Vladimir YANKELEVICH.

"The fact that nails grow back does not mean that they do not need to be cut."

The saying of the Israeli special services.

Of course, you need to cut your nails. But here's the problem, they grow, for example, in Iran, but you need to cut, for example, from Gush Dan or from an office overlooking the Potomac. But in the courtyard there is the XXI century, the century of telecommunications, and nothing is impossible in this. This is called the unpleasant word "Cyberwar", in contrast to previous wars, this war is going on in cyberspace, but this does not make it less acute and dangerous.

Actually, penetration into closed computer networks is nothing new, a phenomenon a little younger than the Internet in age. For hackers, infiltrating websites was a game of sorts. They did this to cheat or improve their financial situation, but the term "Cyberwar" appeared only in 2007, when the Estonian government and the US Department of Defense were attacked by hacker attacks. That is, the purpose of the attacks was not a desire to penetrate the banking system and transfer a round sum to your account, not to show yourself cooler than all certified specialists, but to strike a blow at the state system, its information and communication networks, to create disruptions in information transmission and processing systems, in control systems. Since then, hackers have been the object of close attention of the special services, and everything mentioned, you see, is already a war.

CYBER ATTACK POTENTIAL ON IRAN EXCEEDS CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS

Although this war is going on in the quiet of offices under the quiet noise of air conditioners, for the object of the attack it can result in consequences more serious than a missile strike. On July 5, the chief of Israel's military intelligence, Major General Aviv Kohavi, said something like this at a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Commission. He noted that the potential of a computer war against the Iranian nuclear program exceeds the potential of conventional air and missile strikes.

In Israel, this work began a long time ago, in the late nineties, we can say that it was somehow unplanned. Shabak ((Shin-bet) abbreviation Sherut Bitakhon Klali), Israel's General Security Service was engaged in routine security checks on a strategically important facility - a large fuel depot near Tel Aviv. A computer specialist from SHABAK entered the warehouse manager's computer and suddenly found that he had not only gained access to classified data, but could also set off explosions by simply reprogramming the operation of the pipelines. This episode gave an impetus to understanding the potential of cyberattacks, which provides a path for serious sabotage. This is how the history of Israeli military cyber programs began. The American Cyberstrategy 3 was born later.

But is this theory or is it really happening, so to speak, on the ground? American analysts argue that there is nowhere more real, the number of cyberattacks on US government organizations from 2005 to 2010 has tripled. Only for the period from 2008-2010. seven major cyberattack incidents were recorded. This caused failures in the ACS of power-electric networks, control of power plants (including nuclear power plants), ACS of transport navigation and dispatch services. The head of the Pentagon's cyber command, General Alexander, even said at the hearings of the US Armed Forces Committee that cyber weapons have an effect comparable to the use of weapons of mass destruction.

In November 2009, there was a cyber attack on one of the Brazilian hydroelectric power plants, which for three days deprived 60 million residents of a dozen cities of public transport, traffic lights, communications, paralyzed the work of thousands of gas stations, bank branches, enterprises and shopping centers... Isn't it a war?

"TITANIUM RAIN" HEADACHE

Experts believe that the most successful cyberattack (on the websites of NASA, the US Department of Defense, Lockheed Martin, etc.) is the attack called "Titanium Rain" in the FBI documents. Traces of this attack lead to China. For the attack, a program was created that every second scans thousands of computer networks of the military and government agencies... As a result, the networks were hacked and secret documents were copied from the largest US nuclear research center "Sandia", the US Rocket and Space Center - the Redstone Arsenal, as well as NASA computer networks. In 2009, Chinese hackers managed to open the networks of the Lockheed Martin corporation and gain access to the documents of the most promising and expensive project The Pentagon - the F35 fighter, on the development of which has already spent about $ 300 billion.

It should be noted that in China over the past 5 years, the production of microcircuits has more than doubled and exceeded 65 billion pieces. The FBI believes that China has prudently planted in them spyware, which allows them to scan and send by e-mail the computer files of interest. Such cases were recorded in the networks of the US Department of State, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Commerce.

François d'Alençon (La Croix, France) writes: “As for China, it makes no secret of its information warfare missions, which can be found in a white paper on defense policy published in 2006. The Chinese People's Army there is a special unit within the general staff for this purpose. About 20,000 "patriotic hackers" work for the intelligence services of China, the total number of agents of which reaches two million. In order to save money, the People's Army is guided by the doctrine of "asymmetric intimidation", which consists in development " sabotage "capabilities based on the most modern technologies."

In addition, the FBI claims that al-Qaeda was also involved in the cyber war, its hackers tried to gain access to the control system for the operation of dams on several US reservoirs and, in addition, have already carried out several cyberattacks against Israeli government institutions.

