separate general, marital and extramarital births. For the calculation, they proposed the appropriate formulas. In the history of demography, these indicators entered as Cowell indices(general fertility index, marital fertility index, extramarital fertility index). In addition, a nomogram was built - a graph that reflects the age-specific dynamics of natural fertility among the population of economically developed territories in the middle of the 20th century. This chart is known as the Hutterite birth standard. It is shown in fig. 17.

Rice. 17. Standards of natural fertility and actual age-specific fertility of the population of Russia in 1998 (Cited in: V.M. Medkov, 2003. P. 229, Fig. 5.2.)

A logical continuation of the above works was research aimed at determining the lower limit of natural fertility among residents of industrialized countries. The assessment of the minimum values ​​of natural fertility was carried out by V.A. Borisov based on the analysis of mass factual data on the example of the population whose living conditions are within the sanitary norm, but within it are considered the least favorable. The standard identified on this basis corresponds to the minimum level of natural marital fertility, below which it cannot fall under normal sanitary conditions in the absence of any extreme socio-economic (force majeure) circumstances. This standard is known as hypothetical minimum natural birth standard or GMER. The age dynamics of this standard is also shown in fig. 17.
It is noteworthy that the real birth rate in Russia at the end of the 20th century (the period of perestroika and socio-economic reforms) significantly differs downward from both the Hutterite standard and the GMER standard for all age groups (see Fig. 17). This is proof that in the real conditions of life in modern Russia, not natural, but artificial (controlled) births are realized. The proposed thesis is documented by the statistical data of Table. 6.
The data in Table 6 indicate that in all periods of observation, i.e. throughout the second half of the 20th century, in Russia the reproductive potential of the population was not fully realized. Even the hypothetical minimum natural birth rate (GMER) exceeded the real birth rate in the country (RFR) by several times: from 1.7 times for the rural population in 1958-1959. up to 5.3 times for the urban population in 1993-1994.

Table 6
Crude Fertility Rates (TFRs), Hypothetical Minimum Natural Fertility (HMER) and Degree of GER Implementation in Russia
(Cited in: V.M. Medkov, 2003. P. 228, Table 5.7.)

The stability of the phenomenon of exceeding the GER of the real birth rate indicates that in the Russian society, the reproductive behavior of the population is more oriented to external socio-economic factors and to a lesser extent - to the biological instincts of procreation. In other words, the birth rate in Russian society in the second half of the 20th century is not a natural, but an artificial birth rate.
Artificial (controlled) birth rate - this is the one that is formed under the influence of the active use of contraceptives by the population. It is this variant of fertility that is typical today not only for Russia, but also for all economically developed countries of the world. In addition, it is characteristic of most developing countries that have chosen rapid economic development as their national priorities, such as China. Among other things, the new model of fertility (regulated) is manifested in a change in the age at which the first child is born and in the balance between marital and out-of-wedlock births. Both of these figures show a general upward trend. Rice. 18 and 19 illustrate this thesis on the example of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Quoted in: M. Klupt, 2008, pp. 99-100, fig. 3.4 and fig. 3.5.).

Rice. 18. Average age of a woman at the birth of her first child in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, years. Gray boxes are 1994, dark boxes are 2004.
Source: Eurostst Release 29/2006, March 2006

Fig.19. Share of illegitimate births in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, %. Gray boxes are 1990, dark boxes are 2004. Sources: Demoscope Weekly; Eurostst Release 136/2005, October 2005

The options for birth control are quite diverse. They constitute a whole group of socio-biological phenomena that lie in the range between fertility and fertility, between childlessness and childlessness. This sterility, infertility, infertility, childlessness. The main variants of these phenomena are described below. The subordination of the main variants of controlled birth is presented in the following diagram (Fig. 20).

