Definition of the classification of wars and their characteristics. Modern wars and armed conflicts plan

The main features of armed conflicts

Considering the specifics of armed conflicts in the 1990s. - at the beginning of the XXI century, it is necessary to dwell on their general features:

1. Conflicts over the forms and principles of warfare were very different.

2. A significant part of the conflicts were asymmetric, that is, they took place between opponents at different stages of development in technical terms, and therefore the qualitative state of their armed forces.

3. All conflicts developed in a relatively limited area, but with the use of forces and means stationed outside this territory.

4. The role of the initial period of an armed conflict or war has significantly increased.

5. The main role in the initial period of the war, of course, was assigned to long-range precision weapons operating in conjunction with aviation. However, in the future, the main burden of the conduct of hostilities fell on the Ground Forces.

Based on the analysis of the most common features of the conflicts of the late XX - early XXI centuries, one can make the following fundamental conclusions regarding the military-political characteristics of the armed struggle at the present stage and in the foreseeable future.

1. The Armed Forces reaffirm their central role in the conduct of security operations.

The real combat role of paramilitary, paramilitary formations, militias, and internal security forces is significantly less than it was assumed before the outbreak of armed conflicts.

2. The decisive moment for achieving military-political success is the seizure of the strategic initiative in the course of an armed conflict.

Passive conduct of hostilities with the expectation of "exhaling" the enemy's offensive impulse will lead to the loss of controllability of its own grouping and, subsequently, to the loss of the conflict.

3. A feature of the armed struggle of the future will consist in the fact that in the course of the war not only military facilities and troops, but also the country's economy with all its infrastructure, civilian population and territory will be under the enemy's blows. In this regard, there is a need for a highly organized and effective work of the civil defense system, as well as a system of mobilization training and mobilization of the country.

4. Despite the increased role of the forces and assets deployed by the time of the threatened period, the presence of a combat-ready reserve and a system for its mobilization and deployment will play a significant role in the outcome of an armed conflict.

5. Combat actions will be characterized by a combination of mobile operations and positional actions. Reconnaissance and sabotage actions and guerrilla war viewed as part of a "regular" war.

6. The key condition for victory in almost all conflicts will be to undermine the morale of the troops and stimulate fermentation, especially in the officer corps.

7. Of great importance for the outcome of armed conflicts will be the availability of strong tools for conducting information and propaganda work among the troops and population of the enemy.

8. The criteria for military victory in armed conflicts will be different, however, the main importance is still the solution of political problems.

Main feature conflicts of the new historical period will be a redistribution of the role of various spheres in armed confrontation. The course and outcome of the armed struggle as a whole will be determined mainly by confrontation in the aerospace sphere and at sea, and the ground groupings will consolidate the military success achieved and directly ensure the achievement of political goals.

Definition, classification of wars and their characteristics

War- This is a continuation of the policy of the state or a coalition of states, peoples, nations, classes and individual social groups using the means of armed violence to achieve political, economic, military and other goals.

The main goal of the war- defeat in a "contactless" way of the economic potential of any state, at any distance.

Classification of wars:

By scale (depending on the scale of hostilities and the composition of the belligerent states): world; local; regional

By duration: transient and protracted;

By means of destruction:

Using only conventional weapons;

Using nuclear weapons.

By tension:

High intensity of hostilities;

Medium intensity of hostilities;

Low intensity of hostilities.

The corresponding types of wars can be defined as follows:

Local war... A war between two or more states, limited in terms of political goals, in which military operations will be conducted, as a rule, within the borders of opposing states and mainly the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other

Under certain conditions, local wars can develop into a regional or large-scale war.

Regional war... A war involving two or more states (even groups of states) in the region. It is conducted by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons on a territory bounded by the borders of one region with the adjacent waters of the oceans, seas, air and outer space, during which the parties will pursue important military-political goals.

Large scale (world) war... War between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community. It can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war by involving a significant number of states from different regions of the world in them. In a large-scale war, the parties will pursue radical military-political goals. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States.

"Conflict" - The emergence of a conflict situation. Matrimonial. Awareness of the conflict situation by at least one of the participants in social interaction. Valuable. Let your partner speak up. Tips for a successful resolution of the conflict. Crisis periods, Do not hide your feelings. Links to your authority. Sexy.