On July 5, computer security company McAfee published its Ten Days of Rain survey of attacks on US and South Korean military sites that triggered so-called "denial of service" attacks. According to McAfee, the attack has clear anti-Korean and anti-American motives. According to McAfee, the attack is technically sophisticated, but has very limited effect, which gives reason to consider it a test of the reaction of the attackers in order to determine the time it takes them to counter.

To organize such attacks, "zombie networks" are used. To create them, cyber terrorists break into thousands of computers in many countries, usually personal ones, whose owners do not even know about it, and with the help of a “bot” malware, they unite them into a network. Due to the fact that a huge number of computers are collected in the network, its computing capabilities are extremely high, an attack from such a Botnet network on a site with a huge number of requests exceeds the site's capabilities, which causes a "denial of service". In such a "zombie network", it is difficult to trace the control center, since the attack is carried out from computers of completely law-abiding users. The South Korean botnet was programmed to work for 10 days and then self-destructed, removing traces of malware from zombie computers so that the source of the attack could not be traced.

McAfee's research showed that the botnet was located virtually all over the world, including Taiwan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India and the United States, making it resistant to dismantling.

In connection with this attack, the Ministry of Defense South Korea announced an increase in the number of its cyber warriors and the opening of a cyber war training school for them.

A similar message was made by Panda Security. According to her, "This quarter was one of the worst in history", the victims were many, from the International Monetary Fund and the US Department of Defense, to Sony corporations, SEGA and Citigroup. Panda Security found that 42 new strains of malware were created on average every minute in the past quarter.

In such a situation, cyber attacks can only be resisted by organizing countermeasures at the state level. About thirty countries besides the United States, including England, France, India, post-Soviet countries (Estonia, Latvia, Armenia, etc.), have announced the creation of their own cyber divisions.

But counteraction is counteraction, and while William Lin, US Undersecretary of Defense, was recently forced to admit that 24,000 computer files were stolen from a company that worked for the Pentagon a few months ago. Lin did not blame a specific special service, but it is not difficult to assume the authorship of this attack, China is leading in this field. He promised to respond appropriately, but it will be tomorrow (if at all).

What to do, gentlemen, new times - new wars.

FIRST, WE HAVE NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND SECONDLY, IF WE NEED IT, WE WILL APPLY IT. GOLDA MEIR

And what about Israel? American expert Scott Borg, in particular, said that "Judging by my contacts with Israeli experts at various international forums, Israel today definitely has advanced capabilities for cyberattacks."

Israel's cyber units are highly classified and covered by a caesura. Considering that Israel is one of the world leaders in high-tech, we can reasonably believe that the activities of these units are quite successful. It is clear that the primary task of this online army is defense, and offensive operations are usually not advertised, but they certainly are. It is unlikely that in the near future we will be able to find out from official documents how these operations are carried out, but some information from journalistic investigations is already available. The most famous is the successful operation " Orchard»On the destruction of a nuclear facility in Syria. According to Spiegel magazine, the operation began in 2006 with the penetration into the computer of a Syrian official connected with the nuclear program. From his computer, it was possible to obtain not only data about the facility under construction, but even photographs of Chon Chibu, one of the leaders, posing against the background of the facility under construction. nuclear projects North Korea and Ibrahim Othman, who headed the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission. In addition, according to Spiegel, Israeli specialists managed to inject spyware into this computer, thanks to which all classified documents from this computer began to flow directly to the Mossad. Thanks to the information received, on the night of September 5-6, 2007, this object, which threatens the security of Israel, was gone.

Then events developed like this: Bashar al-Assad began to prepare a retaliation operation, which was entrusted to the experienced terrorist Imad Mignya, on whose conscience hundreds of victims. He was known, among other things, as the organizer of the terrorist attacks against the American barracks in Beirut in the 1980s, against the Jewish center in Buenos Aires, but somehow he survived. Mignya, as a retaliation operation, planned attacks against Israeli embassies, but his SUV suddenly took off, putting an end to his career.

General Mohammed Suleiman was appointed the chief overseer of the retaliation operations against Israel. He was a personal friend of Bashar al-Assad and his closest adviser on matters national security, was responsible for the relations of the Syrian army with Hezbollah and worked directly with Imad Migniyya. His nickname was "Shadow Man". Among other things, he was also one of the most protected people in Syria, but in a villa in Tartus, on the beach with the romantic name "Golden Sand", he joined Migniye, and now he knows for sure everything about 30 virgins of the Muslim paradise. General Suleiman was shot in the head from a passing yacht. Such a shot from a yacht swaying on the waves demanded considerable skill from the sniper. The operation was brilliantly planned and carried out, and Assad understood the subtle hint and stopped trying to somehow take revenge. What is the role of cyber units in these operations can only be assumed, but they certainly could not do without.