Rice. 20. Relationship between different forms of fertility

Let us briefly outline the significant differences between the demographic concepts shown in the diagram. Fertility is the ability to reproduce offspring. Sterility is the inability to conceive. Infertility is the inability to reproduce offspring. Infertility is the absence of births. Childlessness - the absence of children in the family (may be associated with the early death of children). A detailed description of each of the above forms of fertility can be found in the textbook by V.M. Medkova "Fundamentals of Demography", Rostov-on-Don: "Phoenix", 2003. For the purposes of social management and organization of work with youth, the key is the fact that in the world of high technologies, the development of artificial insemination methods simultaneously with the increase in the terms of socialization and professional training For young people, conflicts related to resolving issues of regulated infertility of married and extramarital couples are becoming increasingly relevant. While the issues of sterility of married couples with the desire of spouses to have offspring are becoming less dramatic and are increasingly finding their positive medical resolution, the noted demographic transition is fundamentally changing the need for social birth control technologies. It changes the target audience, and also dramatically increases the number of those to whom these technologies will be addressed. So, if before the demographic transition, the tasks of sociologists included creating a favorable atmosphere in society for the preservation of childless families and the adoption of adopted children by them; now these tasks have been supplemented by the need to create a public opinion that positively perceives the ideas of planned responsible parenthood, everyday contraception, prolonged sexual abstinence in the absence of marriage and (or) long-term separation of spouses (business trips, internships, rotational work, etc.). Comparing the tasks of social managers before and after the demographic transition in fertility, we will clearly notice that they differ from each other not only in content and target audience. We note that they are targeted at different cohorts of the population: the leveling of social problems of sterility is focused on married couples with a sufficient level of social adaptation, and the formation of regulated infertility is aimed at a wide audience with different social, marital and age characteristics. In addition, the first audience is relatively small (no more than 10% of married couples are absolutely sterile), while the second audience is extremely large and practically covers the entire population of the country of reproductive age.
The circumstance that the social technologies demanded before and after the demographic transition deserves special attention is differently correlated with the natural instinct of procreation. Thus, social technologies aimed at smoothing out the socio-psychological problems of childlessness and encouraging adoption cases are consistent with the natural instincts of a person. In contrast, technologies for the formation of regulated and planned infertility (sexual abstinence and responsible contraception) are in conflict with the natural need to continue oneself in offspring. In addition, calls for planned births and responsible parenthood do not always correspond to the ethnic traditions of the titular nationalities of the Russian Federation and the basic provisions of traditional religions. On fig. 21 shows a diagram that illustrates the vector of transformation of natural fertility in a classic nuclear family in modern society.

Rice. 21. The influence of natural and artificial fertility on the continuity of generations and the social stability of society

The diagram reflects the impact of new medical technologies that translate the problems of sterility, civil and same-sex marriages into problems of infertility and foster parenthood. The diagram shows how the natural birth rate model, interacting with the artificial birth rate models, creates new socio-biological phenomena and modifies the basis of the stability of any society, namely, the generation continuity format.
In concluding this section, the following should be emphasized. The demographic transition from natural to artificial birth models is accompanied by an increase in intragenerational and intergenerational conflict, leads to an increase in the severity of anomies (ideological conflicts) in the mass and group consciousness, and actualizes the confrontation between the secular and religious worldview among residents of industrialized territories. This pattern is non-subjective. It is objective and reflects the discrepancy between the level of development of industrial technologies and the level of development of public consciousness and the associated set of traditionally supported stereotypes of reproductive behavior. The discovery of this pattern allows us to conclude that an unbalanced birth rate, an imbalance between the models of natural and artificial (regulated) births in society creates a threat to the stability of society in the medium and long term. These circumstances are forcing social demographers to reconsider a number of technologies and appeals, to adapt the concepts of demographic policy to the real conditions of society. Under these conditions, the organization of work with youth requires specialists in the field of social management to be extremely precise in their work, to pay increased attention to the basic and urgent needs of young people, and to be able to organize social management using soft, non-directive methods.
Used to measure fertility scorecard , which allow determining the general level of fertility, its dynamics, intensity and magnitude in various cohorts of the population (socio-economic and demographic groups).
Absolute number of births shows how many children were born in the population in a certain period of time (usually a year). This indicator captures the scale of the demographic phenomenon, but does not make it possible to compare different territories with each other, and, consequently, to adopt the experience of the social and demographic policy of one territory by another if these two territories differ significantly from each other in size and population density. To assess the comparability of demographic events and make a decision on the legality of transferring the experience of social management of one territory to another, relative indicators are used.
total fertility rate(CBR) is the number of births per year per 1000 population. The ratio is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population over a period, usually a year. The calculation of the indicator is carried out according to the formula:
N
n = x 1000 (‰),
P T
where n is the total fertility rate;
N is the number of live births;
P is the average population for the calculation period;
T is the length of the calculation period in years.

