Exercises and tasks. Formulate the definition of the object of observation
BASIC CONCEPTS AND STATISTICS CATEGORIES
Topic 1. SUBJECT AND OBJECTIVES OF STATISTICS.
Statistics– it is a social science that studies the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of mass phenomena and processes in society, as well as the economic and social conditions of society.
Objects statistical research - phenomena and processes occurring in society.
Item statistics - quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the studied mass phenomena and processes in their interconnection and continuous development.
Theoretical basis statistics - economic theory.
Global challenge statistics - preparation and submission to the government of the country of scientifically grounded and reliable information on the state and development of the country's economy.
Main accounting and statistical center of the country- Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (FSGS RF).
Statistical population- the studied mass phenomenon or process.
Statistical unit- a separate element that makes up a statistical population.
Each unit of the statistical population has a certain value of the studied attribute.
Variation feature - the change in the value of a feature from one unit of the population to another.
Features are divided into: quantitative and qualitative (attributive); primary and secondary; multiple and alternative; discontinuous and continuous; factorial and effective; essential and non-essential.
Statistical indicator- quantitative characteristics of the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes.
Statistical methodology- a set of techniques and methods by which statistics study their subject.
The main stages of statistical research:
1. Statistical observation.
2. Summary and grouping.
3. Calculation of generalizing indicators and analysis of the data obtained.
Statistical observation consists in collecting complete and reliable primary information about the phenomenon (or process) under study by registering the individual values of the trait in individual units of the initial population.
Organizational forms of statistical observation: statistical reporting and specially organized observation.
Types of statistical observation:
By the coverage of units of the studied population: continuous and discontinuous;
By the nature of the registration of a feature in time: discontinuous and continuous.
The main ways of conducting statistical observation: direct, documentary and survey.
Unit of statistical observation- the primary cell from which the necessary statistics are to be obtained.
Observation object- a set of units of the studied phenomenon, about which it is necessary to collect primary statistical data.
Critical moment of observation- the date on which the collected data is recorded.
Observation plan (program)- a document containing methodological and organizational issues of observation .
In order to identify possible errors of registration and errors of representativeness, logical and arithmetic control of data is carried out.
Self-help assignments
1. Supermarket "Ramstore" instructs you to develop a customer survey form in order to study the satisfaction of demand and determine the time spent on purchasing the necessary goods. Also, define the type and method of observation.
2. Make a draft program for statistical study:
a) the time budget of a 1-year student of the day department of the Russian Economic Academy. G.V. Plekhanov;
b) the provision of the population of Moscow with vehicles;
c) the standard of living of students of the Russian Economic Academy. G.V. Plekhanov.
3. It is planned to organize a statistical survey of tourists leaving the Russian Federation. What type of statistical observation is advisable to choose?
4. The following types of statistical observation are given:
- population census;
- registration of graduates of higher educational institutions;
- annual reporting on the activities of financial institutions;
- study of the time spent in the family for cooking.
Determine how the data collection can be organized.
5.Using logical controls, establish the presence of errors and the possibility of their correction in the following questionnaire:
Surname, name, patronymic - Ivanova Lidia Sergeevna
Female gender
Age (number of completed years) - 48
Currently married - yes
Higher education
Source of livelihood - scholarship
Occupation at work - accountant
6. At your faculty, it is supposed to conduct statistical observation to study the opinions of students about the organization of the educational process and about teachers in the disciplines studied.
You need to define the programmatic, methodological and organizational issues of observation.
7. Define the object and unit of observation, as well as tasks:
- census of pensioners of the Russian Federation;
Make a monitoring program.
8. For the development of a program of assistance to young families, it is planned to conduct an observation. What type of statistical observation is advisable to choose?
Formulate the questions to include in the survey design.
9. It is assumed your participation in carrying out one of the following statistical observations in Moscow:
- census of students of higher educational institutions;
- census of industrial enterprises;
- census of theaters and museums;
- census of health care institutions;
- studying the demand of the population for cars;
- census of trade organizations;
- studying public opinion on specific issues.
For each of the observations, define: purpose and objectives; object and unit; main features to be registered; type and method of observation.
10. Define the object, unit and objectives of the observation, as well as draw up the observation program:
- census of pensioners of the Russian Federation;
- census of insurance companies in the country;
- surveys of trade enterprises in Moscow.
11. To develop a program of assistance to young families, it is planned to conduct an observation. What type of statistical observation is advisable to choose?
Formulate the questions to include in the survey design.
12. Determine the object of observation and the unit of the population, and also draw up a survey program:
a) differentiation of wages of workers in sectors of the economy;
b) changes in the level of prices for food products in Moscow;
c) census of healthcare institutions in Moscow;
d) census of preschool institutions in Moscow.
Control questions
1. What is the statistical observation?
2. Name two organizational forms of statistical observation. When are they used?
3. What is the unit of statistical observation?
4. Name the main methods and types of statistical observation.
5. Why is the statistical observation program approved?
2. The all-Russian population census of 2002 was carried out from 9 to 16 October 2002 as of 0:00 from 8 to 9 October. The counter came:
a) family number 1 - October 10. A child was born to this family on October 9. Does the enumerator have to enter information about the child born on the census form?
b) family number 2 - October 15th. In this family, on October 14, a family member died. Does the enumerator have to enter information about the deceased on the census form?
c) family number 3 - October 16. In this family, on October 12, the newlyweds registered their marriage at the registry office. What is the answer the counter should write down to the questionnaire "Married"
3.Using logical controls, check the following answers to the census questionnaire questions:
Check the following data obtained from kindergarten with the help of counting (arithmetic) control. Make a conclusion.
a) Total children in kindergarten - 133
b) Including: in senior groups - 37,
in the middle - 43,
in the younger ones - 58
v) Of the total number of children: boys - 72,
girls - 66
________________________
________________________
5. Formulate the definition of the object of observation, observation units:
Homework
on the topic "Statistical observation"
1. Give examples of different types of statistical observation according to media data (over the past 5-7 years)
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2. Develop programmatic and methodological questions of statistical observation on the topic of your choice, draw up in the form of a table:
Organizational plan for statistical observation
| Event | Dates of the | Responsible |
Terminological dictionary
Statistical observation- mass, planned, scientifically organized observation of the phenomena of social and economic life, which consists in registering the characteristics selected for each unit of the population.
Objective of observation- obtaining reliable information to identify patterns of development of phenomena and processes.
Observation object- a statistical aggregate in which the investigated socio-economic phenomena and processes occur.
Observation unit- a constituent element of the object, which is the carrier of the characteristics that are subject to registration.
Reporting unit- the subject from which the data on the observation unit is received.
Observation program- a list of signs (or questions) to be registered during the observation process.
Statistical form- a document of a single sample containing the program and the results of observation.
Critical moment (date)- day of the year, hour of the day, as of which the registration of signs should be carried out for each unit of the studied population.
Term (period) of observation- the time during which the statistical forms are filled in.
Reporting- the main form of statistical observation, with the help of which the statistical authorities, within a certain time frame, receive from enterprises, institutions and organizations the necessary data in the form of legally established reporting documents, certified by the signatures of the persons responsible for their provision and the reliability of the information collected.
Census- specially organized observation, repeated, as a rule, at regular intervals, in order to obtain data on the number, composition and state of the object of statistical observation for a number of signs.
Register observation- a form of continuous statistical observation of long-term processes with a fixed beginning, a stage of development and a fixed end.
Direct observation- the recorders, by direct measurement, weighing, counting or checking the work, and so on, establish the fact that is subject to registration, and on this basis, make entries in the observation form.
Documentary way of observation- based on the use of various types of documents as a source of statistical information, usually of an accounting nature.
Survey- a way of observation, in which the observed information is obtained from the words of the respondent.