And already in 2010, the New York Times published information that the Israeli cyber division provided the blocking of the Syrian air defense during Operation Orchard using the military computer program Suter. This program allows attacks on computer networks and air defense communication systems. According to the Americans, without this, the evasion of Syrian radars would be problematic, since the Israeli F-15 and F-16 are not equipped with stealth technology.

There are more examples. So in 2008, Iranian businessman Ali Ashtari was executed, accused of supplying "contaminated" communication equipment for one of Iran's military projects in the interests of Israel. Iranian media reported that Ashtari's actions "led to the collapse of the entire project with irreversible damage." Most likely Ashtari did not know about the "contamination" of the equipment, but it did not help him.

There were no official comments from Israel regarding these publications, but as Golda Meir said, “Firstly, we have nuclear weapons no, and secondly, if necessary, we will apply it. "

The importance of cyberattacks today has especially increased, primarily because an air strike to eliminate Iran's nuclear program in Israel is no longer considered today, and the main ally, the United States, does not seem to want to get involved in a military confrontation with Iran, they still need to unleash with Iraq and Afghanistan. Therefore, most likely, the "direction of the main strike" in the fight against his nuclear ambitions will be the computer networks of the Ayatollah regime. What are the specific possibilities of the "small war" in the fight against Iran's nuclear program is still a mystery.

The smell of war

In the digital era, geopolitics and diplomacy based on the borders of states and their protection are facing serious problems. Cyberspace is a world where there are no borders, there are powerful information flows, border guards and customs officers will not help along this path, and therefore the United States and NATO are adopting a resolution according to which a cyberattack is considered an opening of hostilities, just as with the use of conventional weapons.

We must state that today the traditional division into the army, air force, navy and space troops obsolete and cyberspace is becoming another war zone. Despite the veil of secrecy, it is clear that cyber warfare in the 21st century will become more and more significant. Unlike conventional weapons, cyberattacks are incomparably cheaper, and in terms of effectiveness they are often superior to conventional weapons, and it is often very difficult to understand who the attacking side is.

Never before had the smell of a new type of war been felt so strongly.

What did the "Great Prophet" tell us?

Alexander Voronel wrote: "The peace that is possible in our region is a peace based on military balance, and not on the absence of conflicting interests." This is not pessimism, not optimism - this is realism.

What have we heard from the "prophet" called "Great Prophet-6", the military teachings of the guards of the Islamic Revolution. The commander of the rocket and space forces, General Amir Hajizadeh, acted as the mouthpiece of the prophet. He said that during the exercise, two Shihab-3 missiles were launched at a range of 1900 km. This missile has been known for a long time, earlier the range of these missiles was 1300 km, and the missiles were with a liquid-propellant jet engine. The Iranians have made their major modernization, created and successfully tested a solid-propellant rocket engine and significantly reduced the weight of the rocket body, which increased its range and accuracy. But real tests of these missiles at full range, such that would have been confirmed and recognized as reliable in the West, were carried out for the first time. The proven range of the Iranian "Shihab" will allow, if desired, to hit targets, both in Israel and in Europe, not to mention the countries of the Persian Gulf, with which Iran has serious contradictions. Many media outlets came out with the information "The Iranian threat to Israel has been confirmed."

Pessimism is a luxury that Jews cannot afford. (Golda Meir)

Given that Iran is Israel's most ardent enemy, this threat must be taken seriously. Let's try to figure out in what directions work is possible to neutralize Iranian missile threats.

First, it is the consolidation of efforts with countries, like Israel, which are the target of the Iranian threat for coordinated countermeasures. These countries include, first of all, the GCC countries, and the main Arab adversary of Iran in the region is Saudi Arabia. This work is carried out, first of all, within the framework of the regional missile defense system being created by the United States, designed to protect both Israel and the Arab countries, and the Israeli missile defense forces will become it. part of... The head of the US national missile defense agency, Lieutenant General Patrick O'Reilly, told Defense News about this.

Second, it is necessary to continue to improve the Homa missile defense system - Israel's anti-missile shield. This system is also known as the HEZ-2, by its name it is part of the anti-missile. The complex is a joint development of the Israeli company IAI and the American corporation "Lockheed Martin" and is capable of striking missiles in conditions of powerful electronic countermeasures.

Recently, the Hez-3 rocket has successfully passed bench tests, which, according to expert estimates, should become the best in the world. These missiles are classified, but it is known that it is designed to destroy the Syrian Scuds, Iranian Shihabs, Lebanese Fatah-110s with a range of 400 to 2000 km. Moreover, the Hets-3 already in flight, if necessary, will be able to switch from one target to another.

The Israeli Defense Ministry has developed a plan to create a four-level missile defense system, the implementation of which will make Israel practically the most protected state in the world from any missile attacks.

