Scientific significance of the study. Scientific novelty, theoretical and practical significance of the research
The mind shows not only appearance, beauty and goodness of each object, but also provides it with a valid
its use.
Kozma Prutkov
The role of the sciences is auxiliary, they constitute a means for achieving the good.
D. I. Mendeleev
If all science is applied, then soon there will be nothing to apply.
Harmonization of fundamental and applied, theoretical and experimental studies- this is the most urgent problem facing not only science itself, but also society as a whole. A separate scientific work of any genre has the right to claim recognition if it contains elements of novelty and progress. Works in the area natural sciences has always been distinguished by complexity, a combination of theoretical and brought to real application the latest applied developments, i.e. what is now called innovative approach. And in modern conditions, apparently, all the more one cannot afford the luxury of sharing the statement of Honore de Balzac: "A true scientist is a dreamer, and whoever is not, he calls himself a practitioner" * 5
The most balanced opinion seems to be P. L. Chebyshev: "The convergence of theory with practice gives the most beneficial results, and not only practice benefits from this, the spider itself develops under its influence, it opens up new subjects for research or new aspects in subjects."
When talking about scientific significance studies mean the direct impact that the research can and does have on further progress in a certain field of science in a fundamental way, in obtaining qualitatively new knowledge about the object of study, in studying its basic properties.
Applied significance research, understood quite broadly, depends on nature of scientific research and associated with concrete use of results to create a new product useful for use in various fields of human activity in various forms. The applied significance of the dissertation is
- 45 Great thoughts of great people... T. 3. S. 37.
- 46 Word about science... S. 178.
can, in particular, be expressed in the development of new operating principles and the new devices themselves (including those protected by copyright certificates and patents), the formulation of design and technological recommendations, the development of new research methods, new measurement techniques, the creation of the latest methods and algorithms for analytical and numerical calculations (including those reflected in the registration of computer programs in the relevant funds), the use of results in the performance of research work, projects and programs, the implementation of results in training courses, reflection in monographs and textbooks, etc.
We must implement, not fantasize!
Phrase from the movie "The Girl with No Address" (1957)
Let's give the consumer not what he wants, but what he needs!
A. B. Migdal
Let us give specific examples of the wording of the heading of the abstract "Scientific and applied significance".
PhD thesis "Nonlinear oscillatory phenomena in systems containing nonrelativistic electron beams with a virtual cathode in a decelerating field"
The results obtained in the theoretical, numerical and experimental study of broadband chaotic generation indicate that it is promising to create sources of a chaotic microwave signal (low-voltage vircators) of medium and high power levels with a width of 0.5 ... 1.5 octaves and a weak irregularity of the power spectrum. As an active medium in such generators, it is possible to use a nonrelativistic electron beam with a supercritical current, in which a nonstationary virtual cathode is formed. The proposed solutions are protected by patents of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, the solution of the problems posed in the dissertation for basic systems is of fundamental importance for radiophysics and electronics and general theory oscillations and waves in distributed self-oscillatory systems (the questions of the formation and interaction of space-time structures in distributed nonlinear systems of electron-wave nature, demonstrating spatially developed chaos, have been studied).
PhD thesis "Operator description of discrete chaotic processes"
Scientific and applied significance. The dissertation developed analytical method spectral property studies non-self-adjoint linear operator Perron-Frobenius, defining and explaining the dynamics of discrete chaotic models. The results obtained contribute to the development of the theory of linear non-self-adjoint operators, the theory of difference equations, functional analysis, modern theory dynamic systems, methods for modeling chaotic processes. In the applied aspect, the results of the work are of interest for solving problems of statistical radiophysics related to the study of asymptotic spectral-correlation properties of chaotic processes, the development of algorithms for chaotic transmission and information processing, and the construction of specific models of neural activity based on the Rényi mapping.