Value scaleCBR: values ​​less than 16 ‰ are considered low,
in the range from 16 to 24 ‰ - medium, from 25 to 29 ‰ - above average, from 30 to 40 ‰ - high, more than 40 ‰ - very high.
The total fertility rate in Russia in the 80s. of the last century (before the start of socio-economic reforms in the country) was at the level of 16 - 17 ‰ and corresponded to the average values ​​of the indicator, in the 90s. at the peak of perestroika events, it dropped to the level of 8 - 9 ‰, i.e. to the low value range. The dynamics of the indicator in the period from 1997 to 2004 is presented in Table. 7. As follows from the table, during the period of transition to a market economy, the birth rate in the Russian Federation is characterized by instability in the values ​​of its general coefficient. The indicator demonstrates slight fluctuations in the period from 1997 to 2000, an upward trend in 2001-2003, then to a decrease in 2004. Thus, a wave-like dynamics is revealed with periods of increase and decrease in the values ​​of the indicator. The minimum values ​​were recorded in 1999, i.e. in the year that followed the financial instability of 1998. The highest figures were recorded in 2003, when the consequences of financial shocks smoothed out and the attention of the Government of the Russian Federation to demographic problems increased.
Table 7
Birth rate dynamics in Russia for the period from 1997 to 2004

The presented data once again confirm the idea that the biological ability to bear children and its real embodiment in the social behavior of people differ significantly from each other, and the difference between them is determined not only by historical epochs, but also by narrower time frames, within which the controlling factors are financial and economic conditions of people's lives. In addition, the above facts testify to the high dynamism of fertility rates in Russia and indicate the need for a mobile transformation of social technologies for managing fertility, taking into account the financial situation in the country.
Speaking about the planning of social management technologies based on demographic indicators, it must be emphasized that conclusions based only on general coefficients may be false, since they do not take into account the complexity of demographic structures and processes. In particular, it must be remembered that the values ​​of all general indicators, including the general birth rate, depend on the age structure of the population and the intensity of the demographic process under study in the past. Therefore, when constructing a demographic policy and monitoring the effectiveness of this policy, it is advisable, in addition to the general birth rate, to analyze special and particular birth rates. Special and private indicators clarify the contribution of individual groups of the population to the process of fertility.
Special birth rate is calculated in relation to that part of the population that "produces" births, i.e. only to the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years). The demographic situation can be described in more detail using the age-specific fertility rate.
Age-specific fertility rate(ASFR) is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of a certain age to the average annual number of women of a given age.
Partial fertility rates give even more accurate and targeted characteristics. For example, it is known that the frequency of childbearing in married and unmarried women is not the same. For a separate assessment of marital and out-of-wedlock birth rates, partial coefficients are used.
The marital birth rate is defined as the ratio of the number of children born in a marriage to the average number of married women.
The extramarital birth rate is the ratio of the number of children born out of wedlock to the average number of unmarried women.
For the purposes of social management, those birth rates that characterize the reproductive potential of the population and the degree of its realization are of particular importance; reflect the prospects for population growth in the short, medium and long term. Indicators of this kind include the index of children, the total fertility rate.
Coefficient (index) of children - the ratio of the number of children aged 0-4 years to the number of women of reproductive (15-49 years) age. In Russia, the index of children according to the 1989 census was 0.747, including 0.682 in cities and 9.73 in rural areas. For comparison: Kenya - 1,004; Afghanistan - 0.895; China - 0.381; USA - 0.285; Germany - 0.191. Comparison of foreign indicators with Russian ones reveals an important pattern: the indicators of the Russian Federation are characterized by greater similarity with the data of developing countries than with the indicators of economically developed countries. This indicates that it is not possible to simply copy the technologies of social management of the countries of Europe, America and China in the Russian territories. On the contrary, the transfer to Russian reality of the experience of social management of countries with a developed market economy should be carried out carefully, thoughtfully, with full consideration of the real demographic situation.
Totalfertility rate(TFR) characterizes the average number of births per woman in a hypothetical generation over her entire life. Total coefficients above 4.0 are considered high, less than 2.15 - low, population stability is observed at 2.15-2.2. In table. Figure 8 shows the geographical features of fertility in the modern world: countries with three ranges of TFR values ​​(below 2.0; ranging from 2 to 3 and above 3) are highlighted.
Table 8
Geographical features of fertility
(total fertility rate - number of births per woman)