"Conflicts in Society" - Lewis Coser. Ralph Dahrendorf (b.1929). Sigmund Freud (1856-1939). Middle Ages. History of conflict management. New time. Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778). Erasmus of Rotterdam (c. 1466-1536). Georg Simmel (1858-1918). Disadvantages of understanding conflicts by the beginning of the twentieth century: (Conflictology as a scientific direction).

"Interpersonal conflicts" - No one will ever prove anything in a conflict situation. Type of intrafamilial relationship (harmonious and disharmonious). 7. Speak when your partner is cold. The position "from above" is the bossy, parental, ordering how it should be. Types of conflicts between parent and child. It is then that the rationalist will prove himself, the first to betray the leader.

"Military conflicts" - An armed confrontation between two or more states. Rules: "The cruel face of war." The essence of IHL. Non-international armed conflict. Thank you for the attention. 4. Geneva Convention of August 12, 1949. "On protection civilian population in time of war. "From the definition, highlight the main features of IHL.

"Conflicts at school" - Discussion of the draft decision of the pedagogical council. Pedagogical Council... Conflict at school Ways of getting out of conflict situations. Result per group: 3-4 typical conflict situations that I would like to disassemble. Tasks: Speech by O. Yu Pshenichnaya “Creating information environment teachers ". Agenda:

"International conflicts" - Practical use at the current stage. Description of the project. Reliance on pragmatism and rationality. "Psychology of International Conflict: National Models of Conflict Behavior". Tasks. The relevance of research. Genealogy of research. Behavior is expressive (reflects individuality and has no purpose) and functional (purposeful).

Though modern world is distinguished by sufficient civilization, war between states and within their borders remains one of the main methods of solving political problems. Despite the presence of international organizations and protector states, armed conflicts are not uncommon in African countries and in the East. Some states are in a state of constant sluggish armed confrontation. This nature of modern wars and armed conflicts is increasingly common in states where ethnically heterogeneous populations are forced to live within a common border.

Types of wars depending on the scale of the conflict

Due to globalization, the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts is gradually changing. All members of the military-political or economic bloc can be drawn into an active military conflict. And today there are three of the most high-tech armies. These are the troops of China: a hypothetical active war between the two representatives of this list will automatically be large-scale. This means that it will take place over a large area without forming a united front of confrontation.

The second, fundamentally different type of war is a local armed conflict. It either arises between two or more countries within their borders, or proceeds within the framework of one state. This confrontation involves the armies of states, but not military blocs. It is distinguished by a small number of participants and assumes the presence of a front.

The nature of the fighting

The nature of modern wars and armed conflicts can be briefly represented in the form of pairs: active or sluggish, positional or generalized, interstate or civil, conventional or illegitimate ... An active war is accompanied by maintaining the front or conducting sabotage activities, maintaining constant hostilities.

A slow-moving war is often accompanied by the absence of significant clashes between opposing armies, while sabotage activities or the rare use of remote attack weapons are given priority. Sluggish conflicts are often local and can continue even constantly in the absence of hostilities.

Such a situation is possible in regions with an insufficiently formed statehood, which has neither the legitimate right nor the authority to initiate the conclusion of peace. The result of this confrontation is the emergence of a local "hot" spot, which often requires the presence of a foreign peacekeeping contingent.

Conventional and illegitimate wars

This classification of the nature of modern wars implies their division depending on the observance of human rights and international agreements regarding the use of weapons. For example, conflicts involving terrorist organizations or self-proclaimed states that directly destroy or inflict infrastructural damage to existing countries will be called illegitimate. These are also conflicts with the use of prohibited weapons.

Against the participants in such conflicts, "world arbiters" can form military blocs with the aim of destroying organizations and armies, the tactics of which are contrary to international norms and conventions. However, this does not mean that conventional wars are hotly supported.

Conventional war simply does not violate international rules, and the opposing sides use permitted weapons and provide assistance to the wounded of their adversary. Conventional wars are aimed at preserving the civilized appearance of warfare, which is designed to save the maximum number of human lives.

Precision weapons

Due to the peculiarities of the technical equipment of large armies, priority in the conflicts in which they were involved is given to a global disarming strike. This type of warfare presupposes the comprehensive and simultaneous neutralization of known enemy military targets. The concept assumes the use of high-precision weapons designed to hit only military targets, ensuring maximum protection of the civilian population.