Candidate's thesis "Features of the impact of microwave and optical radiation on semiconductor devices in the microwave range"
Scientific and applied significance. Based on the proposed microwave scheme for subtracting coherent signals in semiconductor synchronized microwave generators, effective methods controlling the amplitude and phase of the microwave signal of the generator by changing the supply voltage and exposure to optical radiation, as well as highly sensitive methods for measuring the parameters of materials and structures. Based on the developed technique for measuring the thickness of thin conductive layers in the range from 5 nm to 5 μm, a highly sensitive measuring system for monitoring the parameters of metal-semiconductor and metal-dielectric structures using synchronized microwave generators was created. The results of the work were used in the implementation of grants AOZ-3.15-491 and A04-3.15-31 of the Ministry of Education of Russia to support the research work of postgraduate students of higher educational institutions 2003-2004
PhD thesis "Chaos and chaotic synchronization in microwave self-oscillators based on klystron amplifiers with feedback»
Scientific and applied significance. The work includes both theoretical (based on analytical and numerical simulation) and experimental study of the chaotic behavior of distributed microwave systems in physical electronics and radiophysics. Of fundamental importance is the establishment of the fact of the existence of a generalized synchronization regime, the identification of the main mechanisms for the implementation of synchronization and chaos control in such systems. The results of an experimental study were obtained on microwave generators, the main element of which was an industrial klystron amplifier KU-134E, the basic element of television and radio broadcasting systems, satellite and terrestrial communications, radar systems, etc. The chaotic features of the functioning of such devices are established in the context of solving the problems of (hidden) information transmission using chaotic signals, radar based on chaotic signals, radio countermeasures, etc.
Doctoral dissertation "Resonance phenomena in electrodynamic systems with semiconductor structures"
Scientific and applied significance. The results of the theoretical and experimental studies carried out formed the basis for the development of new types of solid-state microwave devices (protected by copyrights and patents) for various purposes with parameters qualitatively superior to similar parameters of known devices - semiconductor amplifiers and microwave generators; a subharmonic-synchronized microwave oscillator based on a Gunn diode; active microwave filters on semiconductor microwave generators operating in synchronization mode; microwave mixer; microstrip microwave device with increased vibration resistance; a magnetic field-controlled microwave speaker on p-bn diodes; resonant absorption devices infrared radiation; electrically controlled low-dimensional microwave resonators; semiconductor microwave devices with controlled magnetic field characteristics; devices for determining the influence of a variable magnetic field on physical characteristics water by the microwave method.
Research Methodology
Introduction:
Description of the subject of research - description of the subject as a functional - identification of a problem for the object
Formation of the ultimate goal through the subject
Finding ways to improve the item (usually by increasing efficiency)
Antecedent Analysis
Problem formulation
Justification of the relevance of the task
Research boundaries
Boundary from the object (list of objects)
Border from subject
About space and time
Brief summary of the main parts of the study.
Brief information about the approbation of the study (reports, speeches at conferences).
Brief information about the implementation.
New scientific results and provisions submitted for defense.
Chapter 1. Background (initial level). Essence of the task.
1.1. Analysis of factors external to the object, internal to the subject, influencing the object and subject of research.
1.2. Analysis of the subject and object for interdependence.
Assessment of the degree of compliance of the existing state of the object with the requirements of the object.
Chapter 2 Selection and justification of research methods.
Selection and development of the elements of the subject research method.
Selection or development of a methodology for researching an object through a subject.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of the object through the subject.
Chapter 3 Substantiation of practical recommendations for improving the object through the subject.
Improvement of the subject of study in the object.
Improving the methods of research of the object and subject.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of an object through an object in an improved state.
Conclusion:
Enumeration scientific results with emphasis on novelty.
contributions to science.
Contributions to practice.
What failed to be done? Suggestions for further improvement.
The total number of publications.
Conclusions on solving the problem posed in the introduction.