Obviously, the countries of the first group are in a situation where the number of parents is not reproduced in the generations of their descendants. For the countries of the second group, the reproduction of the population in a constant number from generation to generation is characteristic. The countries of the third group progressively increase in their numbers from generation to generation. It is logical to assume that the most dynamic demographic policy should be carried out in countries that are not stable in their numbers and demonstrate its rapid dynamics both downward and upward, since it is in these countries that the transformation of reproductive behavior patterns is carried out at the fastest pace. It is noteworthy that low birth rates are demonstrated by countries that are economically developed and rapidly developing, i.e. those where priority is given to the economic development of the territory.
Concluding the paragraph, we can draw the following conclusion: fertility is set by the biological framework of fertility, but is realized in society and is limited by social circumstances. The totality of natural instincts, individual desires and social capabilities of an individual form the final result - the reproductive behavior of the population, as well as the stereotypes of the reproductive behavior of individual strata and groups of the population.

5.2. Reproductive behavior: definition, reproductive strategies, main trends recorded inXXIV.

Reproductive behavior − a system of actions and relationships, as well as psychological states of the individual associated with the birth or refusal to give birth to children of any order in marriage or out of marriage.
Obviously, reproductive behavior is one of the types of social behavior. In addition to individual needs, its implementation reflects (directly and indirectly) ethnic, religious traditions, group stereotypes of behavior of various social groups and strata of the population.
The reproductive behavior of a person in society differs significantly from his biological ability to fertilize, bear healthy offspring and give birth to live children. Potentially great opportunities for social management lie in this discrepancy between biological inclinations and socially determined variants of reproductive behavior. Often, especially in conditions of economic stagnation and the global financial crisis, the instinct of procreation forms the basis of social aggression, serves as the basis for the development of international terrorism. More detailed information about demographic disproportions in society as objective causes and sources of the socio-psychological roots of modern terrorism can be obtained on the Internet. For this topic, it is important to note that there is a large distance between the ability to conceive and actual fertility. And every person goes through this distance in his life, filling it with his own decisions on how to build his life, the life of loved ones and the fate of future generations. In this struggle of instincts, freedom of choice and will, there is a huge field of activity for a thoughtful social manager. In order to successfully cope with complex management tasks in the field of demographic policy among young people, it is necessary to know the structure of demographic behavior. The main links of this structure are listed below.
Structure of reproductive behavior: reproductive needs - attitudes - motives - interests - plans - decisions - actions - results of actions.
In demography, the expression of reproductive behavior is the average number of children in a family and the average number of children born to a woman in her entire life, as well as the proportion between the number of ideal, desired and real children in a family. Information about this proportion is obtained as a result of special sociological studies and sample surveys timed to coincide with the conduct of general population censuses. The gap between the number of ideal, desired and real children in a family makes it possible to indirectly assess the degree of satisfaction of the biological and social needs of the population, to draw a conclusion about the harmony or, conversely, disharmony of reproductive behavior, to detect the phenomenon of insoluble conflicts (anomies) in the structure of life scenarios of the population as a whole or its individual social groups and strata. Assessment of the degree of harmony of reproductive behavior is one of the important foundations for the prevention of abnormal behavior of young people and the development of successful technologies for the social management of territories aimed at consolidating society. To create effective technologies of this type, it is necessary to take into account the relationship between reproductive behavior and environmental factors. These primarily include the following factors:

• social affiliation of people (social norms that may vary depending on the social status, income, occupation, profession of the respondents, the level of their workload, lack of free time, etc.; family and religious traditions; level of education);
• territorial differences in reproductive behavior (geographical and ethnic features, differentiation of fertility in settlements of different types, etc.).