Current observation- observation, when changes in relation to the studied phenomena are recorded as they occur.
One-time examination- information is given about the quantitative characteristics of any phenomenon or process at the time of its research.
Continuous observation- obtaining information about all units of the studied population.
Discontinuous observation- only part of the units of the studied population is subject to examination.
Accuracy of statistical observation- the degree to which the value of any indicator, determined from the materials of statistical observation, corresponds to its actual value.
Observation error- the discrepancy between the calculated and actual values of the studied quantities.
Additional material
| Concepts related to the formation of an information base | |
| Concepts | Specifications |
| Information | Derived from the Latin word "clarification, presentation". This is a general scientific concept that includes the exchange of information between people, man and an automaton, the exchange of signals in the animal and plant world. |
| Statistical information | A set of information of a social and economic nature, on the basis of which functions such as accounting and control, planning, management and statistical analysis are carried out. |
| Sources of statistical information | They are state statistics bodies, organizations conducting sociological surveys, etc. |
| Requirements for statistical information | These are: 1) the accuracy, completeness and representativeness of the information received about socio-economic processes and phenomena; 2) compliance with the research objectives (the same information is adequate for solving some and not adequate for others); 3) the reliability of information as the degree of correspondence of statistical information to the displayed reality; 4) mass character, obtaining sufficient volume of the studied population for analysis; 5) the systematic collection and processing of information; 6) a scientific approach to information based on methods of cognition of reality and general provisions of statistics as a science; 7) the adequacy of the information to the essence and nature of the studied phenomena. |
| Other types of information (besides statistical) that the statistician should use | These are: 1) accounting data (that is, continuous registration of the availability and movement of material and financial resources of the organization); 2) data of operational and technical reporting (that is, a set of registered individual events and facts immediately at the time of their occurrence), reflecting the technological state of the object at a particular point in time; 3) data from sociological studies, which are characterized by the influence of a subjective factor, the need to take into account group, class, social motives, interests, etc. |
Section 3. Summary and grouping of statistics
| Lesson topic | Methodological support of the lesson | Literature | Note (independent work) |
| Objectives and types of statistical summary. Grouping method in statistics | Visual Aid - Distribution Series | Ch. 3. Paragraphs 3.1-3.2, 3.5 | - |
| Distribution series in statistics | Ch. 3. Paragraphs 3.1-3.2, 3.5 Textbook ed. I.G. Small Theory of statistics p.78-109 | 3 hours Solving problems for grouping statistical data. Execution of tasks for the construction of distribution series and their graphic representation. Select examples of distribution series and tables from newspapers and magazines | |
| Construction of distribution series and their graphic representation. | Collection of tasks | Ch. 3 Paragraphs 3.1-3.2, 3.4 | - |
The student should know:
ü basic methods of collecting, processing, analyzing and visual presentation of information
ü concepts: statistical summary, grouping of statistical data, distribution series.
ü types of summary
ü types of groupings
ü grouping signs.
ü Sturgess formula
The student should be able to:
ü collect and register statistical information;
ü build attributive and variation distribution series, simple and complex groupings.
ü determine the elements of the variation series.
ü determine the size of the interval.
ü Perform regrouping of statistical data.
ü build graphs of distribution series
Section plan:
Topic 3.1. Statistical summary tasks and types
1. Understanding the statistical summary
2. Methodological issues of statistical groupings, their importance in economic research
3. Tasks of statistical groupings, their types
Topic 3.2. Distribution series in statistics
5. Statistical distribution series
6. Statistical tables
7. Development of predicate statistical tables
8. Basic rules for compiling tables
Questions for self-control
1. What are the first and second stages of statistical research and what is their significance?
2. What types of summary do you know? Give a brief description of them.
3. What is called a statistical grouping and grouping characteristics?
4. What types of groupings do you know? Give a brief description of them.
5. What is the significance of the grouping method in the analysis of statistical data?
6. What are the main tasks solved by the researcher using the grouping method?
7. What is the role and importance of classifications? What are some examples of the most important classifications?
8. What groupings are called combinational? Give an example?
9. What is the difference between combinational grouping and multidimensional?
10. How is the grouping performed if the grouping attribute is discrete?
11. In what cases is it necessary to determine the intervals of grouping by quantitative characteristics?
12. How is the number of groups and the boundaries of the intervals between them determined?
13. What are the intervals of groupings and how to accurately mark their boundaries. Give examples.
14. What is called a secondary grouping, when do you have to resort to it and how to get new groups based on the existing ones?
15. What are the statistical distribution series and on what grounds can they be formed?
16. How are the distribution series of variation subdivided and on what features are they based?
17. What is the technique for constructing discrete and interval distribution series? Give examples.
18. What are the functions of statistical tables?
19. What types of tables are there for building a subject?
20. List the basic requirements for the design of tables.
Practice test
on the topic "Summary and Grouping of Statistical Data"
1. Students of higher educational institutions are divided into students in correspondence, full-time and evening departments. This grouping is:
a) typological:
b) structural;
c) analytical.
2. In order to study the relationship between students' academic performance and their age, an analytical grouping is carried out. Data should be grouped by:
a) student performance;
b) the age of the students.
3. The population living in any territory is divided into groups according to social status. The resulting series is called:
a) variation;
b) attributive;
c) alternative;
d) discrete;
e) interval.
4. A summary in a statistical observation is called:
a) combining units of the population into some groups that have their own characteristic features, common features and similar sizes of the studied trait;
b) a special stage of statistical research, during which the primary materials of statistical observation are systematized;
c) an object characterized by numbers.
5. Grouping is:
a) ordering the units of the population according to the selected feature;
b) a breakdown of population units into groups according to an essential feature;
c) generalization of isolated facts.
6. A grouping that identifies the relationship between phenomena and their signs is called:
a) analytical;
b) structural;
c) typological.
7. A grouping in which a heterogeneous population is divided into homogeneous groups is called:
a) analytical;
b) structural;
c) typological.
8. A grouping based on three criteria is called:
a) distribution series;
b) simple;
c) combinational.
9. The grouping feature when building an analytical grouping is:
a) factorial;
b) effective;
c) factorial and effective.
10. The basis of the grouping can be:
a) attributive feature;
b) a quantitative feature;
c) both attributive and quantitative characteristics.
11. Groupings are distinguished by:
a) organizing data collection;
b) by the number of grouping signs;
c) according to the depth of material processing.
12. The distribution series, built on a qualitative basis, is called:
a) attributive;
b) continuous;
c) numeric.
13. The variational distribution series is a series built:
a) by attribution;
b) quantitatively;
c) both attributive and quantitative criteria.
14. In the theory of statistics, using the grouping method, one studies:
a) statistical relationships between phenomena;
b) regression dependencies;
c) the dynamics of processes.
15. In the theory of statistics, the statistical summary program includes the formation of:
a) objects of observation;
b) reporting units;
c) groups and subgroups.
16. Discrete variation series is graphically depicted using:
a) polygon;
b) histograms;
c) cumulates.
17. The accumulated frequencies are used when plotting:
a) polygon;
b) histograms;
c) cumulates.
18. The interval is:
a) the difference between the maximum and minimum values of the attribute in the aggregate;
b) the difference between the upper and lower boundaries of the values of the attribute for one group;
c) the difference between the number of units (frequencies) of neighboring groups.
19. The distribution series is:
a) a set of features arranged in a certain order;
b) differentiation of units of the population according to one of the characteristics;
c) units of the population, arranged in the order of ages or decreasing values of the attribute.
20. Ranking means:
a) determination of the limit (interval) of changes in the values of the variable attribute;
b) quantitative assessment of the degree of variation of the studied trait,
c) the arrangement of all values in ascending (or descending) order.
Practical tasks
on the topic "Summary and Grouping of Statistical Data"
Similar information.