1. Description of the scientific research problem (essence, genesis and main aspects of the scientific problem)
2. The relevance of the scientific research problem (the importance of the proposed research on this problem in terms of the formation of new and development of existing areas in this subject area and expanding the possibility of practical application of scientific results)
3. Specific task within the framework of the problem to be solved by the study
4. Scientific novelty of the research (novelty and originality of the proposed statement of the problem and / or methodology of its research)
5. Analysis of the current state of research on the scientific problem of the project (main directions, trends and priorities for the development of research in domestic and world science)
6. Methodological principles applied in the study
7. Proposed methods, techniques, tools and their justification (the possibilities of the methodological tools proposed for use to provide the necessary depth of study of the main aspects of the task)
8. Expected results of scientific research (the presentation form should allow for an examination of the results)
9. The form of presentation of the results of the project (expected specific results are indicated, for example: monograph, series of articles)
10. Potential possibilities of using the research results in solving applied problems (the possible contribution of the planned scientific results to the solution of applied problems is substantiated)
11. The team’s scientific background on the project (the results obtained earlier, developed programs and methods are indicated)
12. Publications most closely related to the proposed project (a list of major publications most closely related to the proposed project over the past five years is provided)
13. The general work plan for the entire duration of the project (the form of presentation should make it possible to assess the degree of implementation of the work plan stated in the project; overall plan work is broken down by year)
PROJECT EXPERTISE
I. EVALUATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC LEVEL OF THE PROJECT
Scientific significance of the expected results of the study
The relevance of the scientific research problem
Complexity of the study
Scientific novelty of the research
The current state of research on the problem of the project - the main areas of research in world science
Correspondence of the project name with the scientific research problem
As already noted, the purpose of the study is to obtain new knowledge for society.
Theoretical significance- this is a sign, the presence of which gives the author the right to use the concept of "for the first time" when characterizing the results obtained by him and the study as a whole. Most often theoretical significance is reduced to the so-called element of novelty. Elements of novelty can be present both in theoretical provisions (regularity, principle, concept, hypothesis, etc.) and in practical results (rules, recommendations, tools, methods, requirements, etc.) and reflects the possible prospects for using the results obtained for further work to solve other problems.
It should be noted that when it comes to coursework or thesis, this requirement remains, but is not so categorical. For these scientific works, the novelty of the results may be subjective, determined not in relation to society, but in relation to the researcher. In this case, the work performed can be a simulation of solutions known in science (society).
When it comes to a Ph.D. thesis, the requirement for obtaining new knowledge for society is mandatory.
What can make up the novelty of a diploma or course research?
1. The study of a phenomenon known to everyone at the level of common sense with the help of special scientific methods and thereby turning it into a scientifically established fact. For example, the phenomenon of Rosa Kuleshova and the experiment of A.N. Leontiev on the formation of nonspecific color sensitivity. The phenomenon of Rosa Kuleshova is that, according to eyewitnesses, she could read printed text with her fingers. A.N.Leontiev decided to test these evidence experimentally.
2. The study of a phenomenon already known in science using new experimental material. In this case, new knowledge is obtained due to the characteristics of the experimental sample of subjects, on which the study of characteristics, for example, ethnic, socio-cultural, professional, age, is carried out.
3. Transition from a qualitative description of the facts known in science to their precisely defined quantitative characteristics.
4.Study of a mental phenomenon known in science by more advanced methods. For example, the transition in measuring the reaction time from one tenth to one hundredth of a second is favorable for obtaining new results.
5. Matching, comparative analysis course of mental processes. For example, involuntary, voluntary attention, memory in normal and mentally ill people, volitional processes in drug addicts and alcoholics.
6. Changed flow conditions mental process. For example, thinking in weightlessness and normal conditions.
1. The theoretical significance of the study "Research education of gifted adolescents" is defined as follows: "The results obtained expand the understanding of the processes of organization educational activities gifted children."
2. Theoretical significance of the study “Features emotional states creative children” is defined as follows:
The theoretical significance of the study is as follows:
Correspondence between the classes of emotional phenomena and the sphere of personality needs is established.
The criteria for constructing a methodology for diagnosing the state of the emotional sphere for children in the first and second periods of childhood are identified.
The features of the emotional sphere of children with different levels of creativity are determined.
Practical significance research - justification of where and how the materials of the work can be used: in solving one or another practical problem on their basis; in further scientific research; in the use of the data obtained in the process of training certain specialists, in school practice ....