Remote wars

An important feature of the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts is the maximum increase in the distance between opposing armies in order to conduct remote attacks. They should be carried out with the maximum use of ammunition delivery vehicles and the minimum involvement of human resources. Priority is given to the means of warfare that ensure the safety of a soldier in his army. However, as the main military means, those are used that ensure the infliction of maximum damage to the enemy troops. Artillery, navy, aviation, and nuclear weapons should be cited as examples.

The ideological background of wars

In such a broad concept as the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, OBZH as a field of knowledge distinguishes ideological training. This is the name for a system of values ​​and knowledge that is natural for a certain nationality or artificially cultivated. It is aimed either at creation, or fosters the goal of destroying its ideological opponents. A striking example is the direct follower of Christianity - radical Islamism.

In the Middle Ages, Christianity, as a very aggressive religion, led to numerous wars, including with the followers of Islam. The latter were forced to defend their states and wealth during Crusades... At the same time, Islam as a system of knowledge and as a religion was formed against aggressive Christianity. Since then, wars have taken on a character not only as a means of achieving advantages in geopolitics, but also as a measure to protect their value system.

Religious and ideological wars

Strictly speaking, after the formation of various ideologies, power confrontations began to take on a religious character. Such is the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, some of which, as in the inhuman Middle Ages, pursue the goal of seizing territories or wealth under favorable pretexts. Religion as an ideology is a powerful value system that delineates a clear line between people. Then, in the understanding of opponents, the enemy is really an enemy that has no points of contact.

The importance of ideology in modern warfare

Having such an attitude, the soldier is distinguished by greater cruelty, since he understands how far he is from his opponent in understanding even elementary things. It is much easier to fight armed with such convictions, and the effectiveness of an ideologically trained army is much higher. This also means that modern wars often arise not only because of the desire to obtain geopolitical advantages, but also because of national and ideological differences. In psychology, this is called armed with which a soldier can forget about condescension to the vanquished and about international conventions adopted to reduce casualties during wars.

Definition of the aggressor

The main paradox in the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts is the definition of an aggressor. Since, in the context of globalization, many countries are part of economic or political blocs, the warring parties may have a number of allies and indirect opponents. At the same time, one of the most important tasks of an ally is to support a friendly state, regardless of its correctness. This leads to international problems, some of which are provoked by distortions of reality.

Both frankly negative aspects and positive ones can be distorted. Such crises in international relations threaten with war those states that did not participate in an armed confrontation before fulfilling their allied obligations. This is one of the paradoxical features of the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts. The content of the literature on geopolitics directly confirms such conclusions. Examples are easy to find in military conflicts in Syria and Ukraine.

Prospects for the use of nuclear weapons

The hypothetical nature of modern wars and armed conflicts in the Russian Federation presupposes the possible use of nuclear weapons. Their use can be justified by the UN Security Council both in relation to the Russian Federation and against other states. This development of events is possible for the reason that nuclear weapons are highly effective as a means of anticipation and disarmament. In the same way, nuclear weapons like weapons of mass destruction have no shortcomings in terms of long-term harm to the environment. That is, in the case of the use of atomic weapons in a certain territory, the defeat occurs due to the blast wave, but not due to radioactivity.

The nuclear reaction stops immediately after and therefore the territory will not be contaminated with radioactive substances. And unlike local wars, confrontations at the global level are of a different nature. In modern military conflicts, the main approaches are reduced to the maximum protection of the civilian population of the warring parties. This is one of the main pretexts according to which the use of nuclear weapons for the purpose of disarming an illegitimate adversary can be justified in global wars.

Prospects for the use of other weapons of mass destruction

Chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in a global war, as analysts suggest, will not be used. It can be used by the warring parties in the framework of local conflicts. But an armed confrontation on a global scale, in which small states are involved, can also entail the use of chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction by poorly equipped armies.

The armies of the Russian Federation, China and NATO are parties to international conventions and have abandoned chemical and biological weapons. Moreover, the use of such weapons does not fully fit into the concept of a global disarming strike. But within the framework of local wars, and especially in the case of the appearance of terrorist organizations, such an outcome should be expected from non-governmental armies not burdened by international treaties and conventions. The use of chemical or biological weapons harms both armies.