Thirdly, it is necessary to prepare forces and means for an adequate retaliatory strike. To do this, Israel has its own Jericho ballistic missiles. Jericho 1 can carry a payload of approximately 450 kg. with a range of 500 km. Jericho-2 reaches from 1500 km to 3500 km, depending on the modification, with a payload of about a ton. Jericho 3 is the latest development. It is a three-stage rocket, with a warhead of about one ton and reaching a range of 2,000 to 4,800 km. Some sources estimate its range of up to 6,500 km or more and report the possibility of installing a warhead with multiple warheads.

The availability of only ground-based ballistic missiles is today considered insufficient, they are complemented by sea-based missiles. And it is obvious that this direction in the development of armaments has also not been ignored. The Navy has three state-of-the-art German-built Dolphin-class submarines, two more are under completion, and in May the decision was published to order a sixth submarine from Germany. Each submarine has six 533 mm torpedo tubes designed for firing torpedoes and sub-Harpoon missiles, and four 648 mm. torpedo tubes, which, according to GlobalSecurity.org, can be used to launch nuclear-armed cruise missiles. The presence of submarines with such weapons on board will provide Israel with guarantees of a powerful retaliatory strike in the event of an enemy attack. It should be noted that Israel does not confirm that it has nuclear weapons, but, be that as it may, it is clear that the Israeli Navy is becoming an important part of the country's strategic balance.

Fourth, it is necessary to conduct an active media campaign, explain Israel's policy, win friends and resist the efforts of delegitimizing the country. It is important to convey to the enemy its ability to respond toughly to any attack, so that it becomes clear that a military confrontation with Israel, a war with modern weapons, is too dangerous for these regimes. Only the awareness of this danger can ensure peace in our troubled region.

And, in conclusion, a small digression suggested by Professor Delbrück in the book "History of Wars and Military Art". He writes that the explanation of the fall of Rome by the blows of hordes of barbarians was invented by the Roman generals for self-justification. “Hordes of barbarians” is a very dubious statement, since their military organization did not allow to manage a sufficiently large army, most likely they did not outnumber the Roman troops, but consisted of brave people. TO

By this time in Rome, the prestige of army service had already fallen, and "the Romans forgot how to fight", a quiet life became so attractive to them that only asocial elements agreed to serve in the army, and the barbarians on the battlefield met "Romans" who differed from them only in that that they fought reluctantly. The result of this is known - "On the ruins of the forums of the empire, goats grazed, and the feral shepherds did not know who erected these buildings and for what."

Raphael Defense Systems has unveiled a unique IED detection system. Simple, as everything is ingenious. The drone makes aerial photography of the area, which is stored in the system's memory after computer processing. If any changes in the soil structure have occurred on the ground (the system detects recently moved or loosened soil or displaced stones), then the system will mark this area as dangerous, where a mine is likely to be laid. It takes 10 minutes to identify a dangerous area.

The Iron Dome (Kipat Barzel) anti-missile defense system, which protects the territory from unguided missiles, has become a real hit from the Raphael company in Le Bourget. Kipat Barzel was developed in two years, which is a kind of record for systems of this level.

MANPADS also did not go unnoticed: Israel presented the Star Sky system in Le Bourget - a laser installation that neutralizes terrorist missile attacks on aircraft. The system detects a missile fired from a MANPADS and uses a laser beam to disable its electronic guidance systems. There are no analogues of such a system. And what is interesting is that among the countries interested in the Israeli system was Iran, which probably remembered the times of cooperation with Israel.

Concern "Military Industry" presented the "Refaim" (Ghost) system, containing a video surveillance and aiming system, joining the American M16 assault rifle or the Tavor submachine gun. The system allows you to shoot a disposable video camera that will transmit an image that will be captured during the flight, thereby informing the soldier that he is in a place inaccessible to observation, thus avoiding unnecessary risk. The "Rephaim" system is intended mainly for combat in urban environments.

Concern Israel Aerospace Industries has demonstrated a new multifunctional bomb weighing 114 kg. The bomb can explode in the air, detonate on impact, and, in addition, delayed detonation is provided. The bomb is equipped with a laser guidance system that provides an accuracy of up to one meter, is integrated into the guidance system of GPS systems, which allows it to be used not only against stationary, but also against moving targets.

The Aviation Industry Concern showed friends and enemies a series of missiles, including the Barak-8 air defense system and the Hets-2 and Hets-3 anti-missile defense systems, and the Military Industry Concern showed a surface-to-air missile Delilah, and a missile guidance system designed to engage targets deep behind enemy lines, primarily to destroy missile launchers and radars. So the Iranians, inspired by the teachings of the Great Prophet-6, have something to think about - Hetz-3 is intended specifically for the destruction of ballistic missiles like the Syrian Scud, Iranian Shihab or Lebanese Fatah-110, which have a flight range of 400 to 2000 km ...