2.3. Program and methodological issues of statistical observation
In statistical observation, it is necessary, first of all, to determine its object and unit.
The object of statistical research and, accordingly, observation is the population about which the necessary information should be collected.
The object of observation can be, for example, the totality of the inhabitants of the country, industrial enterprises, peasant farms, commercial banks, higher educational institutions, the future harvest, etc.
The unit of observation is that component of the object of observation, which is the carrier of the features to be registered. It is necessary to distinguish between units of observation and statistical analysis of the object of study.
Thus, in a survey of household budgets, the unit of observation is the person, and the statistical unit of analysis is the household, i.e. a group of people united by a common budget for running a household (not to be confused with a family). When researching sectors of the economy, both a statistical and a unit of observation can be an organization - a legal entity carrying out the relevant activities; also the unit of observation can be separate divisions of organizations.
Thus, the choice of an element of an object as a unit of observation depends on the purpose of the study and the nature of the object itself. Moreover, the definition of a unit must contain an indication of its most important distinctive features.
An observation unit, like an object as a whole, usually has many different features. It is impossible to take all of them into account, and many are unnecessary. Therefore, when organizing statistical observation, the question arises as to what signs should be recorded in the observation process.
The list of signs registered during the observation process is called a statistical observation program.
A number of requirements are imposed on the observation program, which it must meet in any statistical study. The most important of them are the following:
the program should contain essential features, if possible, directly characterizing the phenomenon under study, its type, main features, properties;
secondary issues should not be included in the program, since they complicate the work of collecting information, and in the future - on its processing and analysis;
when developing a program, it is necessary to strive for the completeness of the information collected;
the observation program should include only such questions to which objective and accurate answers can be obtained;
the program should include control questions that serve the purpose of checking and clarifying the information collected.
The compilation of the observation program should be focused on solving the set tasks of statistical research, which are formalized in the form of a program for the development of its materials - a list of indicators of the target population that are of primary interest. The development program - the summary results of the study - determine the tasks of statistical observation, what kind of data should be collected and in what form the results of their processing should be formalized. Thus, the program for the development of observation materials is primary in relation to the observation program.
The observation form is a scrapped sheet (s) of paper containing a list of questions from the observation program and free spaces for recording answers to them, including in the form of response codes. The reporting form is called a form of state statistical observation.
Mandatory elements of any form are the title and address parts. The title part usually contains the name of the statistical observation and the organization conducting it. If the observation is carried out by official statistical bodies, then in the title part there is information about the decree by which this form was approved, the number assigned to it in the general system of observation forms carried out by this statistical body. The address part provides for a record of the exact address of a unit or set of units of observation and some other information about them.
In the forms of state statistical observation, in addition, it is indicated in what time frame and at what addresses the completed forms should be sent, and also provides a place for recording the contact phone number, e-mail address and signatures of persons responsible for the correctness of the information contained in them.
The wording of the questions on the observation form is extremely important. Questions should be formulated as concisely, clearly and clearly as possible, so that their understanding does not cause difficulties and that their different interpretation is not possible. However, no matter how clear the questions of the form may seem, instructions are usually given to it.
An instruction is a set of explanations and instructions, mainly for a statistical observation program. The instruction can be presented as a separate brochure or written directly in the field of the observation form. Instructions should be written briefly, simply, explanations and directions should be clear and concise.
Sometimes in the form, after a question, some options for possible answers to it are immediately given. The list of possible answers to the question posed is called a statistical hint. If an exhaustive list of possible answers to a question is given, the hint is called complete, but if only some of the possible answers are indicated, it is incomplete.
An example of a form with a hint is shown below. This questionnaire is a statistical survey conducted by Realist to characterize the current price level and emerging trends in the new and used car market.
Rice. 1. Car characteristics questionnaire
When organizing a statistical observation, it is necessary to decide the question of the time of this observation, including the choice of the season, the establishment of the observation period (period), and in some cases the so-called critical moment.
The observation period (period) is the time during which the facts are recorded according to the established program - the values of the signs of the observation units.
The observation period is determined by many factors, the most important of which are the following:
features of the object of observation (its size, condition at one time or another, etc.);
the size and complexity of the surveillance program;
type of observation by the source of information;
availability of personnel who can be involved in the observation, their number and degree of qualifications.
The critical moment of statistical observation (usually a census) is the moment in time at which the registration of the collected information is made. The critical moment of the last census was 0:00 on October 9, 2002.
In practice, they usually strive to ensure that the process of registering information is not too far from the critical moment. After all, the further away it is, the more changes will occur in the object of observation and the more difficult it will be to restore the state of the object at a critical moment.
The observation period, as a rule, is indicated by the indication of the date (sometimes the hour) of the beginning and end of the observation. In some cases, an indication is added and the number of days during which it must be held. For some statistical observations, a period is set (day of the week, day of the month or the number of days after the critical moment), no later than which the data must be presented as intended.
2.4. Main organizational issues and stages of statistical observation
In order to successfully conduct the observation, its organizational plan is being developed.
An organizational plan for statistical observation is a document that fixes the solution to the most important issues of preparation and conduct of statistical observation, indicating specific dates for the planned activities.
The organizational plan indicates:
the object of observation (its definition, description is given, distinctive features are indicated);
goals and objectives of observation;
structural divisions of the organization that prepare and conduct supervision and managers who are responsible for this work;
time and timing of observation;
preparatory work for the observation (including the procedure for recruiting and training personnel necessary for the observation);
the procedure for conducting observation;
the procedure for receiving and submitting observation materials;
the procedure for obtaining and presenting preliminary and final results, etc.
Rice. 2. Diagram of the organization and conduct of statistical observation
2.5. The quality of the results of statistical observation and its control
The concept of statistical data quality includes two main aspects. The first of them reflects the degree of the need and suitability of information for use by consumers, and the second is actually statistical. The term reliability is used to describe the latter. The reliability of the results of statistical observation is the degree to which the value of any indicator found by means of statistical observation corresponds to its actual value.
Confidence is usually measured or described in terms of statistical observation errors, which are the ratio or difference between observation data and the actual values of the studied quantities. Errors are caused by the main sources of error at the stages of statistical observation. Among them are incomplete coverage of the real study population, sampling errors, cases of respondents' refusal to provide the necessary information or deliberate distortion of the information provided, as well as inaccuracies associated with statistical data processing.
The indicated sources of possible errors are inherent in certain stages of statistical observation, such as creating a list of observation units, sampling, collecting and processing primary data, calculating the values of indicators and analyzing the obtained observation results.
Depending on the nature, degree of influence on the final results of observation, sources and causes of inaccuracies, the following types of observation errors are distinguished.
Registration (or measurement) errors occur due to incorrect establishment of facts in the process of observation, or inaccuracies in recording them, or both. Four sources of their origin should be kept in mind: the interviewer, the respondent, the observation form and the method of obtaining information (by mail, by telephone, direct contact of the interviewer with the respondent, etc.).
Registration errors are called random errors that arise as a result of various random factors. For example, the respondent could make a reservation, the recorder could misheard or accidentally rearrange the numbers.
Such errors can usually be easily detected during the processing of primary data due to the absurdity or low probability of the appearance of such feature values. So doubts are raised by the data that a 15-year-old girl has two children - either the age or the number of children is incorrect. If this fact does take place, then due to its atypical nature, it must be checked additionally. Less obvious measurement errors with a sufficiently large number of observation units are leveled out due to the action of the law of large numbers - such errors are mutually canceled out.
Systematic registration errors occur under the influence of well-defined reasons. In each case, they act in the same direction and lead to serious distortions of the overall results of statistical observation.
Examples of systematic registration errors in the population census are cases when women underestimate their age. Also, when observing the population, there is a general tendency for the respondents to underestimate the reported information on a direct question about the level of income or the amount of alcohol consumed.