Territorial and ethnic differences in the reproductive behavior of Russians were clearly revealed by the results of the 2002 general population census. It was established that low birth rates were registered in the North-Western and Central, and high - in the Volga-Vyatka, North Caucasus and Ural economic regions. Low birth rate is typical for Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians. Tatars, Bashkirs, Buryats, Tuvans, Yakuts, indigenous peoples of the North and the North Caucasus are characterized by a high birth rate. It can be said that under modern conditions on the territory of the Russian Federation, there are simultaneously two strategies of reproductive behavior, which have been studied in detail by population biology (Table 9).
Table 9
Basic Reproductive Behavior Strategies

When implementing demographic policy in the territories of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to fully take into account the diversity of the reproductive behavior of the population and choose the optimal technologies for social management, based on the social, territorial and ethnic specifics of the reproductive behavior of their inhabitants.
The economically developed countries of the modern world are characterized by a demographic transition in the reproductive behavior of their inhabitants in the form of a rejection of large families and the demand for a small family, which leads to a narrowed reproduction of the population and a decrease in the population in dynamics. The relationship between the birth rate and the level of historical development of society explores a special area of ​​historical demography. The revealed relationships are reflected in the concept of the evolution of fertility.

5.3. The evolution of fertility: the essence of the concept, the direction of the evolution of fertility in the transition from an industrial society to an information society

The evolution of fertility- this is a change in birth rates associated with the socio-economic development of society. Historically recorded natural process declining birth rate population with the development of productive forces, intellectual technologies, the involvement of women in social labor, the lengthening of the period of socialization and vocational training and the formation of the younger generation. In the transition from an agrarian to an industrial society, access to the means of subsistence for the majority of the population is facilitated, the opportunity to provide an acceptable level of prosperity increases, and the birth rate rises. But up to certain limits. The further development of an industrial society and its transition to a high-tech information society require a lot of effort and time for the socialization of young people and for them to achieve a sufficient level of education and training. This leads to the transfer of concerns about planned parenthood and childbearing to later ages. In a market society, an increase in living standards occurs against the background of a decrease in birth rates. This pattern is illustrated in Fig. 22.

Rice. 22. Diagram of the evolution of fertility

In the formation of the descending branch of the graph shown in fig. 22, a certain contribution is also made by the socio-demographic phenomenon known in the specialized literature as the "feedback paradox". This phenomenon was first described by demographers two centuries ago and consists in the fact that rich families, on average, have fewer children than poor ones. This phenomenon has a social stratification: first and most clearly it manifested itself in historical terms among the representatives of the intelligentsia, then among the workers, and lastly among the agricultural workers.
The fact of changing one fertility model to another (large children to small children) is denoted by the term demographic transition. In Europe, it was clearly marked in the 70s. of the last century, in Russia it was formed a generation later - in the 90s.
Rice. 23 clarifies this situation, showing that the transition from having many children to having few children in the EU countries occurred in the mid-1970s. the last century.

Rice. 23. Dynamics of the total fertility rate in France (upper graph) and Germany (lower graph) in the second half of the 20th century
(Cited in: M. Klupt, 2008, p. 48, fig. 1.1.)

Rice. 24 details the chronology of the demographic transition in the dynamics of reproductive behavior in relation to the situation in Russia. It follows from the figure that in the Russian Federation a noticeable decrease in the number of births per woman of reproductive age occurred a decade later than in Europe, although the trend towards small families among the urban population was already formed in the early 1960s. the last century.

Rice. Fig. 24. Dynamics of the total fertility rate (TFR - the number of births per woman of reproductive age) in Russia for the period from 1961 to 2004. The upper broken line is the rural population; medium - the entire population; the lower one is urban.