The practical significance of the work may lie in the development of a system corrective work, programs for the formation of any quality, methods for diagnosing individual qualities, properties, states, in the development of psychological and pedagogical recommendations, etc.
Describing the practical significance of the study, it is necessary to designate the section practical activities, in which it is useful to apply the result of the study to correct a specific deficiency.
For example,
"The developed and tested program for the development of general educational skills of students can be used by teachers of general education schools to correct the poor progress of younger students."
The practical significance of the study is determined by the possibility of applying its results in practice secondary school»
The practical significance of research results depends on
the number and composition of users interested in the results of the work; scale of implementation (district, region, country);
the degree of readiness of the results for implementation (initial, main, final);
· the expected socio-economic effect of the implementation.
It can be classified into levels:
1. The practical significance of the study is very high:
a) the results of the research are important for the entire field of didactics, theory and education, school studies and other areas;
b) a very wide range of consumers are interested in the results of the study;
c) the scale of implementation is nationwide;
d) the implementation of the results obtained into practice is economically feasible;
e) the results of the research are ready for implementation, normative materials, programs, textbooks, instructions for the teacher's activity have been developed.
2. The practical significance of the study is low:
a) the results of the study are important for solving secondary particular methodological issues;
b) in the results of the study are not of interest to most users;
c) the scale of implementation - individual schools, classes;
d) the implementation of the results obtained into practice is not economically feasible;
e) the results of the study are not ready for implementation.
Formulation of the problem
The historian can study two kinds of historical possibilities. The first type is a possibility as an assumption about the events of the historical past unknown to us. Reality here does not take into account our conjectures. On the contrary, our conjectures and alternative models for filling in the "blank spots" of history should be consistent with reality. The second type of possibility implies a situation when a reality that has not yet materialized is conceived as the realization of one of the alternatives (from the Latin alter - one or the other of two - the possibility or necessity of something different in relation to the given one), and the possibility is conceived as properties of the existing historical situation, causing a change in this situation.
Our study is devoted to the second type of possibilities, its study in historical science and its properties as a phenomenon of historical consciousness and as a phenomenon of the historical past. The choice of topic is due to the formulation of the following initial problems: 1) What is the place and role of the idea of alternativeness historical development in domestic historical science? 2) Is the alternative development in the historical past only a useful applied analytical train of thought and is relevant only to intellectual historical reflection, or does it also have a self-suppressing theoretical meaning and a special concrete historical content? Such a statement of problems causes the presence of two interrelated and complementary components of the work - historiographic and methodological.
The alternativeness of historical development is one of the most functional phenomena of historical consciousness. Awareness or denial of the possibility of a different course of events is often the main reason for turning to the past. When does the realization of alternative historical development arise? Probably, when historians begin to explain the course of events not by the will of the gods, but by the will of man. For example, the already famous book by Niccolò Machiavelli “The Sovereign” (“Prince”) is full of arguments in the subjunctive mood. However, the search for the original historiographic origins of the theme of alternativeness is not included in our tasks. The work is devoted only to the period when the alternativeness of historical development is recognized as a special methodological problem that requires special study.
There are two fundamental opposite approaches in the study of the alternativeness of the past. In the first case, the historian does not go beyond the boundaries of the past, he considers the possibilities actually contained in the past. Moreover, answering the question “could it have been otherwise?”, different historians can give radically opposite answers in relation to the same historical situation. There is a different approach to understanding the alternativeness of historical development, associated with going beyond the boundaries of the past history and counterfactual modeling of events. In this case, the historian may be guided by opposing goals. The first purpose of addressing a failed history is to prove that only what was could be. The second goal is to prove that everything could have been different, and a variant opposite to the actual past could have been realized.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of the above approaches? How can they be applied in practice? historical research? What problems that cannot be solved with other approaches can be productively solved with the help of a study of alternative historical development? Which theoretical directions exist in the understanding of the multivariance of history in Russian historiography? How have these trends developed? What are the relationships and contradictions between them? What gaps exist in understanding the problem of alternativeness and how can they be filled? These are the main questions to which the dissertation is devoted.