In the economic sphere, systematic registration errors can be the result of a deliberate distortion of facts in the financial statements of enterprises in order to hide the real volumes of activity from paying taxes.
The influence of registration errors on the results of continuous observation is often controlled on a selective basis due to the high laboriousness of the application of procedures for checking a significant number of primary data.
The quality of the results of selective statistical observation is characterized by the reliability of the estimates of indicators calculated for the sample. The results of sample observation almost always differ somewhat from the true, unknown at the time of the observation, the values of the indicators of the studied population. These biases are called sampling errors.
Systematic sampling errors occur in cases where the principle of random selection is violated and the sample includes units that have uncharacteristic properties for all units of the general population.
Random sampling errors are due to the fact that even with careful planning, the sample cannot accurately reproduce the structure of the general population. Therefore, random errors are inherent in selective observation. They are acceptable as long as they are small enough. It should be emphasized that random errors can be calculated from the data of the sample itself (without knowing the true values of the parameters of the target population).
At the end of the observation, the materials collected in the course of its conduct should be carefully checked. The check is carried out from the point of view of: a) the completeness of the coverage of the object by observation and b) the quality of filling in the graph of observation forms. Therefore, when planning any statistical observation, it is necessary to provide for the stage of control and editing of the collected primary data.
Editing is the process of detecting and correcting errors in raw surveillance data. As noted, error refers to the difference between the measured value and the corresponding true data value. True value is defined as the value that could be obtained from the respondent if the ideal (more expensive) observational measurement procedure was used.
Editing can be of two types depending on the methods used.
The first type of editing is associated with the identification of data values that are possibly, with varying degrees of probability, erroneous. Associated with this type of editing is a wide class of stochastic (probabilistic) methods for correcting erroneous values and filling in gaps in data.
The second type is logical and arithmetic data control, in which the values of features and indicators must meet predetermined rules (ratios). Therefore, editing in this case is a process of checking the compliance of the data with the established rules. Values that do not pass logical or arithmetic checks are erroneous and must be corrected.
Correction is usually based on the use of deterministic methods, that is, using calculation formulas, the arguments in which are the recognized values of signs and indicators of the same unit of the current observation period or some previous one (or information about this unit of observation obtained from other sources of information).
2.6. Practical task
Appendix 1 contains copies of the forms of the All-Union Population Census of 1979, 1989, as well as the All-Russian Population Census of 2002. Having carefully examined and compared them with each other, answer the following questions:
What kind does each of them belong to?
Give a definition of the object of each of the censuses.
What are the differences in the programs of these censuses?
What are the differences in the wording of age questions?
Point out the differences in the way questions about marital status are asked.
What are and what caused the differences in the formulation of questions about the occupation of the population in these censuses?
How else do census forms differ from each other?
Are there any clues in the 2002 census questionnaire? If so, in what questions and what content (complete, incomplete)?
Complete the 2002 Census Form with information about yourself and other members of your household as of the critical time (see Appendix 1). The critical moment is set at the direction of the teacher.
Classify the response forms for the 2002 census questionnaire (see Appendix 1). The classification results are presented in the following table:
Answer form | Question number of the census questionnaire to which the answers are given in the appropriate form |
|
Verbal |
census of post offices;
census of commercial establishments;
census of scientific institutions;
census of commercial banks;
census of hospitals, clinics and other health care institutions;
school census;
survey of organizations on the composition of labor costs.
farming;
dwelling house (for housing census);
library;
joint venture.
surveys of an industrial firm to study labor turnover;
surveys of the work of urban transport in order to study the role of its various types in the transport of passengers;
surveys of university students in order to study the time budget.
kindergartens;
firms producing baby food;
gas stations; hotel complex in the region.
the number of employees in the firm;
the size of the family;
family ties of family members;
gender and age of the person?
object and unit of observation;
signs subject to registration;
type and method of observation;
develop a form and write short instructions for filling it out;
draw up an organizational plan for the survey;
make an observation in your student group and present the results in tabular form.
accounting for foreign exchange transactions of commercial banks;
a sample survey of the budgets of families of pensioners;
accounting of citizens' incomes and sources of their income, which is carried out by tax inspectorates based on the results of a calendar year;
registration of immigrants in order to find out their socio-demographic composition, purpose of entry and country of departure.
surname, name, patronymic - Ivanova Irina Petrovna;
gender - male;
age - 5 years;
is currently married - yes;
Russian nationality;
native language - Russian;
education - specialized secondary;
place of work - kindergarten;
occupation at this place of work is a nurse.
surname, name, patronymic - Petrov Sergey Ivanovich;
gender - male;
age - 50 years old, born in the 4th month of 1925;
is currently married - no;
nationality Russian;
education - secondary;
place of work - outerwear atelier;
occupation at this place of work - accounting social group - worker.
total children in kindergarten - 133;
including: in older groups - 37, in middle groups - 43, in younger groups - 58;
of the total number of children: boys - 72, girls - 66.
List the questions of the 2002 All-Russian Population Census questionnaire, the answers to which must be given in the form of numbers.
Formulate the definition of the object of observation:
Make a list of the most essential features of the following units of statistical observation:
What are the signs that you should register when conducting:
Formulate the object, unit and purpose of observation and develop a survey program:
Formulate the questions to be included in the observation form on the following grounds of the objects of observation:
Formulate the questions of the observation program and draw up a model of the statistical form, as well as short instructions for filling it out to study the dependence of academic performance on gender, age, marital status, living conditions and social activity of a university student when conducting a special statistical survey as of February 1, 2010 Specify What kind of observation belongs to in terms of time, coverage and method of obtaining data.
Trading company "Party" instructs you to develop a questionnaire survey of buyers in order to study the contingent visiting the company, to meet their demand and time spent on purchasing the necessary audio and video equipment. Indicate what kind of observation this observation belongs to in terms of time, coverage and method of obtaining the data.
In order to study the opinions of students about the organization of the educational process of the university in which you study, it is necessary to conduct a special survey. It is required to define:
Define the object and unit of observation for a one-time survey of public library readers. Develop a program and form for this survey.
Develop a program and form for a one-time survey of the living conditions of university students in your city as of 01.01.2009, as well as an organizational plan for this observation.
Make layouts of statistical observation forms in accordance with the programs you developed in task 2.8.
In 1994, the Goskomstat of Russia conducted a microcensus of the population of the Russian Federation. What kind of observation is this survey related to?
In 2008, the Goskomstat of Russia conducted (through its bodies) a one-time survey of organizations on the composition of labor costs. What kind of statistical observation by the characteristic of time is this survey related to?
A batch of goods arrived at the wholesale trading base. To check its quality, a tenth of the batch was randomly selected, and through a thorough examination of each unit of the product, its quality was determined and recorded. To what type of observation (and by what criteria) can this inspection of a consignment of goods be attributed?
Statistical observation is performed. The answers to the questions of the observation form are recorded on the basis of documents containing the relevant information. What is the name of this kind of observation?
The editorial board of the journal, wishing to find out the opinion of readers about the journal and their wishes for its improvement, sent out a questionnaire with a request to answer the questions contained in it and return it to the editorial board. What is the name of such an observation in statistics?
During the 2002 census, the answers to the census questionnaire were recorded on the basis of the responses of the respondents. What is the name of this kind of observation? What is the name of the census worker who interviews the population and completes the questionnaire?
During the 2002 All-Russian Population Census, census enumerators visited each family and recorded in the census forms each individual member of the family and his answers to the questions of the census form. What is the name of this method of observation?
It is planned to conduct a census of livestock in households. What method and type of observation (by source) would you prefer for this census? Motivate your choice.
It is necessary to conduct a one-time survey of the use of equipment in textile factories. Which way, as you know, should the statistical office conduct this survey? Motivate your choice.