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In studying the causes that determine the state and dynamics of the birth rate, demographers have long sought to distinguish between the factors of structure and the factors of behavior of people and families in their cumulative effect on the birth rate. In world demography, several methods of such a distinction are known. All of them in one way or another are based on the use of the concept of natural fertility, proposed in 1961 by the French demographer Louis Henri. Natural fertility is such a fertility, the level of which is determined only by physiological and structural factors, i.e., the state of fertility and the structure of the population by sex, age and marital status, in the complete absence of intentional birth control using contraceptives and abortions ( FOOTNOTE: For details, see: Population Encyclopedic Dictionary. Great Russian Encyclopedia. M., 1994. S. 137; Borisov V.A. Fertility prospects. M., 1976. S. 25-49). Natural fertility exists quite realistically in any population (regardless of the prevalence of measures of intra-family fertility restriction) in the form of some socio-biological potential, which is realized only partially depending on the socio-economic, cultural, psychological and other factors that influence the formation and satisfaction of the need people including children. Of course, in modern populations with a widespread practice of limiting the number of children in the family within the family, the level of natural fertility can only be determined hypothetically. Nevertheless, the measurement of such a hypothetical level of socio-biological potential seems important and even necessary precisely in order to, by comparing the actual birth rate with its socio-biological potential, specific for each real population, to have an idea of ​​the extent of the prevalence among the population of methods of intentional (volitional ) intrafamilial restriction of fertility, the role of the behavioral factor in fertility.

NATURAL FERTILITY, a birth rate not limited by contraceptive measures and induced abortions. The term "Natural fertility" was introduced into scientific circulation in 1961 by the French demographer L. Henri as opposed to "controlled birth". Natural fertility is not identical to fertility, because fertility is not fully realized in natural fertility. It is also not equivalent to the sometimes used inaccurate concepts of "purely biological" or "spontaneous" fertility. Fertility as a process is always social, and in the absence of the practice of contraception and artificial abortions, childbearing is limited (controlled, regulated) by the influence of social norms that regulate marital and family status, child care, etc.

The concept of natural fertility is used to approximate the degree of intrafamilial restriction of childbearing, which is defined as the relative difference between the levels of actual and natural fertility. In the modern urbanized population, which widely practices the restriction of childbearing, the level of natural fertility can only be determined hypothetically. There are various approaches to its definition. One of them is equating the hypothetical natural birth rate of the modern population with the actual birth rate of any population that does not practice contraception and abortion, is not subject to mass diseases that reduce fertility, and in which celibacy and late marriages are not common. As a model of natural fertility, age-specific marriage fertility rates of the Hutterites are often used - a small religious sect of people of European origin that exists in North America, whose members, due to religious beliefs, do not practice childbearing restrictions (A. Cole, 1967, 1969; I. Carlson, 1966; T Espensheid, 1971, etc.). Using this approach, Cole constructed a system of indices that made it possible to compare changes in nuptiality and fertility occurring in any actual population with Hutterite indicators and thereby measure the dynamics of intrafamilial birth control. Another approach is that the model of natural fertility is taken as the average distribution of age-specific marital fertility rates for a group of populations that do not use methods of limiting childbearing (L. Henri, 1961, etc.). Mathematical simulation models of fertility are also used as a model of natural fertility, taking into account the parameters of the reproductive process: age-related probabilities of fertility, sterility, stillbirths, spontaneous abortions, etc. (M. Sheps, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969; J. Home , 1970; I. Holmberg, 1970, 1972; G. Santou, 1978, etc.). Using a combination of a simulation model and the average distribution of age-specific marital fertility rates over the highest fertility population, the current literature (1971) proposes a method to measure a hypothetical minimum natural fertility (HMER) for any real birth-controlled population. Unlike the Cole method, this method gives a more conservative estimate of the degree of intrafamilial restriction of childbearing.

V. A. Borisov.

Demographic encyclopedic dictionary. - M.: Soviet Encyclopedia. Chief editor D.I. Valentey. 1985.

Literature

Borisov V. A., Prospects for fertility, M. 1976, p. 25-69; Cole, E.J., European fertility decline from the French Revolution to World War II, trans. from English, in the book: Marriage, fertility, family for three centuries, M. 1979; Tekshe K., Features of fertility in Central and Southern Europe before the First World War, trans. from English, ibid.; Henry L., Some data on natural fertility, "Eugenics Quarterly", 1961, v. 8, no. 2, p. 81-91; Espenshade T. J. A new method for estimating the level of natural fertility in populations practicing birth control, "Demography", 1971, v. 8, M. 4, p. 525 - 536.