Prevention of hostilities

The best war is the one that failed to take place. Strange, but such utopian ideals are possible under the conditions of constant "saber rattling" of weapons, which is often seen in the policies of Russia, NATO and China. They often conduct demonstration exercises and improve their weapons. And within the framework of identifying the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, the presentation of military means and achievements should be considered in the context of demonstrating their

This tactic allows you to show your army and thereby prevent an active attack by a potentially enemy state. Nuclear weapons are stored for a similar purpose today. It is quite obvious that its stock in the world is excessive, but developed countries contain it in a large number for the purpose of the so-called nuclear deterrence.

This is one of the tactics of preventing hostilities, requiring from the owner of weapons of mass destruction a sound mind and a desire to achieve resolution of conflicts through diplomatic means. This also confirms that modern concept waging war comes down to increasing combat power. This is necessary in order to achieve victory with minimal consequences for your army and your own state. However, this concerns defensive wars, and in the conditions of the civilized world, the predominance in military power is not a sign of aggression - this is one of the tactics for preventing wars.

Introduction

1. Definition and classification of wars and armed conflicts

2. Means of warfare

3. Striking factors of modern weapons

Conclusion

Introduction

As evidenced by the historical analysis of the development of society, the resolution of a complex of contradictions between states or groups of states, in most cases, occurred with the use of force. For five and a half thousand years, about 15 thousand wars and armed conflicts have occurred on Earth. This means that for every past century there is not even one peaceful week on the planet.

Over the past decades, the views of military theorists on the conduct of military conflicts and methods of armed struggle have radically changed. This is largely due to the development of qualitatively new types of weapons, created on the basis of the latest technologies, including high-precision weapons and weapons based on new physical principles, as well as ways to protect troops from their damaging factors.

In modern wars, multimillion-dollar armies can be used, equipped with a large number of the most diverse military equipment and weapons. The types and extent of the use of various weapons, the nature and degree of protection against them will affect the amount and structure of losses of troops in equipment and personnel.

The study of weapons and their damaging properties makes it possible to understand the nature of combat pathology in general and of individual organs and systems in particular, to obtain a quantitative and qualitative characteristic of personnel injuries at military facilities and in military equipment, as well as to determine medical and evacuation measures in relation to the wounded and sick.

1. Definition and classification of wars and armed conflicts

One of the most cruel forms used by society to resolve interstate or intrastate conflicts is military conflict ... Its obligatory characteristic is the use military force, all types of armed confrontation, including large-scale, regional, local wars and armed conflicts.

Armed conflict –Armed confrontation of a limited scale between states (international armed conflict) or opposing parties within the territory of one state (internal armed conflict).

Local war - a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military-political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of opposing states, and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and others).

Regional war - a war involving two or more states of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with adjacent waters and in the air (outer) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals.

Large scale war - a war between coalitions of states or major states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military-political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of states from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States.

The characteristic features of modern military conflicts are:

a) the complex use of military force and forces and means of a non-military nature;

b) the massive use of weapons systems and military equipment based on new physical principles and comparable in effectiveness to nuclear weapons;

c) expanding the scale of the use of troops (forces) and means operating in airspace;

d) strengthening the role of information warfare;

e) reducing the time parameters of preparation for the conduct of hostilities;

f) increasing the efficiency of command and control as a result of the transition from a strictly vertical command and control system to global networked automated command and control systems for troops (forces) and weapons;

g) the creation of a permanent zone of military operations on the territories of the opposing sides.

Among the features of modern military conflicts are:

a) the unpredictability of their occurrence;

b) the presence of a wide range of military-political, economic, strategic and other goals;

c) the growing role of modern highly effective weapons systems, as well as the redistribution of the role of various spheres of armed struggle;

d) early implementation of information warfare measures to achieve political goals without the use of military force, and subsequently - in the interests of forming a favorable reaction of the world community to the use of military force.

Modern military conflicts will be characterized by transience, selectivity and high degree destruction of objects, the speed of maneuver by troops (forces) and fire, the use of various mobile groupings of troops (forces). Mastering the strategic initiative, maintaining stable state and military control, ensuring superiority on land, sea and in the airspace will become decisive factors in achieving the set goals.

Military operations will be characterized by the growing importance of high-precision, electromagnetic, laser, infrasonic weapons, information and control systems, unmanned aerial vehicles and autonomous naval vehicles, guided robotic weapons and military equipment.