Determine the place, time and authorities for conducting statistical observations:
Using logical controls, check the following answers to the census questionnaire questions:
What questions are most likely to have erroneous entries? Can any of them be fixed?
In one of the census forms of the population census, which had a critical moment at 0 o'clock from 08 to 09 October 2002, the following entries were made:
Indicate which of the answers do not agree with each other.
Check using the counting (arithmetic) control the following data obtained from the statistical reporting on the work of the kindergarten:
If you find a discrepancy between some of the numbers, do you consider sufficient grounds for making the appropriate amendment?
Check the following data on the revenue from the service of the population by the communication enterprises of the city district and give the most likely explanation for the discrepancy between the numbers that you found (thousand rubles):
Total revenue | |||
Including from: | |||
sales of envelopes, stamps, postcards and other types of goods | |||
subscriptions to periodicals | |||
sales of newspapers and magazines | |||
to family number 1 - October 11. A man died in this family on October 10. What the counter should do:
not to enter information about the deceased in the census form;
enter with a note of death;
enter without a mark of death;
in family number 2 - October 15 and got to the wedding. Two hours ago, the newlyweds returned from the registry office after registering their marriage (they had not been married before). What should the meter write down in response to the question: "Are you currently married" about each of the spouses - is it or is it not?
to family number 3 - October 16. A child was born in the family on October 14. What the meter should do about this child:
enter into the census form;
do not enter in the census form;
to family number 4 - also on October 16. One of the family members, when asked: "Is he married at the present time," answered that he was not, and showed the clerk a divorce certificate, which indicated that the marriage was dissolved on the first day of the census, October 9. Despite the respondent's objections, the enumerator registered him as married. Did the counter do the right thing?
The population census was carried out in the period from 9 to 16 October 2002. The critical moment was 0:00 am from 08 to 09 October.
The counter came:
The city department of state statistics received from the enterprise the "Report of the industrial enterprise on the implementation of the labor plan" for the II quarter of this year. All the necessary information about the implementation of the labor plan is in it, but there are no signatures of the relevant officials. Can this report be sent for development or not?
Etc. Informatics: Workshopon technology of work on the computer. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2005.-256 p .: ill ... in a general educational institution Network educational program " Workshopon Good-natured. " Content... Youth Participation Charter ...
Workshop on the discipline of Internet technologies for business
Dissertation abstract... Workshopon discipline "Internet technologies for business" - M. Moscow State University of Economics, statistics... Moscow State University of Economics, statistics and informatics, 2003 Content Introduction 4 1. Practice ...
Workshop on simultaneous translation from Russian into English (with
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Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation
Volgograd State Technical University
"Marketing, management and organization of production"
Semester work on statistics on the topic:
"Plan of statistical observation
and census data "
Performed
student of group E-356
Aparina N.L.
Checked
Konina O.V.
Volgograd - 2003
Introduction 3
1. Programmatic and methodological issues of statistical
observations 5
2. Organizational issues of statistical observation 9
3. The main organizational forms, types and methods
statistical observation 11
4. Accuracy of observation 21
Conclusion 24 List of used literature 26
Appendix 1 27
Introduction
Statistical observation is the initial stage of economic and statistical research. It is a scientifically organized work to collect massive primary data on the phenomena and processes of social life.
The importance of this stage of research is determined by the fact that the use of only objective and sufficiently complete information obtained as a result of statistical observation at subsequent stages of research is able to provide scientifically substantiated conclusions about the nature and patterns of development of the object under study.
Any statistical observation is carried out by evaluating and registering the characteristics of units of the studied population in the relevant accounting documents. Thus, the data obtained are facts that, in one way or another, characterize the phenomena of social life. As a result of statistical processing, the evidentiary power of the facts increases even more, which ensures their systematization and presentation in a concise form.
Statistical observation must meet the following requirements:
1. Observed phenomena must have scientific or practical value, express certain socio-historical types of phenomena.
2. Direct collection of mass data should ensure the completeness of the facts related to the issue under consideration, since the phenomena are in constant change and development. In the absence of complete data, analysis and conclusions may be erroneous.
3. To ensure the reliability of statistical data, a thorough and comprehensive check (control) of the quality of the collected facts is necessary, which is one of the most important characteristics of statistical observation.
4. The scientific organization of statistical observation is necessary in order to create the best conditions for obtaining objective materials. In turn, observation should be carried out according to previously developed systems, a plan, a program that provide a scientific solution to the program-methodological and organizational issues of observation.
Statistical observation can be carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic, economic services of banks, stock exchanges, firms.
1. Program and methodological issues of statistical observation
When preparing for statistical observation, a number of questions arise that require their solution. They are reflected in the organizational plan of statistical observation, which contains two groups of questions: programmatic - methodological, organizational.
The first group includes issues related to the definition of the purpose, object and unit of observation, the design of forms and text of instructions, the establishment of sources and methods of data collection.
The second group meets questions about the observation body, the timing and place of the observation, the compilation of preliminary lists of units of the studied statistical population, the placement and training of personnel, etc.
Each statistical observation is carried out for a specific purpose. When organizing observation, its tasks must be correctly defined and clearly formulated.
Objective of observation is the main result of statistical research. A clear statement of the purpose of the observation is necessary in order to avoid the collection of unnecessary and incomplete data.
When organizing observation, it is important to determine exactly what is to be examined, in other words, to establish the object of observation.
Under the object of observation a certain statistical aggregate is understood in which the investigated socio-economic phenomena and processes take place. The object of observation can be a set of individuals (the population of a particular region, country; persons employed at the enterprises of the industry), physical units (machines, machines, houses), legal entities (enterprises, farms, commercial banks, educational institutions).
To determine the object of statistical observation, it is necessary to establish the boundaries of the studied population. To do this, you should indicate the most important features that distinguish it from other similar objects. For example, before conducting a survey of the profitability of industrial enterprises, it is necessary to determine the forms of ownership, organizational and legal forms of enterprises, industries and regions to be monitored.
Any object of statistical observation consists of separate elements - observation units.
In statistics unit of observation(in the foreign literature, the term "elementary unit" is used) is called a constituent element of an object, which is a carrier of features to be registered.
The observation unit should be distinguished from the reporting unit.
Reporting unit the subject acts from which data on the observation unit is received. So, when organizing statistical observation in capital construction, information can be obtained from design or contracting organizations or from developer enterprises.
The observation unit and the reporting unit can be the same. For example, if it is necessary to determine the volume of capital investments mastered over the year, then the developer company will be both a unit of observation and a reporting organization. However, when studying the process of concentration of capital investments, the reporting unit will still be the developer, and the unit of observation will be the construction sites and facilities that are being built by this developer.
The main question of statistical observation is its program.
Every phenomenon has many different characteristics. Collecting information on all grounds is impractical, and often impossible. Therefore, it is necessary to select those features that are essential, basic for the characteristics of the object based on the purpose of the study. On the day of determining the composition of the registered signs, a monitoring program is developed.
Observation program is a list of signs (or questions) to be recorded during the observation process. The quality of the collected information largely depends on how well the program of statistical observation is developed.
In order to draw up a correct observation program, the researcher must clearly understand the tasks of examining a specific phenomenon or process, determine the composition of the methods used in the analysis, the necessary groupings and, on the basis of this, identify those signs that need to be determined during the work. Usually the program is expressed in the form of questions of the census (questionnaire) form.