Object and subject of research
The object of the historiographical part of the study is the work of domestic scientists devoted to the problem of alternative historical development. The subject of research here is the historiographic, theoretical, methodological and discursive characteristics of the development of the idea of alternativeness in Russian historical science.
The object of the methodological part of the study is the alternativeness of historical development as a phenomenon of historical consciousness and as a phenomenon of the historical past. The subject of research in this case - metaphysical, logical, socio-psychological foundations and empirical methods studying alternative historical development.
Goals and objectives of the study
The study has two main objectives.
The first goal: to trace the development of the study of the problem of alternativeness in Russian historical science and to characterize the experience gained in these studies. Within the framework of this goal, the following tasks are set: 1. To identify the stages of development and theoretical directions in the study of the problem of alternativeness. 2. Summarize and evaluate the contribution of each stage to the study of the problem. 3. Carry out a critical analysis of theoretical directions, using the methods of discursive analysis and system analysis. 4. Identify insufficiently studied aspects of alternative historical development.
The second goal: to conduct a methodological analysis of insufficiently studied aspects in the study of alternative historical development and try to fill in the gaps in this area. Within the framework of the second goal, the following tasks are set: 1. To establish the philosophical and metaphysical foundations of the phenomenon of alternative historical development. 2. To systematize the categorical-terminological and methodological apparatus used in the study of alternativeness. 3. Develop new methods for studying alternative historical situations.
Methodological grounds
Based on the previous experience of studying the problem of alternative historical development, an attempt will be made to develop new approach to understanding this problem. On this path, preference is given not to declaring the final answers to questions, but to setting criteria for the correct formulation of questions and answers. The complexity and multidimensionality of the problems required a comprehensive interdisciplinary consideration, but comprehensiveness should not destroy integrity and give rise to eclecticism. Therefore, the methodological principle of searching for the synthesis of various concepts used in comprehending the alternativeness of historical development will be dominant.
The reference in the work to the ideas of metaphysics in the works of classical philosophers is justified by the fact that the category of free will has a fundamental role for the concept of alternative historical development. The problem of free will belongs to those fundamental problems that cannot be not only solved but also posed outside of metaphysics. Since history, unlike philosophy, does not study meanings in general, but meanings “documented in time,” special attention will be paid to the conjugation of metaphysical foundations with empirical methods.
Research methods
The problem of alternative historical development was studied from the point of view of its socio-psychological origins, the continuity of author's schools, the formation and transformation of new approaches, so the main principle of the study will be historicism.
Since the development of a certain topic and idea is being studied, it was considered necessary to use the method of analyzing discursive practices (M. Foucault).
When studying an alternative situation, the historian deals primarily with information about the system of events. Therefore, methods of system analysis will be applied ( F. I. Peregudov, F. P. Tarasenko, V. N. Kostyuk).
One of the areas of research of historical alternatives is the use of quantitative methods, therefore, in the analysis of these areas, some principles of the methods of higher mathematics will be used. The works of A. N. Kolmogorov, S. A. Aivazyan, N. N. Moiseev are used as a basis for competent specialists.
Scientific significance of the topic
A non-alternative understanding of development at the conceptual level provides the researcher with a convenient support for selecting facts that confirm his theory and ignoring facts that disagree with it. Sometimes this can lead to the disappearance of motives for the search for new facts and new explanations for known facts. There are historical phenomena that, with an uncontested vision of history, do not even fall into the field of view of the historian.
So, according to P. Yu. Uvarov, in the French history of the 15th century, along with the winning model of a centralized monarchy and state-nation, there was a "Burgundian alternative", actually represented by the state of the Dukes of Burgundy. “This trend was not realized - the accidental death of Charles the Bold put an end to this "experiment", and Burgundy fell apart. This result seemed so convincing to supporters of the "linear model" of historical evolution that the history of the lands of the Duke of Burgundy acquired for them the status of a typical "misunderstanding", an instructive zigzag of history, corrected by the laws of historical necessity. From the French "General Histories" the history of the Netherlands in the 15th century. completely disappeared. This could be explained by the peculiarities of French historiography as an element of national identity, ”but our historians do not have a word about political history Burgundian state “There was no such state, because it was “wrong” and had no future.” Thus, insufficient knowledge of the problem of alternative historical development may impede the full development of historical science.