Nuclear weapons will remain an important factor in preventing the outbreak of nuclear military conflicts and military conflicts using conventional weapons (large-scale war, regional war).

In the event of a military conflict with the use of conventional means of destruction (large-scale war, regional war), which endangers the very existence of the state, the possession of nuclear weapons can lead to the escalation of such a military conflict into a nuclear military conflict.

MILITARY THOUGHT No. 7/1993, pp. 36-44

Lieutenant generalS. A. BOGDANOV

The REALITIES of today are such that the danger of unleashing a world war has significantly decreased. However, we have witnessed conflicts in Central Europe ( Civil War on the territory of the former Yugoslavia), in the states of Central Asia and the CIS (incessant bloodshed in the Caucasus region); serious disagreements in many subjects Russian Federation; tensions in relations between Ukraine and Russia. The existing contradictions, especially on the basis of territorial claims, can cause conflicts in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. A dangerous knot of contradictions is the Middle and Middle East, and the strengthening of Islamic fundamentalism has a significant impact on the situation in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

V modern conditions any armed conflict can quickly escalate into a large-scale war, which makes the situation in certain regions explosive and the world fragile. In this regard, an urgent need arose to revise the established views on the essence and classification of military conflicts, the reasons for their origin, as well as to find forms and methods for resolving them in early stages development or localization and suppression at later.

Analysis of some approaches to the classification of wars and military conflicts. Works published in the USSR reflecting the views of Soviet military science on the problems of war and the army, define war as a socio-political phenomenon, which is a struggle of states, nations, social groups, waged by means of armed violence. Along with armed struggle, which is the main content of war, economic, diplomatic, ideological, psychological and other forms of struggle are comprehensively used to achieve the set goals. War is multifaceted. She has certain traits and characteristics. With this in mind, four groups of grounds for classification were formed: historical, socio-political, military-technical and large-scale (Fig. 1).

In the first group, the warrior is viewed as a socio-political phenomenon that has its place within the framework of a historical era and affects social progress. In the second group, wars are differentiated by the type of contradictions and, depending on the socio-political orientation and goals of the parties, are defined as just and unjust. The third group reveals the nature of the armed struggle, shows the technical means used in it. In the fourth, the scale of a particular war is determined in terms of time and space, the number and groupings of its participants.

In terms of the scale and composition of the belligerents, wars are subdivided into world and local ones. A world war is understood as a confrontation between states and coalitions of states, covering most of the countries of the world, and a local war is a war that covers only a relatively small number of states and does not go beyond the borders of the region.

Social and political foundations are brought to the fore by the Marxist-Leninist methodology, since only they allow "to understand in the name of what this or that war is being waged, a continuation of the policy of which classes it is." In general, the presented classification of wars provides objective grounds for studying them. It attaches special importance to the principle of a comprehensive approach to the analysis of war as a historical, socio-political phenomenon in its essence, most concentratedly embodied in armed struggle and having not only qualitative, but also quantitative certainty. According to this methodology, the classification of wars is carried out on the basis of the class approach, which involves the assessment of phenomena, events from the point of view of the interests of only one social group of society - the working class.

The purpose of the classification is "to determine the attitude of the Marxist-Leninist parties to wars, develop a policy on the problems of war and peace, and take measures to strengthen the defense capability of the countries of the socialist community." Thus, the very target setting reflects an orientation towards the needs of the communist parties. For conditions when the party was ruling and was the basis of the political system of society, this was obviously a justified necessity. But in the current military-political situation in the world and the socio-political situation in Russia, this approach has outlived its usefulness.

A somewhat different methodological approach to the classification of wars and military conflicts is demonstrated by US military experts and a number of other NATO countries. First of all, they take into account the military-strategic and military-technical aspects. For example, according to the classification existing in the United States, there are four types of modern wars: general nuclear, general conventional, nuclear war and the usual in the theater of war.

Faced in the implementation of a strategy of global domination with conflicts of a lower level than general war, American scientists have developed the concept of military conflicts of varying intensity, which considers the entire spectrum of conflicts - from the most insignificant to global war. Wherein nuclear war and other types of weapons of mass destruction, as well as general war in the theater, are defined by them as a military conflict of high intensity; other wars waged with limited goals are defined as a military conflict of medium intensity. All other promotions(military to psychological) combine into low intensity conflicts.