The following requirements are imposed on the statistical observation program:
x The program should contain essential features that directly characterize the phenomenon under study, its type, main features, properties. You should not include in the program features that are of secondary importance in relation to the purpose of the survey or the values of which will deliberately be unreliable or absent, for example, in the presentation of such information, which is the subject of trade secrets.
x Program questions must be accurate and unambiguous (otherwise, the answer received may contain incorrect information), and also easy to understand to avoid unnecessary difficulties "when receiving answers.
x When developing a program, you should not only determine
the composition of the questions, but also their sequence. A logical order of research of questions (signs) will help to obtain reliable information about phenomena and processes.
x It is advisable to include monitoring questions in the program to verify and clarify the collected data. Questions in the program are asked in various forms. They can be closed or open. A closed question is an alternative question, that is, one involving the choice of one of two answers: "yes" or "no", or a question with a selective answer, where three or more answers are offered to choose from. For example, the answer to the question "state of marriage" can be one of the following: a) is married; b) never married; c) married; d) widower (widow); e) divorced, divorced. Open-ended questions can be answered in almost countless ways if the question is posed without a given response structure. For example, "What values are most important to you?"
x To ensure uniformity of the information received from each reporting unit (this is important for the subsequent processing of information), the program is drawn up in the form of a document called a statistical form.
Statistical form is a document of a single sample containing the program and the results of observation.
Title and address sections are compulsory elements of the statistical form. The first contains the name of the statistical observation and the observing body, information about who approved this form and when, sometimes its number. The second includes the address of the reporting unit, its subordination.
The form can have different names: report, card, questionnaire, questionnaire, questionnaire, etc.
There are two systems of the statistical form: individual (card) and list.
Individual the form provides for recording on it the answers to the program questions about only one observation unit, list- about several units. So, all forms of statistical reporting are filled in by each enterprise separately, and when conducting a population census, members of each family are recorded in one census form.
In addition to the form, a instruction, determining the procedure for monitoring and filling out the reporting form, questionnaire, questionnaire. Depending on the complexity of the observation program, the instruction is published as a separate brochure or placed on the back of the form. The form and instructions for filling it out constitute the statistical observation toolkit.
2. Organizational issues of statistical observation.
In order to successfully conduct statistical observation, an organizational plan is being developed. This is the main document, which reflects the most important issues of organizing and carrying out the planned events. The organizational plan specifies: observation bodies, the time of the observation, the timing, as well as preparatory work for the observation, including the procedure for recruiting and training personnel necessary for conducting the observation, the procedure for conducting it, receiving and submitting materials, receiving and submitting preliminary and final results, etc. When organizing statistical observation, the question of the place and time of the observation must be resolved, including the choice of the observation season, the setting of the time (period) and the critical moment of observation.
Season (time of year) for observation, one should choose one in which the object under study is in its usual state. For example, the population census in our country is most often carried out in winter, since there is the least movement of the population.
Term (period) of observation Is the time during which statistical forms are filled in, i.e. the time required to conduct a bulk data collection. This period is determined based on the amount of work (the number of registered signs and units in the surveyed population), the number of personnel engaged in collecting information.
Under the critical moment(date) means a specific day of the year, hour of the day, as of which the registration of signs should be carried out for each unit of the studied population. Thus, the critical moment of the microcensus of the population of the Russian Federation in 1994 was 0 hours on the night of February 13-14, 1994. The critical moment is set in order to obtain comparable static data. If it is necessary to analyze the changes in the volume of sales of any currency on the exchange market in the reporting month in comparison with the previous month, then not a critical moment is set, but the time interval for which statistical data should be obtained.
A significant place in the organizational plan of statistical observation belongs to the preparatory work. The most essential stage of the preparatory work is the compilation of a list of reporting units. This list (for example, trade enterprises, public catering enterprises) is necessary both to check the completeness and timeliness of the information received, and to determine the scope of work and calculate the required number of employees for statistical observation.
In order to successfully carry out statistical observation, it is important to prepare statistical tools (various forms, instructions, etc.), reproduce them and supply them to the personnel conducting the observation in a timely manner.
Finally, among the most important preparatory measures is the propaganda of the statistical work carried out by means of the press, radio, television (clarification of the tasks and objectives of the survey). All this contributes to their more successful implementation.
3. The main organizational forms, types and methods of statistical observation
At the stage of preparing the survey, it is necessary to find out how often it will be carried out, whether all units of the population will be surveyed or only part of them, how to obtain information about the object (by telephone interviews, by mail, simple observation, etc.). In other words, it is necessary to determine the forms, methods and types of statistical observation (Table 1).
Table 1.
Forms, types and methods of statistical observation
|
Organizational forms of statistical observation |
Types of statistical observation |
Statistical observation methods |
||
|
By registration time |
By coverage of population units |
|||
|
1. Statistical reporting 2. Specially organized observation 3. Registers |
1. Current or continuous 2. Discontinuous: a) periodic; b) one-time |
1. Solid 2. Discontinuous: a) selective; b) the main array; c) monographic |
1. Direct 2. Documentary a) expeditionary; b) self-registration; c) correspondent; d) questionnaire; e) safe |
|
Forms of statistical observation. In domestic statistics, three organizational forms (types) of statistical observation are used:
ü reporting (enterprises, organizations, institutions, etc.);
ü specially organized statistical observation (censuses, one-time surveys, surveys of a continuous and non-continuous nature);
ü registers.
Statistical reporting. Reporting is the main form of statistical observation, with the help of which statistical bodies receive, within a certain time frame, the necessary data from enterprises, institutions and organizations in the form of legally established reporting documents, certified by the signatures of the persons responsible for their provision and the reliability of the information collected. Thus, reporting is an official document containing statistical information about the work of an enterprise, institution, organization, etc.
Reporting as a form of statistical observation is based on primary accounting and is its generalization. Primary accounting is a registration of various facts, events, made as they occur, usually on a special document called primary accounting document.
For reporting, it is characteristic that, firstly, it is approved by the state statistics authorities. Submission of information on unapproved forms is a violation of reporting discipline. Secondly, it is mandatory (that is, all enterprises, institutions, organizations must provide it within the specified time frame) and legal force, because it is signed by the head of the enterprise (institution, organization), as well as documentary validity, since all data based on primary accounting documents.
The current statistical reporting is divided into standard and specialized. The composition of indicators in standard reporting is the same for enterprises in all sectors of the national economy. In specialized reporting, the composition of indicators changes depending on the characteristics of individual sectors of the economy.
According to the terms of submission, reports are daily, weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual. In addition to annual reporting, all of the listed types represent current reporting.
According to the method of presenting information, reporting is divided into telegraphic, teletype, and postal.
Specially organized statistical observation. Census. A specially organized observation is carried out in order to obtain information that is not in the reporting, or to verify its data. The simplest example of such observation is the census. Russian practical statistics conducts censuses of the population, material resources, perennial plantations, unidentified equipment, construction in progress, equipment, etc.
Census- This is a specially organized observation, repeated, as a rule, at regular intervals, in order to obtain data on the number, composition and state of the object of statistical observation for a number of signs.
The characteristic features of the census are: simultaneous conduct of it over the entire territory, which should be covered by the survey; the unity of the monitoring program; registration of all observation units as of the same critical moment in time. The observation program, techniques and methods of obtaining data, as far as possible, should remain unchanged. This makes it possible to ensure the comparability of the information collected and the summary indicators obtained during the development of census materials. Then it is possible not only to determine the size and composition of the studied population, but also to analyze its quantitative change in the period between two surveys.
Of all the censuses, the population censuses are the best known. The purpose of the latter is to establish the size and distribution of the population over the territory of the country, characteristics of its composition by sex, age, occupation and other indicators. The first general census of the population of Russia was carried out in 1897, and the last in 2002. I will present the basic data obtained as a result of the last population census in Appendix 1.
During the preparation of the general census, to clarify and approbate the program, methodological and organizational issues of observation, a trial census is carried out. For example, such a census was carried out in December 1986. This survey did not cover all, but only five percent of the country's population. The recording of information during the census is always carried out on the basis of his survey (without the requirement to present any documents confirming the correctness of the answer).