Cumulative birth rates at a given age

For real generations, the same indicators are calculated as for calendar periods, with the exception of the total birth rate. Thus, everything that was said above about the birth rates for a hypothetical generation applies, with some modifications, to the rates for the real generation. These modifications concern both the number of births (i.e., the numerator) and the denominator against which these coefficients are calculated (i.e., the number of women). The most significant difference between the calculation of indicators for conditional and real generations is that in the first case, the coefficients are calculated relative to the average annual number, and in the second - relative to the population that has reached the exact value of a particular age. In other words, in the second case we are dealing with probabilities.

For real generations, the most commonly calculated cumulative birth rates at a given age. They say what is the average number of births that took place in a generation (marriage cohort) by a particular age (usually per 1 person, 100 or 1000 people). Among the cumulative indicators, the most important is coefficient of total (exhausted) birth rate of the cohort. It represents the average number of births per woman of the real generation by the age of 50, i.e., by the end of the reproductive period. The dynamics of this indicator most accurately characterizes changes in fertility over long periods of time, from generation to generation. The advantage of the total (exhausted) birth rate of a cohort is also its independence from fluctuations in demographic structure factors.

Russian demographer V.A. Borisov, developing his version of the normative approach, proceeded from the fact that it is methodologically incorrect to use the Hutterite birth rate as a standard of natural birth rate due to the uniqueness of this subpopulation. In his opinion, only a standard developed on the basis of a mathematical model of the reproductive process can be such a standard, since only in this case it is possible to “use mass factual data”. According to V.A. Borisov, it is more correct to determine not the maximum, but the minimum of natural fertility, in order to be sure that the level of natural marriageable fertility will not fall below this minimum under normal sanitary conditions. Therefore, in the mentioned mathematical model, it is necessary to take such values ​​of its parameters that would be within the limits of the sanitary norm and would be the least favorable within its limits.

Based on these premises, V.A. Borisov calculates the marital birth rate for the age of 20-24 years. As a result, he obtained the value of the age-specific fertility rate for this age, equal to 400‰. For older ages, he retreated from modeling the reproductive process, applying, like L. Henri, averaging age-specific fertility rates for 8 real populations, in which ASFR 20-24 significantly exceeds 400‰, normalizing ASFR for older ages relative to age 20-24 year, as well as converting the model value of ASFR 20-24 into age-specific fertility rates using these normalization factors.

As a result of this multi-stage procedure, V.A. Borisov received his standard of natural fertility, which he called "a hypothetical minimum of natural fertility", or GMER. According to V.A. Borisov, age-specific birth rate can not be below these values ​​unless there are any extreme circumstances.

Regarding extramarital births and at ages younger than 20 years and older than 49 years, V.A. Borisov believed that “it seems most correct to leave the actual number unchanged (i.e., to assume that the number of births out of wedlock and to mothers younger than 20 and older than 49 under conditions of natural fertility would be the same as it actually is)” .

Then, using the indicators of the age-specific fertility of the standard and actual data on the age structure of women of reproductive age, the expected values ​​of the absolute number of births and the total fertility rate are calculated, which are compared with the actual ones. The difference between the expected and actual values ​​characterizes the degree of implementation of the GMER, the prevalence of intentional birth control among the population, the role of the behavioral component of fertility and the contribution of reproductive behavior to its level.

ü The GMER coefficient in one number characterizes the marriage and age structure of the population in terms of the socio-biological potential of fertility. An increase or decrease in the value of the GMER coefficient indicates, respectively, an improvement or deterioration in the marriage-age structure of the population. The ratio of the actual total fertility rate to the GMER coefficient of the same population (or better, more precisely: the ratio of the actual number of births to the hypothetical one) allows you to get an approximate, but close enough to reality, idea of ​​the degree of realization of the fertility potential.

Graph 5.2 shows curves characterizing the age-specific birth rate of Hutterites, the standard of GMER V.A. Borisov and the actual birth rate of the Russian population in 1998. Using the GMER coefficients, it is possible, using special indices, to quantify the contribution to fertility changes both behavioral (the degree of implementation of the GMER, i.e., the prevalence of family birth control) and structural (age and marital composition ) components.