Morally, wars waged in defense of the interests of the United States or its allies, the "bearers of democracy," are declared just. The main criterion of justice is considered to be the decision to wage war by the legitimate authority, if there are no other means of achieving political goals.

Differentiation and study of military conflicts on the basis of their intensity make it possible to plan the necessary measures, including military ones (with relatively low damage to the participants) in order to respond in a timely manner to conflicts at the inception stage. The disadvantage of the considered approach to the systematization and assessment of conflicts is that it gives only general views about them. At the same time, information about the contradictions that the parties are trying to resolve, about the goals and other characteristics that make up the socio-political signs of war is overlooked, without which the prevention of a conflict or its localization and termination on conditions mutually acceptable for the main participants becomes problematic.

Classification of modern wars. It is based on the use of the methodology developed by the Soviet military science, but with certain clarifications dictated by the changes that have taken place in the country and in the world. At the same time, one should not exclude the positive experience of foreign military scientists. What do we need to keep in mind?

First, with the elimination of the antagonistic contradictions between East and West, which were determined by the difference in socio-economic formations, with the loss of the leading role in society by the Communist Party and the growing role of state governance structures, Russia abandoned the priority of class interests over national interests. The final answer regarding the validity of such an approach must be given by political scientists. But the task of developing a military doctrine and a program of military organizational development, set by the political leadership, requires an urgent solution. Therefore, at this stage, instead of class conflicts, it is proposed to take national interests of Russia. V In this connection, the very purpose of the classification, which should be aimed at: determining the attitude of the state, political and military leadership to possible military conflicts, cannot but be clarified; identification of possible consequences of military conflicts and their compliance with the interests of the state; working out a decision on the role and place of the state in relation to the conflicting parties; search for ways to prevent (suppress) conflicts or determine the goals, scope, forms and methods of participation in conflicts (if necessary); preparation for armed conflicts of the country and the armed forces.

Second, in the study and classification of military conflicts, the most important is the answer to a set of questions: how, against whom, for what reason and for what purpose is the war being waged? How war or conflict relates with national interests of the country? What are the options for conflict management? The importance of these issues in the systematization of military conflicts makes us, first of all, take into account socio-political foundations.

Thirdly, now it is no longer possible to assess the war without taking it into account. legal nature, without consideration with positions of international law (primarily the UN Charter). The legal assessment of the conflict, along with the assessment of the goals of each of the conflicting parties, makes it possible to determine who is the aggressor and who is fighting a fair fight. With the strengthening of the role and impact of international law on interstate relations, the legal foundations should become more and more weighty.

Fourth, it is advisable to merge large-scale and military-technical bases into strategic grounds, since in their essence they determine the strategic nature of a military conflict. At the same time, an important group includes issues related to the assessment of its scale, tension and the means used.

Turning to the experience of the war in the Persian Gulf zone, one cannot but draw attention to the fact that the multinational forces made significant efforts to prevent its escalation. The regulation of the tension or intensity of the conflict was carried out by a complex of political and military means. Among them is the well-known UN Security Council Resolution No. 678, limiting the political goals of the conflict to the liberation of Kuwait, providing for the containment of Israel from entering the war up to the guarantee of its cover by the MNF command from attacks by Iraqi missiles and urgent deliveries for these purposes of the Patriot missile defense system, the cessation of combat actions of the MNF without achieving victory in its former understanding (the complete defeat of the enemy's armed forces, the occupation of his territories, forcing a complete and unconditional surrender This little experience in regulating the intensity of the conflict makes us look for criteria that would characterize the degree of its intensity. In this regard, among them, the following may be of particular interest: the nature of the goals put forward; the forces allocated by the state and resources for the conduct of hostilities; the number of combat clashes for a certain time; the amount of losses, environmental and other types of damage, etc.

In general, forecasting the strategic nature of the conflict will allow, with a certain degree of probability, to give the correct answer to the questions: what methods and means are suitable for managing the conflict, what resources will be required to participate in it, what share of military power must be used to achieve the set goals, etc.

In view of the above, it seems appropriate to classify military conflicts on such grounds as socio-political, legal, strategic(fig. 2).

When assessing the socio-political nature of the conflict, the national interests of states, the contradictions between them, the political goals pursued by the parties are brought to the fore, which makes it possible to determine the attitude towards a military conflict.