Register form of observation. Register observation is a form of continuous statistical observation of long-term processes with a fixed beginning, a stage of development and a fixed end. It is based on the maintenance of a statistical register. The register is a system that constantly monitors the state of the observation unit and evaluates the strength of the impact of various factors on the studied indicators. In the register, each observation unit is characterized by a set of indicators. Some of them remain unchanged during the entire observation period and are recorded once; other indicators, the frequency of change of which is unknown, are updated as they change; the third - represent a dynamic series of indicators with a predetermined update period. All indicators are stored until the complete observation of the unit of the surveyed population.
Organization and maintenance of the register is impossible without solving the following issues:
Ø When to register and exclude population units from the register?
Ø What information should be kept?
Ø From what sources should the data be taken?
Ø How often to update and supplement the information?
In practice, statistics distinguish between population registers and business registers.
Population register- a named and regularly updated list of the country's inhabitants. The observation program is limited by common characteristics such as gender, date and place of birth, date of marriage (these data remain unchanged throughout the observation period) and marital status (variable). As a rule, registers store information only for those variable characteristics, the change in the values of which is documented.
Population registers are maintained for individual regions of the country. When you change your place of residence, information on the observation unit is transferred to the register of the corresponding territory. Due to the fact that the registration rules are rather complicated and the maintenance of the register is expensive, this form of observation is practiced in states with a small number and high culture of the population (mainly European countries).
Register of enterprises includes all types of economic activity and contains the values of the main characteristics for each unit of the observed object for a certain period or point in time. Enterprise registers contain data on the time of creation (registration) of an enterprise, its name and address, telephone number, organizational and legal form, structure, type of economic activity, number of employees (this indicator reflects the size of the enterprise), etc.
In our country, three registers have been developed: industrial enterprises, construction projects and contractors. Their introduction into statistical practice has significantly increased the informational and analytical level of statistics, made it possible to solve a number of economic and statistical problems for which other forms of statistical observation are unsuitable.
Currently, work has been completed to create a single register for all business units. It plays an important role in the implementation of the system of national accounts in statistical practice.
Unified State Register of Enterprises and Organizations of All Forms of Ownership (USRPO) makes it possible to organize continuous observation on a limited range of statistical indicators of enterprises registered on the territory of Russia, allows to obtain continuous series of indicators in the event of changes in the territorial, sectoral and other structures of the aggregate.
The register records data on all enterprises, organizations, institutions and associations, regardless of their form of ownership, including enterprises with foreign investments, banking institutions, public associations and other legal entities.
The information fund of the register contains: first, the subject's register code; secondly, information about the branch, territorial affiliation of the subject, its subordination, type of ownership, organizational form; thirdly, reference information (names of managers, addresses, phone numbers, faxes, etc., information about the founders) and, finally, fourthly, economic indicators. The values of the latter will be entered into the register on the basis of accounting and statistical reports submitted to the regional statistics bodies.
The register contains data on the following indicators: average number of employees; funds allocated for consumption; residual value of fixed assets; balance sheet profit (loss); authorized capital. Since the register is maintained for separate territories, regional statistical services can expand the composition of economic indicators, if necessary.
EDRPO allows you to select and group any set of units according to one or more criteria.
The collection of data on observation units is carried out in the process of their state registration and subsequent accounting.
Methods of statistical observation. Statistical information can be obtained in various ways, the most important of which are direct observation, documentary evidence and interviewing.
Direct is called such an observation in which the recorders themselves, by direct measurement, weighing, counting or checking the work, etc., establish the fact that is subject to registration, and on this basis make entries in the observation form. This method is used to monitor the commissioning of residential buildings.
Survey- This is a way of observation, in which the necessary information is obtained from the words of the respondent. It involves referring to the direct carrier of features to be registered during observation, and is used to obtain information about phenomena and processes that are not amenable to direct direct observation.
In statistics, the following types of surveys are used: oral (expeditionary), self-registration, correspondence, questionnaire and attendance.
At verbal(expeditionary) survey specially trained workers (enumerators, registrars) receive the necessary information on the basis of interviewing the relevant persons and record the answers themselves in the observation form. In terms of the form of conducting an oral survey, it can be direct (as is the case in the population census), when the enumerator meets each respondent “face to face”, and indirectly, for example, by telephone.
At self-registration the forms are filled in by the respondents themselves, and the enumerators give them the forms of the questionnaire, explain the rules for filling them out, and then collect them.
Correspondent way consists in the fact that the information to the bodies conducting the observations is reported by the staff of volunteer correspondents. This type of survey requires the lowest costs, but does not give confidence that the material received is of high quality, since it is not always possible to check the correctness of the answers received directly on the spot.
Questionnaire method involves the collection of information in the form of questionnaires. A certain circle of respondents are given special questionnaires (questionnaires) either in person or by publication in periodicals. Completing these questionnaires is voluntary and usually anonymous. Usually, fewer questionnaires are received back than they are sent out. This method of collecting information is used for non-continuous observation. The questionnaire survey is used in surveys where high accuracy is not required, but approximate, tentative results are needed, for example, when studying public opinion about the work of urban transport, trade enterprises, etc.
Explicit way provides for the submission of information to the monitoring authorities, in secret, for example, when registering marriages, births, divorces, etc.
When choosing the type of this or that survey, it is necessary to take into account: with what precision it is necessary to conduct observations; the possibility of practical application of one or another method; financial opportunities.
Types of statistical observation. Statistical observations can be divided into groups according to the following criteria:
time of registration of facts;
coverage of population units.
By time of registration of facts there is continuous (current), periodic and one-time observation. At the current Observation, changes in relation to the phenomena under study are recorded as they occur, for example, when registering births, deaths, and marital status. Such observation is carried out in order to study the dynamics of a phenomenon.
Object change data can be collected from multiple surveys. They are usually carried out according to a similar program and toolkit and are called periodic. This type of observation includes population censuses, which are carried out every 10 years; registration of producer prices for individual goods, which is currently carried out monthly.
One-time survey provides information about the quantitative characteristics of any phenomenon or process at the time of its study. Re-registration is carried out after some time (not specified in advance) or may not be carried out at all. A one-time survey was an inventory of the unfinished industrial construction
By coverage of population units statistical observation is continuous and discontinuous.
The task continuous observation is to obtain information about all units of the studied population.
Until recently, the Russian system of state statistics relied primarily on continuous observation. However, this type of observation has serious disadvantages: the high cost of obtaining and processing the entire volume of information; high labor costs; insufficient timeliness of information, since it takes a lot of time to collect and process it. And, finally, not a single continuous observation, as a rule, provides complete coverage of all units of the population without exception. More or less number of units necessarily remain out of observation, both when conducting one-time surveys, and in such a form of observation as reporting.
The number and proportion of unreached units depend on many factors: type of survey (by mail, by means of an oral survey); the type of reporting unit; registrar qualifications; the content of the issues envisaged by the monitoring program; time of day or year when the survey is carried out, etc.
Discontinuous observation initially assumes that only a part of the units of the studied population is subject to survey. When conducting it, it should be determined in advance what part of the population should be monitored and how the units to be surveyed should be selected. One of the advantages of discontinuous observations is the ability to obtain information in a shorter time frame and with less resources than with continuous observation.
There are several types of discontinuous observation. One of them - selective observation. This is a fairly common type, based on the principle of random selection of those units of the studied population that should be observed. With the correct organization, selective observation gives sufficiently accurate results that are quite suitable for characterizing the entire studied population. This is the advantage of selective observation in comparison with other types of non-continuous observation.
The size of the sample depends on the nature (character) of the studied socio-economic phenomenon. The sample must represent all types of units available in the target population. Otherwise, the sample population will not accurately reproduce the proportions and dependencies characteristic of the population in its entirety.