There is also something special for tunnel lovers from Gaza. Explosives manufacturing company EMI has developed the second generation of the Emulsion system to deal with them very effectively - liquid components are injected into the ground, each of which is individually explosion-proof, but in the ground they flow into voids - tunnels, turning into explosives. You can sympathize with the tunnels.

Big space of little Israel

Israel surpasses all countries, with the exception of the United States, in the resolution and quality of images received from satellites, and even underground objects cannot be hidden from the eye of an Israeli satellite. Our military can clearly see the Hamas tunnels from Gaza from space. We can say that the Israeli satellite literally sees through the earth!

Within the framework of this message, all the latest developments cannot be listed. But even from the above it is clear that the Israeli military-industrial complex is working to provide the IDF the latest technology and weapons to counter today's threats.

Of course, it would be better not to spend money on weapons, but to build schools, hospitals, but we live in an inverted Orwellian world, where "doublethink" has become the norm. Remember the slogan "War is peace!"? Does this not resemble the aspirations of Hezbollah, Fatah and Hamas? “War” is the plan for coexistence with us, and “peace” is the name for this coexistence for the cosponsors of the “peace process”. But in the same novel, Orwell also cited another "doublethink" slogan: "Ignorance is power!" It is surprisingly accurate about the present day. Knowledge is characterized by doubt, ignorance (not lack of education, but ignorance as a way of thinking) - no. It is possible that this is precisely why the “neighbors” dream of a “final solution” to the Israeli question, instead of solving their real pressing problems, does not stop. In this Orwellian world, threats to Israel do not disappear, but, as in the past, the availability of modern weapons helps potential adversaries to cool their hot heads.

© East News, Xinhua / Shen Hong

Israel has no nuclear weapons, but if necessary, they must be used

A warning: The author does not know about Israel's nuclear potential, about Israel's nuclear weapons, all that can be taken for such statements are his personal assumptions based on the statement attributed to Golda Meir: “Firstly, we have no nuclear weapons, but second, if necessary, we will apply it "

If it seems to you that things are going badly, then you may be misreading the situation, most likely things are much worse.

Murphy's laws of war

On agreement with Iran

Today there is no longer any doubt that the Big Six (5 permanent members of the UN Security Council + Germany) and Iran will not reach a permanent agreement on the nuclear issue within the timeframe they have set for themselves. And it is not clear whether they have been achieved at all.

Iran in November 2013 pledged to sign a permanent agreement by July 20 of this year, completely excluding the military option of developing Iran's nuclear program. The harsh hands of the world community "on the throat" of the Iranian economy immediately weakened, Iran took a breath of air and thought - why hurry?

Probably the considerations were as follows:

The United States and Great Britain guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but reacted somehow sluggishly to the annexation of Crimea.
... The West is stuck in problems with Russia, they have no time for us.
... Russia can frighten the West only by closing the gas tap, and we Iranians can help them with energy problems in Europe.
... Until the hands again "close on the throat" of the Iranian economy, the point of no return will already be passed. In short, it will be too late, like with the DPRK.

Considerations demanded verification. As a test balloon, the Iranian delegation in Vienna made a surprised face and refused to discuss its program for the creation of nuclear delivery vehicles, defiantly ignoring UN Security Council Resolution 1929 of 2010 prohibiting Iran from developing ballistic missiles.

It seemed that, in accordance with Article 25 of the UN Charter on the binding decisions of the Security Council, the sanctions regime would immediately tighten and / or the Big Six would begin to prepare a coercive operation, but the Iranians calculated the situation correctly, nothing happened, except for the words that the negotiations would be difficult.

In the meantime, everything is going according to plan in Iran. They will not discuss the program for the development of ballistic missiles, repurpose the reactor in Arak, which is very necessary for the production of weapons-grade plutonium, and the world can be lulled by the words that Iran has destroyed stocks of highly enriched nuclear materials. At first, these materials were not there, and then they were kind of destroyed. Sleep peacefully earthlings, just like in the days of Aladdin: "Residents of Baghdad, sleep peacefully, they are guarding you, the guards are not asleep!"

First, the prudent Iranians could have hidden nuclear materials, let's not forget what volumes of substance are in question. For those who like to count. one cubic meter uranium weighs 19.04 tons, and the critical mass of a uranium nuclear charge is 40-60 kg. For plutonium, the figures will be as follows: 1 cubic meter of plutonium - 19.25 tons, and the critical mass of the charge - 10-20 kg. It is clear that the reserves required for several bombs are insignificant, and it is quite a feasible task to hide it for Iran. And secondly, one should not forget that a "black market" of nuclear materials has formed in the world, and no one is going to dismantle centrifuges from Iranian factories.