The study of the legal nature of the conflict gives grounds to draw a conclusion about the fairness of the goals of each of the parties. and conflict in general.

Assessment of the strategic nature of the conflict in terms of such indicators as the scale, methods of warfare, the means used, tension will give a more complete picture O its possible consequences.

Some approaches to management crisis situation in order to prevent military conflicts. Assessment of the nature of the military conflict according to the considered indicators makes it possible to understand the goals of the parties and the legal nature of the conflict, to what extent it will affect the stability of interstate relations, its socio-economic, political, environmental and other consequences, correlation with the interests of their state, as well as develop recommendations for the military-political leadership (Fig. 3).

The analysis of the causes and development trends of military conflicts carried out on the basis of these assessments makes it possible to assess the ways of their emergence (development) and their management. For this evolution internal state It is advisable, in our opinion, to divide the conflict into phases. The criterion for the transition from one phase to another is the level of aggravation of contradictions.

To assess the state of the conflict in phases, five stages are distinguished with specific properties inherent in each of them (the first is the emergence, the second is the exacerbation of tension, the third is the threatened period, the fourth is the crisis, the fifth is the resolution of the conflict). Note - the stages may not always coincide with its phases, which can be seen from Fig. 3.

The scientific and practical significance of the proposed approach lies in real opportunity make the process of resolving a military conflict manageable at any of the considered stages and take measures to de-escalate it peacefully. The essence of the approach is that the development of the conflict is seen as a consequence of an objective or deliberate aggravation of the military-political and strategic situation, in which the parties begin to prepare for the resolution of the conflicts that have arisen with the use of military force.

Conflict resolution can be achieved by a set of goals, implemented sequentially or in some other order through non-military and military means. and ways. In this case, measures aimed at resolving contradictions by political and diplomatic measures (consultations, using international institutions such as the UN, CSCE, etc.), in combination with other peaceful means of resolving the conflict, make it possible to do without the use of military force.

At the same time, ignoring any peaceful means (for example, economic) will most likely lead to a further complication of the confrontational situation and in subsequent stages of the conflict will acquire the opposite direction (curtailment of programs of long-term agreements, introduction of economic sanctions and economic blockade).

The analysis shows that measures aimed at resolving the conflict by peaceful means mainly cover the first three phases. Military means are used as deterrent measures in the first and second phases of the conflict. The direct preparation and use of the armed forces begins with the third phase. It should be noted that this division is rather arbitrary.

Considering the possibilities for the settlement of the military conflict, in our opinion, it is necessary to take into account the following.

First. The outbreak of war is, in essence, conditioned by the unwillingness or inability of political leaders to eliminate economic, political and social contradictions by peaceful means.

Second. The limited goals of the opposing sides restrain the slide of states to a state of war, leaving the opportunity to resolve the conflict at a lower level.

Third. In an armed conflict of low intensity, territorial claims, national-ethnic, religious and other contradictions, as a rule, are provoked by radical political parties and movements, sometimes with the participation of military leaders of various ranks.

Fourth. The possibility of escalating the conflict is real only if there is a social base for this. In other words, there are deep-seated contradictions in society due to its stratification along socio-economic grounds.

Fifth. Resolution of the conflict using the instruments of international law increasingly reduces the likelihood of a world (primarily nuclear) war.

Naturally, the described methodological approach is not exhaustive; it is advisable to continue the work aimed at creating an expert mathematical model for resolving a military conflict. On its basis, it will be possible to carry out a multivariate assessment of the course and outcome of military conflicts, predict them, and also, taking into account the current situation, prepare the necessary proposals for the state leadership to make a decision.

Volkogonov D.A., Milovidov A.S., Tyushkevich S.A. War and the army. - M .: Military Publishing, 1977 .-- P.79.

A region is a group of neighboring countries, which is either a separate economic and geographical area, or a region of the world that is similar in its national composition and culture, or a region of the same type in terms of its socio-political structure.

Volkogonov D.A., Milovidov A.S., Tyushkevich S.A. War and the army. -P.79.

Tabunov N. D., Bokarev V. A. Marxist-Leninist philosophy and methodological problems of military theory and practice. - Moscow: Military Publishing, 1982 .-- p. 269.

Foreign military review. - 1990. - No. 9. - P.5-7.

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