Common phrases that history does not have (does not know, does not tolerate, does not allow, does not like, it does not have) the subjunctive mood, or - historical science excludes (it is not applicable, not permissible in it) the subjunctive mood, literally flooded journalism, and partly the arguments of professional historians. This phenomenon could become an interesting object of study for memetics - a science that describes in terms of genetics the reproduction, distribution, selection, mutation and death of memes - elementary units, culture quanta. Such informational quanta - memes, can also be formulated ideas, literary clichés and phrases used by the authors of printed works. The life of a meme can be imagined by analogy with the trajectory of the spread of a virus, which can only exist in the cell of an infected carrier. The carriers of the meme "history has no subjunctive mood" in our case are the arguments of historians devoted to historical experience, "the lessons of history", the choice made by the subjects of historical activity in critical situations, unexpected changes in the course of events under the influence of accidents.
Characteristically, following the statement about the inadmissibility of the subjunctive mood in history or in front of them, arguments very often sound precisely in subjunctive. This, on the one hand, shows the need for this very “subjunctive mood” in the study of the historical past, and on the other hand, indicates the absence, or at least the underdevelopment, of methodological reflection on this problem. For a large part domestic historians the whole methodology on this issue most often comes down to another meme, namely: “to study what could have been, in order to understand why everything happened the way it did and not otherwise.” It seems that the problem of alternative historical development, due to its importance and complexity, should not be reduced to the functioning of memes.
The degree of knowledge of the problem
There are still no generalizing historiographical works on the study of the problem of alternativeness in Russian historical science. Some authors are given very short reviews for several jobs. Meanwhile, the critical mass of author's publications on the topic of alternativeness has reached such a limit that a special study in this area is required.
Russian historical science has accumulated a fairly extensive and original experience in studying the problem of alternativeness, which needs to be generalized, creatively comprehended and developed. Here, first of all, it is necessary to consider the contribution of methodologists M. Ya. Gefter, A. Ya. Gurevich, I. D. Kovalchenko, M. A. Barga, E. M. Zhukova, B. G. Mogilnitsky, P. V. Volobueva, Yu. M. Lotman. From latest works distinguished studies of S. A. Ekshtuta and L. I. Borodkin. The works of N. Ya. Eidelman, A. D. Sukhov, V. B. Kobrin, E.A. Nikiforova, E. G. Plimak, I. K. Pantina, I. M. Klyamkina, G. G. Vodolazova, Ya. G. Shemyakina, V. V. Ivanov, I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada A. S. Akhiezer, A.V. Korotaeva, M. S. Kagana, V. B Lukov and V. M. Sergeev, Yu. P. Bokareva, S. F. Grebenichenko, S. B. Pereslegin and many others.
Also attracted are the works of foreign authors who addressed the problem of alternativeness in history: M. Blok, D. Milo, R.Koselleck, L. Mises, A. J. Toynbee, R. Vogel, E. Anxel, A. Demanda, K. Maxi, N. Fergusson and others.
Despite a solid history of development, the new direction scientific analysis has not yet been finally formed not only in domestic science, but also abroad. There is not only a verified methodology, but even a generally recognized name. The concepts of “alternative development”, “multi-variant history”, “alternative studies”, “retro-alternative studies”, “retro-prognosis”, “virtual history”, “failed history”, “counterfactual modeling” are used. There is no agreement between all these directions. Such concepts as “historical possibility”, “historical probability”, “historical accident”, “freedom of choice” are widely used, but theoretically insufficiently comprehended and methodically not mastered. The dissertation work is an attempt to overcome these shortcomings.
The novelty of the dissertation research
The novelty in the historiographic part of the work, in addition to the first generalized study of the problem, was contained in the application of the method of analyzing discursive practices to the study of the role and place of the ideas of K. Marx and F. Engels in research on the problem of alternative historical development in Soviet historical science. Discursive analysis is also used in characterizing the understanding of alternativeness in history by M. Ya. Gefter and in criticizing the use of the concepts of synergetics in historical knowledge.