A kind of selective observation is moment observation method... Its essence lies in the fact that information is collected by registering the values of the attributes of the units of the sample population at some predetermined points in time. Therefore, the method of instantaneous observations involves the selection of not only units of the studied population (sample in space), but also the moments of time at which the state of the object under study is recorded (sample in time). This type of observation is used when conducting surveys of population income.
The next type of discontinuous observation is main array method. With it, the most significant, usually the largest units of the studied population are examined, which, according to the main (for a particular study), have the largest share in the population. It is this view that is used to organize the monitoring of the work of urban markets.
Monographic survey is a type of non-continuous observation in which individual units of the studied population, usually representatives of any new types of phenomena, are subjected to a thorough examination. It is carried out in order to identify existing or emerging trends in the development of this phenomenon.
A monographic survey, confining itself to individual units of observation, studies them with a high degree of detail, which cannot be achieved with a complete or even sample survey. A detailed statistical and monographic study of one plant, farm, family budget, etc. allows you to catch those proportions and relationships that slip out of sight during mass observations.
4. ACCURACY OF OBSERVATION
Accuracy of statistical observation the degree of correspondence of the value of any indicator (the value of any attribute), determined from the materials of statistical observation, to its actual value is called.
The discrepancy between the calculated and actual values of the studied quantities is called observation error.
Data accuracy is a fundamental requirement for statistical observation. To avoid observation errors, to prevent, identify and correct them, you must:
ò to provide quality training for the personnel who will conduct the observation;
ò to organize special partial or complete control checks of the correctness of filling in statistical forms;
ò to carry out logical and arithmetic control of the received data after the end of the collection of information.
Depending on the causes of occurrence, a distinction is made between errors of registration and errors of representativeness.
Registration errors- these are the deviations between the value of the indicator obtained in the course of statistical observation and its actual, real value. This type of error can occur in both continuous and non-continuous observations.
Registration errors are random and systematic.
Random errors- this is the result of various random factors (for example, numbers are rearranged, adjacent lines or columns are mixed up when filling out a statistical form). Such errors have different directions: they can both increase and decrease the values of indicators. With a sufficiently large surveyed population, as a result of the action of the law of large numbers, these errors are mutually canceled out.
Systematic errors can be intentional or unintentional. Intentional mistakes(conscious, tendentious distortions) are obtained as a result of the fact that the respondent, knowing the actual state of affairs, deliberately reports incorrect data. Unintentional errors caused by various random reasons (for example, negligence or carelessness of the recorder, malfunction of measuring instruments, etc.).
Unlike registration errors, representativeness errors are characteristic only for discontinuous observation. They arise because the selected and surveyed population does not accurately reproduce (represent) the entire initial population as a whole.
The deviation of the value of the indicator of the surveyed population from its value for the original population is called error of representativeness.
Representative errors are also random and systematic.
Random errors occur if the selected population does not fully reproduce the entire population as a whole. Its magnitude can be estimated.
Representative bias occurs as a result of violation of the principles of selection of units from the original population, which should be subjected to observation.
After receiving the statistical forms, the first step is to check the completeness of the collected data, that is, to determine whether all reporting units have completed the statistical forms, and whether the values of all indicators are reflected in them. The next stage of information accuracy control is arithmetic control. It is based on the use of quantitative relationships between the values of various indicators.
Counting control consists in checking the accuracy of arithmetic calculations used in reporting or filling out survey forms.
Logical control consists in checking the answers to the questions of the observation program by means of their logical interpretation or by comparing the obtained data with other sources on the same question.
The indicated methods of checking statistical data by means of counting and logical control can be used when checking both materials of special statistical observations and reporting.
Conclusion
So, the process of conducting statistical observation includes the following stages:
ü preparation of observation;
ü carrying out mass data collection;
ü data preparation for automated processing;
ü development of proposals for improving statistical observation.
Any statistical observation requires careful, thoughtful preparation. Reliability and reliability of information, timeliness of its receipt will largely depend on it.
Preparation of statistical observation is a process that includes different types of work. First, it is necessary to solve methodological issues, the most important of which are the definition of the purpose and object of observation, the composition of the signs to be registered; development of documents for data collection; selection of the reporting unit and the unit in relation to which the observation will be carried out, as well as the methods and means of obtaining the data.
In addition to methodological problems, it is necessary to solve organizational problems, for example, to determine the composition of the services conducting the observation; select and prepare personnel for the observation; draw up a timetable for the preparation, conduct and processing of observation materials; replicate documents for data collection.
Conducting mass data collection includes work directly related to filling out statistical forms. It begins with the distribution of questionnaires, questionnaires, forms, statistical reporting forms and ends with their submission after filling out to the authorities conducting the observation.
The collected data at the stage of their preparation for automated processing is subjected to arithmetic and logical control. Both of these controls are based on knowledge of the relationship between indicators and quality characteristics.
At the final stage of the observation, the reasons that led to the incorrect filling of the statistical forms are analyzed, and proposals for improving the observation are developed. This is very important for organizing future surveys.
Obtaining information in the course of statistical observation requires considerable expenditure of financial and labor resources, as well as time.
List of used literature:
General theory of statistics: Statistical methodology in the study of commercial activities: Textbook / Ed. O.E. Bashina, A.A. Spirina. - 5th ed., Add. and revised - M .: Finance and statistics, 2000. –440 p.
The theory of statistics: Textbook / Ed. prof. R.A. Shmoilova. - 3rd ed., Rev. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2002. - 560s.
The main results of the 2002 All-Russian Population Census
Task 2.1
Formulate the definition of the object of observation:
a) a census of the city's housing stock;
b) census of scientific institutions;
c) census of manufacturing enterprises.
Task 2.2
List the most essential features of the following units of statistical observation:
a) store;
c) theater;
d) processing enterprise.
Task 2.3
What would you outline the signs that should be registered during the conduct:
a) surveys of urban transport operations in order to explore ways to improve passenger transport;
b) a survey of manufacturing enterprises in order to study the shift in the operation of equipment.
Task 2.4
Conduct a logical control of the correctness of filling in the detachable coupon for the withdrawal sheet by the migrant:
Target 2.5
Conduct a logical control of the data (Table 2.3) on the release of finished products and semi-finished products by enterprises of the production unit in the reporting period and make corrections:
Table 2.3 - Initial data
Task 2.6
Using logical controls, check the answers to the questions of the population census questionnaire:
a) surname, name, patronymic - Petrova Elena Ivanovna;
b) gender - male;
c) age - 6 years;
d) is married - yes;
e) nationality - Belarusian;
f) native language - Russian;
g) education - higher;
h) place of work - technical school;
i) lesson at the place of work - teacher.
What answers are most likely to have errors and how to fix them?
Task 2.7
Check the correctness of the data (Table 2.4) of the column (column) and the totals in the reporting of the commercial enterprise for the quarter, in thousands of currency units.
Table 2.4 - Indicators of reporting of a trading enterprise for the quarter
Control questions
- What is the essence of statistical observation and how does it differ from other types of observations?
- What are the requirements for statistical observation?
- Software and methodological issues of ensuring statistical observation.
- The purpose and objectives of statistical observation.
- Object and qualification of statistical observation.
- What is a statistical observation program.
- What are the most important principles and rules for conducting statistical observation?
- What questions are reflected in the organizational plan of statistical observation?
- Forms of statistical observation and their essence.
- Varieties of statistical observation and their essence.
- What are called statistical observation errors?
- What two groups are the errors of statistical observation divided into?
- Reasons for registration errors. Types of registration errors.
- Causes of Representative Errors.
- What types of control over the results of statistical observation are used by statistical authorities?
- What is the essence of logical control?
- What is the essence of arithmetic control?
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