A few words about the Israeli preemptive strike

Much has been said about the fact that Israel is quite capable of destroying Iranian nuclear facilities alone, at least their main part. Experts speculated how many years this Israeli strike would throw Iran back from possession nuclear bomb Some said that for two years, others for three years, but added that this could lead to the Iranians rallying around the Ayatollahs, and that they would have to fight Hezbollah and Hamas ...

At that time, there was a consensus in the world that aggressive Iran was striving for a bomb, that it needed to be stopped, but only now the sanctions had to be given a little more work, but if they did not understand ... then then !!!

Now times are different - "There were worse times, But it was not mean "

The phrase belongs to Nadezhda Khvoshchinskaya, its poetic form belongs to Nekrasov

The gloomy Ahmadinejad was replaced by a smiling Rouhani, and the fact that he is essentially no different from his predecessor, so who cares, now is the time of supposedly hope ...

For Israel, this means that the strike on Iran will not receive support, but will be viewed solely as a disruption to global efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. The strike should have been delivered earlier, but today the efforts of the world community led by the United States have led to the fact that Iran will almost inevitably become the owner of nuclear weapons.

It is time for Israel to admit the obvious fact - Iran is rapidly approaching a military nuclear potential, and the previously existing option of a preemptive Israeli strike is becoming unrealistic.

Living with a nuclear Iran

It is unlikely that Israel does not consider such a possibility as a life with a nuclear Iran, but how Iran's nuclear deterrence policy is seen is not yet clear. Meanwhile, this cannot but worry both the Israelis and the Iranian leadership, they should be interested in what else Israel will think of there.

And there are not so many options, the most important areas are the corresponding cyber defense of Israel, the further development of space reconnaissance and target designation technologies, but not only - it is possible that it makes sense, following the example of India and Pakistan, to declare itself a country with a full-fledged nuclear triad, if any. Certainly.

About cyber defense

“You must know the enemy to be able to defeat him,” said Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu 2,500 years ago. Today he would say, "You must hack into the enemy's computer network and recognize him in order to be able to defeat."

Iran is improving rapidly and has been able to carry out a number of successful cyber attacks. At the world's largest Saudi oil company, Saudi Aramco, an Iranian cyber attack has disabled 30,000 computers. Banks in the United States were attacked; a few earlier burglars managed to gain control over the satellite of the British Ministry of Defense.

Military secrets are an attractive target for attacks. From computers of companies producing special software for monitoring satellites and missiles American army, as a result of the cyber attack, it was possible to steal almost two-thirds of the information available. In 2012 alone, 2,500 significant cyber attacks were carried out against NATO systems.

In general, the consequences of a cyber attack can be comparable to a full-fledged military strike.

"Constant threats have turned Israel into an experimental laboratory, where technology is not only created, but also immediately tested in practice."

Zeev Elkin on cyber defense.

Zeev Elkin is right, Israel has a lot of experience in cyber defense, Israel's knowledge and experience is far ahead of the capabilities of a potential adversary, but the fact is that there is no sufficient security.

On space reconnaissance and target designation

To succeed in combat, you need to keep your intentions hidden from the enemy, and strike where the enemy least expects him and where he is most vulnerable.

British philosopher and strategist Sir Basil Henry Liddell Garth

Information about the intention of a potential enemy for the army and the political leadership is collected by reconnaissance satellites and drones.

In April 2014, the Ofek-10 reconnaissance satellite joined other satellites in orbit: Ofek-5, Ofek-7, Eros A1, EROS B, TecSAR, Ofek-9. Ofek-10 allows you to shoot objects on Earth in dense clouds, fog and at night - to get high quality images regardless of the weather and time of day.

The satellite system allows tracking the situation thousands of kilometers from Israel, including Iran. Division 9900 (UNIT 9900) analyzes the information received. During a conference on the space reconnaissance capabilities of the Institute for Strategic Aerospace Research - Fischer Institute - in 2009, a three-dimensional model of the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz in central Iran was shown, including, but not limited to, its underground structures. This is the job of the 9900 analysts.

They deliver real-time information to all levels of government: political leadership, high military command, down to battalion commanders and even smaller units. Satellite cameras are redirected to the desired monitoring area on request, 9900 analysts can run a 3D simulation program and show what it really looks like.

"In a rapidly changing complex reality, in an era of intertwined operational-tactical strategic change, it is imperative to have a creative mind that seeks to improve the ability of military intelligence, the IDF, and the State of Israel to face the challenges of the hour and many threats."