The novelty was also contained in the development of a correct definition of historical chance, in some new principles for classifying historical possibilities, in highlighting such an angle of the problem as the ratio of the choice of the historian and the choice of the subject of historical activity, in posing the problem of the use of mathematical methods incorrect from the point of view of mathematics and system analysis in the study of historical alternatives and in criticism carried out from these positions.
When searching for metaphysical philosophical foundations for the theoretical study of alternatives in history, areas of intersection or complementarity were established, as well as methods of mutual verification or falsification for antinomianism (Kant), dialectics (Hegel), intuitionism (A. Bergson, N.O. Lossky, S.A. Levitsky), existentialism (S. Kierkegaard, M. Heidegger, J.-P. Sart), positivism (P. S. Laplace) and neo-positivism (L. Wittgenstein, K. Hempel). Such a synthesis in relation to the problem of alternativeness in history is also a novelty.
When using probabilistic logic for the theoretical study of the alternativeness of historical development, the complementarity and mutual verifiability of the concepts of probability of Leibniz, A. A. Markov, R. Mises, A. N. Kolmogorov, R. Carnap, J. Keynes, G. Reichenbach, L. Zadeh in the study of historical probability. Based on the concepts of probabilistic logic, an attempt will be made to develop a new method for empirical analysis of the probabilistic picture of the historical situation.
Relevance of the research topic
The scientific significance of the problem of alternative historical development is closely related to topical issues modern socio-economic and political practice. Failure to understand the multivariance of historical development in the past leads to a misunderstanding of the multivariance of the future in the context of the constant variability of the current situation, which can lead to irreversible errors. Suffice it to recall the declaration that there was no alternative to shock therapy in Russia in the early 1990s. Political levers were thrown to hush up other opinions. Everyone knows the catastrophic result for Russia. It was the logic of no alternative that gave rise to the theory of Russia's permanent “lag” and “catching up” with the West, which does not recognize that this is not a lag, but other forms of development.
Of course, the non-recognition of alternative development is characteristic not only of the historical consciousness of Russians. For example, guided by the concept of no alternative, advisers to the US presidents defeated the economy of Africa and Latin America in the name of their own good, for the sake of progressive development, but development along one path in which there can be no alternatives.
In search of historical sources and historical lessons for the current situation, historical consciousness tends to turn to analogies with the past in the subjunctive mood. So in 1990-1991 the image of Stolypin became very popular. The former "reactionary" and "hangman" turned into a hero. Then, in August 1991, the focus shifted February revolution. Then they started talking about the danger of a "new October".
MN Pokrovsky's thesis that "history is politics overturned into the past" retains its relevance despite all the political and historiographic upheavals. Historical arguments in the subjunctive mood have become another weapon in the “war for the past”. Failed, but possible history has become one of the "battlefields" in the information wars of modern propaganda. In this regard, the study of the historiographical and methodological aspects of alternativeness in history, in addition to scientific, can also have social and practical significance, namely: to contribute to the accumulation of a theoretical base for planning and conducting “attacks” and “counterattacks” in information wars, which the historian is unlikely to be able to fully stay away from.
What was perestroika-era glasnost if not a large-scale information war aimed at discrediting the Soviet regime? And the theme of alternative history (for example, “if the communists did not do what they did in the past, then we would live better now”) was one of the main ones in this war.
In a generalized form, the processes taking place with humanity at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries are usually called the term “globalization”. Globalization involves many development alternatives and opposing tendencies. One of the main trends modern world the decentralization of political power is recognized, due to the avalanche-like course of the scientific and technological revolution, its global nature and the universality of its impact on all aspects of society, the massive development of means of communication, the transnational nature of economic centers that reduce the need for traditional centers of political power. At the same time, the most efficient and effective subjects of decentralization state power at the current, first, stage of globalization, ethnic and nationalist groups are recognized. This is due to the fact that established state borders, as a rule, do not correspond to real ethnic, linguistic and territorial units. Encouraging influence on such groupings can already in the near future lead to the formation of new small state formations and open up the possibility of their participation in various economic unions.