Chief of Military Intelligence of the IDF Major General Aviv Kohavi

Division 9900 is staffed with specialists with unique visual and analytical capabilities. They can detect even the smallest details beyond the reach of most people. The team includes, among other things, soldiers with "autism spectrum disorder". It turned out that they are distinguished by an amazing memory for detail and a large amount of working memory, which made it possible to use them. strengths for the needs of the IDF and Israeli intelligence. (Working memory is a system in the human brain that allows people to retain a large number of dissimilar information short time to complete the task).

Today, ballistic missiles are guided to a target using GPS, and the accuracy of the strike is determined by the accuracy of the coordinates of the target, and this will be ensured by the UNIT 9900.

Israel, like the United States, is at the forefront of the world in terms of the quality and technology of satellite intelligence and is one of the few states that produces both modern satellites and their rockets to launch them.

On the nuclear triad and active defense

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty assumes that five countries have the right to nuclear weapons, but the nuclear weapons of India and Pakistan, although not very enthusiastic, have become familiar. These countries have long-standing unresolved conflicts, and their nuclear weapons hold back hotheads in their countries. But, in addition, both countries contain China with their nuclear potential. Are they dangerous to the West? It is unlikely that Pakistan will start selling elements of its nuclear programs to countries or terrorist structures wishing to acquire nuclear weapons.

A nuclear Iran directly threatens Israel. Given sufficient data on Iranian nuclear weapons, it may be advisable to declare Israel's nuclear weapons, just as India and Pakistan did in their time. There will be no limit to indignation, Russia will again start talking about a nuclear-free Middle East, there will be a lot of such indignants. And now there are not many of them or what?

Unattainable goals do not need to be set, there is no need to expect a balanced response to Israeli nuclear weapons. This is as ridiculous as waiting for applause for the destruction of reactors in Iraq and Syria, but no one needs applause, the country's security is needed, and indignation and discontent have accompanied Israel since its inception.

All regional opponents, and first of all Iran, should already understand that Israel is a nuclear power. Jerusalem, by declaring its nuclear potential, should allay any doubts about its nuclear potential, leaving Iran without even a shadow of hope that Israel's strategic forces are somehow too vulnerable for a first strike, or too destructive for operational use for military purposes.

It is clear that nuclear deterrence must be combined with active defense.

Active defense, in contrast to passive, consists in striking the enemy himself, and not serving as a target for his strikes. It seeks to win by striking the enemy in a favorable moment, as opposed to passive defense, aimed only at repelling the blow.

Military encyclopedia: [In 18 volumes] / Ed. V.F. Novitsky and others - SPb .: I.D. Sytin, 1911-1915.

Active defense against the Iranian threat is bidirectional. One area is Iran's main adversary, and the other is its satellites, Hezbollah and Hamas.

The core of Israel's active defense against the Iranian threat is the Arrow missile program (Arrow or Hatz), designed to intercept medium and short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. The Arrow-2 missiles used a proximity warhead, striking ballistic missiles without hitting them directly, the Arrow-3 used a kinetic destruction warhead, that is, hitting the missile's warhead - "a needle in a needle".

Arrow-3 is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at ranges from 400 to 2,000 kilometers. Thanks to its maneuverability, the Arrow-3 will be able to switch from one target to another in flight if necessary. And there is such a need. One interceptor missile has a 90% chance of hitting a target. Is this enough? In the event of an attack by missiles with a nuclear warhead, it is not enough. But if three interceptor missiles are launched, then the probability of hitting the target will already be 99.9%, which corresponds to the threat.

If the target was hit by the first missile, then the remaining two can be redirected to other targets, and then their ability to reorient in flight to another target will come in handy. In addition, the "Arrow" is capable of simultaneously intercepting a salvo of more than five incoming missiles in a 30 second interval, as well as distinguishing between warheads and decoys.

Missile attacks from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon must be intercepted by the Iron Dome and David's Sling (Magic Wand) systems.

WITH technical point vision, everything looks good. There is, however, a serious problem. There is no missile defense system that cannot be overcome - 99.9% protection, yet not 100%. An option could be not only strengthening missile defense, but, mainly, clarifying the positions of Israeli nuclear deterrence.

The question remains, what to do if the Iranian leadership is not guided by the usual criteria of rational behavior in world politics? What can be expected from Iran, from its theocratic leadership? Ayatollahs don't prioritize big secret... For example, Ayatollah Khomeini directly named Iran's Islamic obligations as priorities.

It seems appropriate:

Convincing a potential adversary that Israel has drums nuclear forces ready to strike back against enemy targets, unacceptable for the enemy,
... to make it clear to any possible nuclear aggressor that the Arrow defenses always work in tandem with an Israeli nuclear retaliation, that the deployment of the Arrow never precludes, or in no way, makes an Israeli nuclear strike less likely.
... to determine to what extent it is possible and expedient to disclose its nuclear capabilities.