With regard to the topic of alternativeness, such trends were reflected primarily in PR campaigns aimed at supporting centrifugal and separatist movements in the territory former USSR. In state and ethnic entities that have ever enjoyed independence or belonged to another state, there are very common arguments that life in these regions would be better if they had not been annexed to the USSR or Russia sometime. Or that life in countries that did not become part of the USSR would be worse if they were included in the USSR (for example, Finland, which claims to return Karelia). Such reasoning is especially typical for the Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Tatarstan, etc. To make sure of this without raising all the press, it is enough to make a corresponding request on the Internet, for example: subjunctive&&history&&country name.
For Russia, one can see three development options regarding the processes of globalization. The first is a refusal to participate in globalization, that is, a kind of autarky, which means the destruction of Russia as a power. This option has little chance, and if implemented, it will be reversible. The second option is self-elimination from the main roles in globalization and turning into its passive object. That is, Russia is becoming a raw material appendage, "the tenth contractor of third corporations." This option is very beneficial for many small officials and market operators in Russia, and, of course, for the international economic elite. And the third, the only worthy option is active globalization, the creation of some kind of Russian strategy.
Looking at these perspectives from the point of view of using the problem of the alternative historical past in political propaganda, we can assume that the forces striving for the implementation of the second option will try to belittle the historical role of Russia, disavow its potential for mobilization in critical historical situations and overestimate this potential for the West, and construct in Russians disbelief in the revival. When choosing the third option, it becomes necessary to respond to such attacks, and there are already examples of such confrontation. Thus, in the article “The Caribbean Crisis: Counterfactual Modeling of a Possible Outcome”, I. A. Kopylov, Head of the Group of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and S. A. Modestov, Advisor to the Personnel Department of the President of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Political Sciences, criticize the arguments of American historians that the behavior of the Khrushchev administration in the early 60s from the point of view of the military-strategic potential was a bluff and an unjustified adventure, and the United States, in the event of a tougher response, could defeat USSR. The authors of the article note that “the increased interest in unrealized historical opportunities is associated among American colleagues with the missed opportunities of the strong, who overestimated the potential of the weak. All the counterfactual versions of the past they consider have in mind the same upsetting circumstance: with the enemy it was possible to resolve the issue earlier, easier and cheaper.
The main thing that a historian who finds himself in a situation of information warfare should not forget is that the imposition of political interests on historical science is fraught with distortion of the past and undermining confidence in historians as servants of scientific truth. This should be taken into account in the current conditions of another alternative situation in the development of society.
Timeline of the study
The chronological framework of the study can be determined on two grounds: historiographical and concrete historical.
The first chapter is devoted to Russian historiography since the mid-1960s. until 2001. In the second chapter, works are considered, starting from the end XIX century..
The specific historical framework is determined by the themes and plots that were touched upon by domestic and foreign authors in connection with the theme of alternative history. This framework covers fragments of human history from primitive to modern times. For the same reasons, the territorial-spatial historical framework is not limited, although the greatest attention is paid to Russian and European history.
Thesis structure
The structure of the dissertation is subordinated to the goals and objectives of the study. The work consists of an introduction, 2 chapters, a conclusion, a list of sources and references. The first chapter is historiographical with methodological comments. It consists of 8 sections, the information in which is systematized by chronology and authorship of the works. The second chapter is methodological with historiographical comments. It consists of 5 main sections. The information in the second chapter is systematized according to the problematic principle.
The sources of historiographic research are the works of domestic authors who studied the theoretical or specific historical aspects of the problem of alternative historical development, including materials round tables dedicated to this topic. When analyzing the methodological aspects of the problem of alternativeness, the works of foreign historians on this topic were used, as well as the philosophical works of representatives of German classical philosophy, positivism, Marxism, existentialism, intuitionism, neopositivism, and postmodernism. Works of domestic and foreign mathematicians were used as auxiliary material in applying the concepts and methods of higher mathematics.
Loading...