The development of Arrow worried Jordan. This is understandable, to shoot down Iranian missiles so that the contents of the warheads do not fall on the heads of the Israelis does not mean to ensure the same result for the Jordanians. As an option, it is possible to expand the Israeli missile defense system - its umbrella would not be superfluous, and not only for Jordan, but also for Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Americans expressed the idea of ​​a regional missile defense system, but so far the time for such relations has not yet come, although it would be wrong to reject such an idea in principle.

Instead of a conclusion

Iran's FARS News Agency reported on the presentation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Group of a new missile with a multiple warhead containing 30 multiple warheads weighing 17 kg each. each one. According to the agency, only a handful of countries in the world have such a missile. The rocket was examined by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a two-hour excursion in the aerospace salon. According to the Iranian agency, split warheads are capable of deceiving enemy radars and passing through missile defense systems.

It's just a matter of details. A missile with multiple warheads is generally considered to be missiles with individual warheads, which are deployed by an autonomous deployment unit at the starting points of the corresponding ballistic trajectories. And the Iranians do not have this in this rocket. In addition, 17 kg is the weight of a relatively small and simple artillery shell, which does not deceive the enemy's radars and does not break through missile defense systems. For the same purposes, radars and missile defense systems do not work. Such shrapnel can scare Saudi Arabia in the event of an attack on its oil fields and ports. But can this fear help Saudi Arabia to take a more pragmatic stance towards Israel?

How to write "first" or "first" correctly?

Firstly is written with a hyphen.

The spelling of this word obeys the rule of writing adverbs through a hyphen, where it is said that adverbs with the prefix в- (в-) and suffixes -s (-s) are written with a hyphen.

In the above sentences, the first is the introductory word, and the introductory words in the sentence are highlighted with punctuation marks.

Firstly always use a hyphen and it will be correct. Similar words second third and so on, you also need to write with a hyphen. For example - First, find out where these rules come from;.

This adverb includes the prefix in and the suffix ix, and in this combination cannot be written otherwise than firstly, i.e. hyphenated. Now, if it were not an adverb, but a preposition in with a noun, we would write separately, without any hyphen. But already the meaning of this construction would have been completely different. For example: in the first rows sat the members of the jury . There is no need to think about any enumeration here.

But if we need to list something exactly, then all adverbs formed from an ordinal number will be written with a hyphen (and firstly, and secondly, etc.).

Introductory word Firstly is such a part of speech as an adverb. And it is formed from the ordinal number with the help of the prefix in-.

There is a rule that says that adverbs formed from such numbers with the addition of the prefix in- or in- hyphenated.

Words formed from numbers with the prefix in and ending in - they (s), as a rule, are written with a hyphen. For example, firstly, secondly, thirdly, and so on. This is the rule of Russian spelling about hyphenated spelling of adverbs.

The word Firstly spelled correctly with a hyphen and separately.

We apply the rule of the Russian language: adverbs formed from ordinal numbers with the prefix VO ( B) are separated by a hyphen.

And there is one more feature: if the sentence contains firstly, it means that there should be secondly, .

When counting any items, the so-called ordinals... So if adverbs are formed from such numerals using the prefix в- or в-, then they are written with a hyphen.

Therefore the word firstly, it is spelled with a hyphen.

Other examples: second, third

By grammatical rule of the Russian language, all numerals with the prefix in and in are written with a hyphen.

For example: first, sixth, twenties.

The rule is easy enough to remember and not difficult to apply.

It will be correct to write this introductory word through a line, or in another way, through a hyphen. There is simply such a rule in Russian that such adverbs are written with a hyphen. First, second, and so on.

These Words are often used as introductory words in compositions - reasoning and they must be written correctly through a hyphen.



Firstly x, secondly, thirdly, and so on ...

IN spelling dictionary it is written that these are adverbs and such words are written with a hyphen.

Words first second third are adverbs in Russian and they are formed from numerals, therefore they are always written with a hyphen.

In addition, this adverb, like others like it, acts as an introductory word and is necessarily separated by a comma. I will give an example of a sentence: First, this answer is accurate and comprehensive. Secondly, ... .



In the Russian language there is such a simple rule: that all numerals that are formed with the help of such a prefix as in-, in-, and then it is followed by any numeral - they are written strictly with a hyphen. For example:

• tenthly,
• Firstly,
• At sixth,
• third,
• seventh,
• fifth,
• ninth
• eighth,
• second, and
• fourthly. **

• Words first second fifth and others are adverbs. In sentences, as a rule, they are introductory words, which are separated by commas on both sides.

  According to the rules of the Russian language, adverbs formed using ordinal numbers (first, second, tenth, etc.) and the prefix в-, в-, are written with a hyphen.